EARLY RADA ELECTION TO FOLLOW PRESIDENTIAL VOTE?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KYIV 002116

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/05/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL UP
SUBJECT: EARLY RADA ELECTION TO FOLLOW PRESIDENTIAL VOTE?

Classified By: Acting Political Counselor Kirk Bennett for reasons 1.4(
b,d)

SUMMARY
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1. (C) President Yushchenko and leading presidential
candidates are calling for early parliamentary elections to
quickly follow the January 17 Presidential contest.
Opposition leader and presidential front-runner Yanukovych
believes that early Rada elections could swing control of
parliament to his Party of Regions. President Yushchenko
hopes to pressure the Rada into passing his new draft
constitution with the threat of early elections, while other
candidates may hope that early elections allow them to enter
parliament at the head of new electoral blocs. Prime
Minister Tymoshenko has vowed to try and block early
elections, but acknowledges that they are still likely to
occur. The Ukrainian constitution provides the President
with only four justifications for dissolving the Rada, all of
which a new president may struggle to engineer. End Summary.


PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES CALL FOR EARLY RADA ELECTIONS
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2. (U) Presidential front-runner and opposition Party of
Regions leader Viktor Yanukovych is calling for early
parliamentary elections to follow the January presidential
vote. Yanukovych said that a new majority coalition led by
Party of Regions (Regions) in the Rada and a new Regions
Prime Minister are needed to ensure stability and the success
of his policies. Regions Deputy Faction head Borys
Kolesnykov claimed in a recent press conference that the
momentum of a Yanukovych presidential victory could propel
Regions to an outright majority if early Rada elections are
called in the spring.


3. (U) President Yushchenko is also calling for early
parliamentary elections to be held next year. During his
re-election campaign kick off, Yushchenko vowed to dissolve
the Rada if it refused to adopt his new draft constitution
within 100 days. Although Yushchenko's deadline would fall
in or after the last days of his term, the President
explained that early Rada elections could also include a
nationwide referendum on his proposed new constitution.
Passage of a new constitution is a key plank in Yushchenko's
election platform.


4. (U) Presidential candidates Arseniy Yatsenyuk, currently
in a distant third place, and Serhiy Tihipko have both said
that they would immediately dissolve the Rada if they win the
presidential election. Yatsenyuk said that his victory would
be a vote of no-confidence in the current government and
Rada, which he described as a "closed joint-stock company."
Yatsenyuk promised that early elections would be held with
open-party lists, to ensure that voters had a say in which
representatives within parties gained seats in the new
parliament. Tihipko said that early elections would allow
new political leaders to emerge and end the domination of
Ukrainian politics by Yanukovych, Yushchenko, and Prime
Minister Tymoshenko.


PM AGAINST EARLY ELECTIONS, BUT SAYS THEY ARE "LIKELY"
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5. (C) Prime Minister Tymoshenko has promised to do what she
can to prevent early elections, but conceded in a recent
press appearance that she may be unable to stop them. Our
Ukraine-People's Self Defense (OU-PSD) MP Roman Zvarych, a
former Yushchenko confidant who has now joined Tymoshenko's
Batkivshchyna Party, told us that if Tymoshenko wins the
presidential election, there would be no early parliamentary
election. He explained that OU-PSD and Rada Speaker Lytvyn's
bloc would stick with Tymoshenko's bloc (BYuT) to hold
together the current coalition. OU-PSD and Lytvyn bloc risk
not returning to parliament if new elections were held, and
would prefer the status quo to the challenge of a new
campaign. Zvarych said that early elections would only
benefit Regions, which believes it can increase its share of
Rada seats, and presidential candidates Yatsenyuk and
Tihipko, who have a chance to enter parliament at the head of
small parties under their leadership.


6. (C) Pro-coalition OU-PSD MP Kyryllo Kulykov told us that
a Tymoshenko victory would probably not precipitate early
elections. He believes that a large number of Regions MPs,
those closest to Ukrainian oligarch Rinat Akhmetov, would be
willing to work closely with a President Tymoshenko. Kulykov
said that this would buttress her effort to keep the current
coalition together and dissuade smaller parties from

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defecting from the majority. He said this cushion of votes
would be especially important when the coalition would have
to choose a new Prime Minister and cabinet. According to the
law on the Cabinet of Ministers, the entire cabinet must
resign if the PM resigns. Kulykov theorized that Tymoshenko
might be willing to back a PM candidate from Regions, such as
MP Andriy Kluyev, in return for the stability that the
break-away faction of Regions could bring the coalition.


EARLY ELECTIONS FACE PROCEDURAL, LEGAL HURDLES
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7. (U) The Ukrainian Constitution only allows the President
to dissolve the Rada for four reasons, the first three of
which are governed by Article 90. First, the failure to form
a new majority coalition within thirty days of the fall of
the previous coalition, or following elections. Second, the
failure of a new coalition to form a new cabinet within sixty
days of the resignation of the previous cabinet or after a
new majority coalition is formed in the Rada. Third, the
Rada can be dissolved it fails to hold a single plenary
meeting for thirty days during a regularly scheduled plenary
session. In each of these scenarios the President has the
right, but is not obligated, to dissolve the parliament and
call for early elections. The Constitution empowers only the
President to dissolve the Rada, and does not make provision
for parliament to dismiss itself.


8. (C) The final justification for Rada dissolution is
contained in Article 82, in that at least 300 MPs must accept
their parliamentary mandate for the Rada to be legitimate.
The early Rada election in 2007 was precipitated by the mass
resignation of pro-Western MPs and the withdrawal of their
election lists from the Central Election Commission (CEC),
which prevented the vacated seats from being refilled. MP
Zvarych told us that after that 2007 election, the laws and
regulations governing election lists and MP resignations were
changed to make it more difficult to repeat this maneuver.
He said that now each MP resignation must be accepted by the
Rada in a floor vote, and that parties could no longer
withdraw their election lists from the CEC.


COMMENT
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9. (C) Whoever wins Ukraine's presidency will struggle to
find a legal justification to dissolve the Rada without the
backing of a majority of MPs. If Tymoshenko becomes
President she will be well-positioned to prevent early
parliamentary elections, regardless of what Rada leaders
decide.
TEFFT