CHERKASY: WOULD-BE SWING OBLAST LEANS TOWARD

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KYIV 001784

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/16/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL UP
SUBJECT: CHERKASY: WOULD-BE SWING OBLAST LEANS TOWARD
TYMOSHENKO

Classified By: Political Counselor Colin Cleary for reasons 1.4 (B) & (
D).

Summary
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1. (C) Cherkasy, an oblast located in the center of Ukraine,
has yet to be fully drawn into the presidential campaign.
However, local experts speculate that Cherkasy voters will
support Prime Minister Tymoshenko -- as they have in the past
two Rada elections. Local observers express concerns that
either frontrunner -- Tymoshenko or Party of Regions (PoR)
leader Yanukovych -- could tighten up on freedom of speech
once in power. Some suspect Tymoshenko of politicizing
police forces in preparation for the election. Central
Ukraine can be seen, to some degree, as Ukraine's Ohio. The
presidential candidate who prevails there stands a strong
chance of being the ultimate winner. End Summary.

The Center
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2. (SBU) Cherkasy oblast is located along the Dnipro River
in the heart of Ukraine's central region, which historically
does not feature the strong political preferences of the east
and west. The Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc (BYuT) won a plurality
in Cherkasy in both the 2006 and 2007 Rada elections, and a
majority supported Yushchenko throughout the 2004
presidential election. Interlocutors predicted Tymoshenko
would lead the oblast in the presidential election and do not
expect a close race in what could otherwise be a swing
oblast. About three percent of Ukraine's population lives in
Cherkasy oblast, where the economy is based mostly on
agribusiness and non-metallic mineral reserves.

Mayor Sees Tymoshenko Election as "Tragedy"
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3. (C) On October 9, we met with several local figures
including Cherkasy city mayor Serhiy Odarych, who does not
affiliate with any major party and took the darkest view of
the current political environment. A sign outside Odarych's
office declared it a "corruption-free zone" and stated, "we
do not accept bribes here." Odarych told us that while the
Ukrainian system provides a framework for democracy, threats
to freedom remain because "no democratic parties exist."


4. (C) Both Odarych and editor-in-chief of local newspaper
Vechirni Cherkasy Stanislav Zhurylo underlined the danger of
having parties that were so dependent on the persona of the
leader, noting in particular that BYuT would cease to exist
without Tymoshenko. Replacing Yanukovych is at least up for
discussion in PoR, whereas such a discussion would never
happen in BYuT, said Odarych. He opined that the current
personality-based politics are a part of Ukraine's transition
to democracy, and that it would take three or four more
election cycles to dispense with personality-based parties
and consolidate democracy.


5. (C) Odarych accused Tymoshenko of taking ten steps
backward in the democratic process, and said it would be a
"tragedy" if she were elected president. In contrast,
Odarych named PoR as Ukraine's "most democratic" party
because its internal competition prevents any one force from
becoming too powerful. He said the single biggest threat to
Ukrainian democracy, however, would be a BYuT-PoR union
because of its nexus of business and political control.

Tymoshenko Politicizing Law Enforcement?
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6. (C) Mayor Odarych asserted that Tymoshenko, via her ally
Minister of Interior Affairs Yuriy Lutsenko, is attempting to
bring law enforcement into the political process. Odarych
claimed that Cherkasy police are reporting to central
authorities about who is staying overnight at various
locales, and surmised that these reports are being used to
aid in Tymoshenko's election preparations. (Comment.
Odarych gave the impression that the reports focus on the
political visits and activities of BYuT party rivals,
although he did not make it explicit. End Comment.) Deputy
chairman of the Cherkasy chapter of the election watchdog
Committee of Voters of Ukraine (CVU) Serhiy Pasichnyk also
noted that Cherkasy police forces have recently become more
active in the oblast, calling it a signal of Tymoshenko's
intent to increase control.

Tymoshenko May End Up Ahead...
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7. (C) Zhurylo told us that campaigning has so far been

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limited to billboard advertising, partially due to a lack of
public engagement on the election. Zhurylo noted
Tymoshenko's ability to inspire people and speculated that
Tymoshenko would reinvigorate her support among Cherkasy
residents once she begins her campaign in earnest and visits
the oblast. Zhurylo opined that Cherkasy residents do not
believe her current slogan, "she is working," but they
probably are sympathetic to the idea that she is being
prevented from working and will vote for her as the lesser of
two evils. BYuT MP and deputy Rada speaker Mykola Tomenko
hails from Cherkasy and is very popular there, noted Zhurylo,
who expects Tymoshenko to try to use Tomenko's local
popularity to her advantage.

BYuT's Outreach to Grassroots
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8. (C) Zhurylo revealed to us that Tymoshenko is launching an
initiative intended to work as an all-Ukrainian community
council that helps BYuT to be more responsive to the public
as well as purge problem members, and that the council would
be unveiled at the national level between October 20-24 in
Kyiv. According to Zhurylo, BYuT is reaching out to
political activists like him across the country - regardless
of whether they are in the BYuT camp - to join the council
and serve as advisors who help to make the party more
accountable by keeping it abreast of local concerns.

...And Leave Yanukovych Behind
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9. (C) Interlocutors estimated that Yanukovych trails
Tymoshenko in the oblast by around ten percent. Zhurylo said
that Yanukovych's visit to Cherkasy on September 17 was
poorly attended - which could have resulted from a reported
scheduling mixup - and failed to attract new support for the
party. Most attendees were already PoR supporters who
arrived with flags in hand. Zhurylo surmised that political
infighting at the local level had rendered some of PoR's
regional representatives more cooperative than usual on some
issues, but Pasichnyk told us that PoR was in the process of
reorganizing its Cherkasy branch by bringing in new
management from Donetsk and Kyiv.

Potential Threats to Freedom of Press
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10. (C) Several contacts told us that the next Ukrainian
administration may attempt to assert more control over the
press, which is widely seen as open and competitive since the
Orange Revolution. Zhurylo said that Yushchenko has been an
ineffective president, but he did not meddle in the media
business. As proof that freedom of speech is currently
protected, Zhurylo said he hardly ever gets calls from the
governor with instructions on what to publish. When he does
get calls, the message is not "do not publish," but rather,
"please include our perspective in your article."


11. (C) Odarych cited Tymoshenko's recent attempt to ban
advertising critical of her government, calling it a warning
of the types of tactics one should expect of her if elected
president. Both Pasichnyk and Zhurylo expected the
introduction of limited media controls under a Tymoshenko or
Yanukovych presidency; Zhurylo commented that neither would
be able to resist inserting some controls because "it's in
each of their natures to tell the media what to do and how to
exist." Pasichnyk also expected new limits on freedom of
assembly and small business development under a Tymoshenko or
Yanukovych presidency.

Comment
--------------


12. (C) East and West Ukraine are each clear in their
presidential preferences regarding a potential
Tymoshenko-Yanukovych matchup in a second round. Central
Ukraine is something of a Ukrainian Ohio -- it could go
either way. Whichever candidate prevails in Central Ukraine
will likely become the next president. Concerns about the
potential for a more heavy-handed approach by Tymoshenko or
Yanukovych to the media or police may be overdrawn, but are
worth keeping an eye on.
PETTIT