YATSENYUK URGES AMBASSADOR TO FINALIZE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KYIV 002189 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/24/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL UP SUBJECT: YATSENYUK URGES AMBASSADOR TO FINALIZE U.S.-UKRAINE ACTION PLAN Classified By: Ambassador John Tefft for reasons 1.4 (b,d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) During his introductory call with Ambassador Tefft, presidential candidate Arseniy Yatsenyuk told us his campaign is broke and he has been pushed out of the media by the major candidates. He claimed that fraud in the form of vote-buying could account for 5-7% of the votes in the upcoming presidential elections, adding that the gap between front-runner Yanukovych and PM Tymoshenko has grown to 16%. He said Tymoshenko has already offered him the Prime Ministership, but he did not commit to accepting it. Yatsenyuk believes that the next government must enact a new parliamentary electoral system and make a concerted effort to fight corruption. In foreign policy, he urged the Ambassador to finalize a U.S.-Ukraine action plan, without which Russia will swallow Ukraine with the assistance of the EU, which he does not trust. End summary. Campaign Out of Funds -------------- ¶2. (C) During a December 22 introductory call with Ambassador Tefft, former Foreign Minister and Front of Change presidential candidate Arseniy Yatsenyuk told us that his campaign is out of funds. He blamed this on PM Tymoshenko's success in monopolizing campaign sponsors for her own presidential bid. Yatsenyuk also claimed that he no longer has access to the media because the major television stations are supporting other candidates. He specifically mentioned Inter channel's support for Tymoshenko. Yatsenyuk conceded that he made mistakes with his unorthodox campaign, which he characterized as "too complicated" for Ukrainian voters to understand. He has learned from the mistakes of his "first race," however, and plans to remain in politics. Vote-Buying: The New and Improved Election Fraud -------------- -- ¶3. (C) Yatsenyuk expressed his concern that efforts by both Tymoshenko and Party of Regions (Regions) presidential candidate Viktor Yanukovych to buy votes could amount to between 5 and 7% of the ballots in the upcoming elections. He told us about reports that these two main candidates have offered between 200 and 500 hryvnias (USD 25-60) cash, in addition to food and other necessities, for people's votes. During the economic crisis, he added, when 70% of Ukrainians make less than 1000 hryvnias (USD 125) per month, it is ;difficult to turn down such a lucrative offer. Gap Between Front-Runners Widening -------------- ¶4. (C) According to the latest internal polling numbers that he has seen, Yatsenyuk claimed that the gap between front-runner Yanukovych (at 34%) and Tymoshenko (at 18%) has grown to 16%. He is still almost tied for third with Serhiy Tihipko (at 7% and 6.7% respectively),followed by Communist candidate Petro Symonenko at 4%, and President Yushchenko and Parliamentary (Rada) Speaker, Volodymyr Lytvyn, at 3%. ¶5. (C) Yatsenyuk also claimed that FM Poroshenko had already offered him the Prime Ministership on behalf of Tymoshenko. Yanukovych's camp has also requested his support. He would not confirm whether or not he would accept Tymoshenko's offer. "I want to support Ukraine," he added, "not become a technical candidate for either of them." Domestic and Foreign Priorities for New Government -------------- -------------- ¶6. (C) Yatsenyuk argued that the most important task for the new government is to change the parliamentary election system from one using a closed-list. The new President must then call new parliamentary elections, he said, and the new electoral system must also be applied to local elections. Finally, the new government must take tangible steps to fight corruption, an idea Yatsenyuk has incorporated into his latest campaign slogans. ¶7. (C) Regarding foreign policy, Yatsenyuk expressed his complete distrust for the EU and his disdain for the energy agreements Tymoshenko made with Russia, which he believes gave that country full access to the Ukrainian market and a hefty percentage of Ukraine's IMF loan. He wants to see a number of improvements in Ukraine's relations with the EU, the foremost being visa-free travel. In addition, he wants a balanced FTA with the EU and joint economic projects, including an energy consortium. Finally, he argued that the KYIV 00002189 002 OF 002 EU must engage Ukraine in a political dialogue. Action-Plan with U.S. Essential for Ukraine's Sovereignty -------------- -------------- ¶8. (C) Yatsenyuk bemoaned the lack of a U.S.-Ukraine action plan and argued that without one Russia would eventually swallow Ukraine. He pointed to Russia's recent agreements with Belarus and Kazakhstan for a single economic space, which he argued pens Ukraine in on one side. Germany, Italy and France's strong relations with Russia pens Ukraine in on the other. Comment -------------- ¶9. (C) Yatsenyuk appeared relatively confident of his future in Ukrainian politics, despite his flagging support and public disagreements with PM Tymoshenko. He clearly believes that his Front of Change political party will do well in the next (as yet unscheduled) parliamentary elections, even going so far as to predict that the party would win 70 seats. This success, he believes, would secure him a position of relevance in the next government's agenda. TEFFT