TYMOSHENKO APPEALS TO EMOTIONS, PATRIOTISM IN HER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KYIV 001874

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/26/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV UP
SUBJECT: TYMOSHENKO APPEALS TO EMOTIONS, PATRIOTISM IN HER
PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN KICK-OFF

Classified By: Political Counselor Colin Cleary for reasons 1.4 (b/d).

SUMMARY
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1. (C) Before an estimated 150,000 followers and spectators,
Prime Minister Tymoshenko accepted on October 24 her party's
nomination for president. The event was a four-hour, highly
staged, nationally televised extravaganza on Independence
Square (the site of the 2004 Orange Revolution) featuring a
variety of well-known entertainers. Speeches focused on
three central themes: economic recovery and development,
European integration, and Ukrainian identity. Tymoshenko
vowed to fix the economy that, she maintained, was broken by
others; integrate Ukraine into Europe while maintaining an
equal and dignified relationship with Russia; and help the
common folk -- from whence, she stressed, she came -- build a
better life. Tymoshenko relied heavily on patriotism and
nationalist symbolism to make her trademark emotional appeal.
However, with only twelve weeks to go and behind at least
ten points in the polls, Tymoshenko will have to make full
use of her legendary campaigning skills while making a
substantive, and not merely symbol-rich, case if she is to
overtake front-runner Yanukovych. End Summary.

TYMOSHENKO "LOVES YU..."
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2. (SBU) During a four-hour, tightly-choreographed media
extravaganza on Independence Square, PM Yuliya Tymoshenko
accepted the Bat'kivshchyna (Motherland) party's nomination
for president on October 24, in front of an estimated 150,000
spectators. (Bat'kivshchyna is the core of the Tymoshenko
Bloc). The event, which featured speeches from political,
cultural, and international figures interspersed with
performances from popular Ukrainian recording artists, was
broadcast to the crowds on screens scattered throughout the
square. Tymoshenko relied heavily on patriotism and
nationalist symbolism, wearing her signature white (for
purity) with traditional Ukrainian embroidery down the lapel.
Her speech was delivered without notes or, as far as we
could tell, teleprompters, which likely explains its length
(fifty minutes),lack of organization, and the subsequent
absence of the text from the internet. Speakers emphasized
three themes: economic recovery and development, European
integration, and homespun populism -- while the popular
performers continued her "Love Yu"-themed concert campaign
that has toured the country. (Note: Advertisements depict a
heart followed by the Cyrillic letter "Yu" - the first letter
in "Yuliya.")

SHE'LL FIX THE ECONOMY THAT OTHERS HAVE BROKEN
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3. (SBU) Team Tymoshenko was particularly anxious to rebut
the charge that the PM is responsible for the floundering
Ukrainian economy. The head of the Bloc Yuliya Tymoshenko
(BYuT) faction in the Rada (parliament),Ivan Kyrylenko,
praised Tymoshenko's determination to fix the economic
problems caused by President Yushchenko. People's Movement
of Ukraine (Rukh) leader Borys Tarasyuk told the audience
that "Tymoshenko alone can lead the country out of political
chaos and economic disorder." Rector of the Kyiv Polytechnic
Institute Mykhailo Zhurovskiy praised her efforts to attract
new industry to Ukraine and her support for economic
development. National Academy of Sciences President Borys
Paton underscored her leadership in promoting innovation and
research.


4. (SBU) Tymoshenko continued this message during her
acceptance speech, promising to stabilize the hryvnia, finish
paying back depositors in the Soviet-era "Sberbank," and
normalize Ukraine's volatile energy market. She called upon
Ukraine to rely more on its own coal reserves than imported
natural gas and protect the Black Sea's oil and gas deposits
from foreign hands. Appealing to students and young
professionals, she vowed to stabilize the economy and lower
interest rates so that they can buy apartments instead of
paying exorbitant rents.

UKRAINE'S PATH LEADS TO EUROPE
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5. (SBU) The second major theme of the evening was
Tymoshenko's ability to integrate Ukraine into Europe.
Pictures of her with various European heads of state and
religious leaders were scattered on the screens behind the
stage throughout the evening. A pre-recorded speech by a
representative of the European People's Party was broadcast
during the congress and touted her singular ability to
further Ukraine's European integration. The first President

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of independent Ukraine, Leonid Kravchuk, called on her to
"take the baton of Ukrainian independence" from him and
continue the fight.


6. (SBU) Tymoshenko pledged to bring Ukraine closer to
Europe, but without provoking its "traditional and friendly
neighbor, Russia." She promised "equal and dignified"
relations with Russia that are "open and without a hidden
agenda." She also vowed to protect Ukraine, preventing
anyone from "either humiliating or touching (Ukraine's)
national interests, even with a finger."

JUST A SMALL-TOWN GIRL WHO MADE IT GOOD
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7. (SBU) Tymoshenko appealed to the emotions of the voters
and stated numerous times that she understood them because
she was just like them. Underscoring her humble beginnings
and "rags-to-riches" story, she spent about half of her
50-minute speech recounting her impoverished childhood as one
of seven living in a one-room apartment; her work as a
teenager in a tire factory in Dnipropetrovsk (unloading tires
"three times larger than I");and discussing how she put
herself through school, started her own small business,
became an executive in the energy sector, and then set out to
rid the sector of corruption while she was the Deputy PM for
Fuel and Energy. She also reminded the crowd of her
imprisonment during the Kuchma presidency on allegations of
fraud as further proof of her status as a victim, outsider
and crusader. She talked of receiving letters in prison from
imprisoned children who were there "because they had stolen
bread to feed their families," while oligarchs who had stolen
the riches of the state were enjoying their freedom.


8. (SBU) To appeal to voters in the east, congress organizers
invited the Director General of the Rovenki coal mine in
Luhansk, Yuriy Zyukov (bedecked in full military decoration)
to speak about Tymoshenko's deep concern for the plight of
miners, and her willingness to "follow them into the mine" to
see first-hand the unacceptable conditions under which they
had to work. Zyukov applauded her leadership in passing
legislation to protect the industry and its workers.
Tymoshenko also made a point of standing with BYuT MP Natalia
Korolevska from Luhansk as she watched the concert following
her speech.


9. (SBU) Tymoshenko recounted that she had recently met with
Pope Benedict XVI and asked for his blessings on Ukraine, and
had prayed for the country in Jerusalem and with the leaders
of the myriad Orthodox churches. She criticized current
President Yushchenko for his failure to realize the promise
of the 2004 Orange Revolution and for becoming another pawn
to the oligarchs. She also attacked Party of Regions (PoR)
leader Yanukovych, reminding the crowd of his attempt to
falsify the 2004 Presidential election.

COMMENT: FULL OF SOUND AND FURY, BUT SIGNIFYING...?
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10. (C) Tymoshenko's campaign achieved an impressive turnout,
gambling successfully that the weather would cooperate with a
late-October outdoor venue. However, Tymoshenko took the
rostrum two hours into the event, after the sun had set and a
chill wind had begun to blow. While she made a rock-star's
entrance onto the stage, her fifty-minute speech, disjointed
in parts, seemed, as it went on, to dampen the fervor of even
some loyal supporters. There were no breaks for applause,
and a less-than-exuberant ovation at its finish. (Some
speculate that she was suffering from a fever.)


11. (C) We continue to be struck by the number of people --
pundits, diplomats, and politicians -- who assume, almost as
an article of faith, that Tymoshenko will come from behind
and win the election because she is a superior campaigner to
front-runner Yanukovych. The fact is she is ten points or
more behind with less than twelve weeks to go. The crowd
turned out, but she failed to electrify them. Despite her
pledge to fulfill the promise of the Orange Revolution which
she blames Yushchenko for squandering, Tymoshenko has to
overcome the burden of having been PM at a time of severe
economic crisis. Tymoshenko will need all of her legendary
campaigning skills -- not fully in evidence October 24 --
plus more reliance on a substantive platform and not simply
symbolic appeals, if she is to overtake Yanukovych.
PETTIT