FALL OF YATSENYUK LETS TYMOSHENKO FOCUS ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KYIV 002115

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/03/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL UP RS
SUBJECT: FALL OF YATSENYUK LETS TYMOSHENKO FOCUS ON
YANUKOVYCH

REF: A. A) KYIV 1727

B. B) KYIV 437

Classified By: Political Counselor Colin Cleary for reasons 1.4 (b) & (
d).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) Political observers, rival campaigns and internal
advisers of Front of Change head Arseniy Yatsenyuk agree he
has no hope of progressing to the second round of the
January/February 2010 presidential election. Once considered
by many disenchanted voters as the new western-leaning
reform-minded candidate to support, Yatsenyuk's selection of
Russian campaign consultants with ties to Party of Regions
head Viktor Yanukovych's 2004 presidential campaign is noted
by all as a fatal mistake. His fall allows Tymoshenko to
focus on the daunting task of closing the gap with
front-runner Yanukovych. End Summary.

Disappointment and Disillusion
--------------


2. (C) Yatsenyuk's Foreign Policy advisor, Olexander
Shcherba, confided to us on December 1 that the Front of
Change head and former Parliament (Rada) Speaker's campaign
is falling apart after its impressive late spring/early
summer launch. Disappointment and disillusion have overtaken
the majority of his local campaign team. Shcherba told us
that Yatsenyuk's announcement at Front of Change's November
28 party congress that he will not seek the Prime
Ministership dashed hopes staffers had of finding jobs in the
next government. Many are already looking for other options.

Russian Advisors Rule
--------------


3. (C) Shcherba characterized Yatsenyuk the candidate as
stubborn and difficult to advise. "He believes he already
knows everything and does not listen to us." One group he
does listen to, however, is his Russian campaign consultants
(ref A). According to Tymoshenko Bloc (BYuT) MP Andriy
Shevchenko, this team came onto the scene and quickly
alienated the campaign's base of grassroots volunteers. The
Russian team is led by Vladimir Granovskiy, who, analysts
tell us, worked under Party of Regions MP Andriy Klyuyev on
Yanukovych's team in 2004. Shcherba blamed the Russians for
the campaign's failure, saying that they mistakenly believed
that the unorthodox style, colors and messages of the
campaign would appeal to Ukrainians. He stopped short,
though, of agreeing with a rumor that the Granovskiy team was
planted by the Kremlin to specifically sabotage Yatsenyuk.


4. (C) Yatsenyuk polled well in the summer and seemed a
viable challenger to Tymoshenko for second place and entry
into the second round against Yanukovych. However, PENTA
political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko told us the Russian
advisors appealed to his ego and got him to buy into their
strategy. Fesenko said this move had destroyed Yatsenyuk's
chances. Yatsenyuk changed teams, changed messages, and
seemed to retreat into his "own little world." The Russians
convinced Yatsenuk, previously known as a pro-Western liberal
and Yushchenko protege, to advocate an amorphous "Greater
Europe" concept, with Ukraine at its core, rejecting NATO and
the EU as unachievable for Ukraine.

Mistakes Were Mostly Yatsenyuk's
--------------


5. (C) Fesenko contended that attacks from other candidates
and political figures, such as the statements and poster
campaign backed by the mayor of Uzhhorod that Yatsenyuk was
of Jewish decent, lowered Yatsenyuk's support in the polls.
He countered, however, that most of the damage was done by
the candidate himself. He turned eastward instead of
strengthening his traditional base of support in the west.
Yatsenyuk's shift to the east cost him his base of support in
the west, which was comprised of disenchanted voters who
looked to him as a western-minded alternative to the
disappointing President Yushchenko and PM Tymoshenko.
Shevchenko disagreed that the "Jewish" message hurt
Yatsenyuk, but said it was an outside factor he could point
to when trying to focus the blame away from himself.
"Arseniy is arrogant and ambitious and does not consider
criticism when making his decisions. Arseniy destroyed his
own chances."


6. (C) Western NGO representatives told us that when he was
shopping for campaign consultants, Yatsenyuk originally came
to them asking for the "silver bullet" that would get him

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elected. When told it would take tremendous effort and hard
work, he turned to the Russians, who appealed to his ego but
eroded his niche as the new western-leaning reform-minded
candidate.

Coulda Been a Contender
--------------


7. (C) The result of these machinations is that Yatsenyuk has
lost realistic hope of reaching the second round of the
election, observers believe. Fesenko said that Yatsenyuk had
dropped from 12-14% support in June to about 6-7% now. This
causes the Tymoshenko campaign to breathe a little easier,
Shevchenko told us, as it means they have cinched the Prime
Minister's advancement to the second round. "We saw him as a
real threat this summer, when he was polling high. Our
tactics worked somewhat to take support away from Arseniy,
but he honestly did most of our work for us," Shevchenko
added. With Yatsenyuk's declaration that he has no interest
in becoming PM, many wonder how influential a politician he
will even be after the presidential election. Shcherba told
us Yatsenyuk is currently working on fine-tuning his ideology
(something, we noted, most candidates try do before they
launch their campaign) and on building the Front of Change
party's regional base to focus on the (as yet unscheduled)
parliamentary elections.

Third-Place Feeding Frenzy
--------------


8. (C) Yatsenyuk's free-fall has left up for grabs the
suddenly coveted third place in the first round of elections:
trailing far behind the two front-runners, there are four or
five candidates who hope to secure the most votes among the
also-rans, and use a third-place finish as a springboard for
their parties in the future elections, or even for a run at
the PM job. Fesenko echoed earlier rumors that Yushchenko is
now intent on winning third place in order to position the
Our Ukraine party for a stronger showing in the next
parliamentary elections.

Comment: Peaking Too Soon
--------------


9. (C) Yatsenyuk's is a classic case of peaking too soon.
Disillusionment of his supporters, like Shcherba, has
increased since November. Yatsenyuk's plans for the final
weeks of the campaign reflect his campaign's confusion:
instead of reaching out to voters in the west to recoup his
base, he will spend this time in the Russia-friendly Luhansk
and Donetsk regions.
TEFFT