KYIV: B1B2 VALIDATION STUDY RESULTS-OVERSTAYS UP

UNCLAS KYIV 001767 SIPDIS DEPT FOR CA/FPP (BILLINGSR),CA/VO/F/P, DS/CR/VG, EUR/UMB, G/TIP DEPT ALSO PASS TO KCC DHS FOR CIS/FDNS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: CVIS KFRD CPAS CMGT ASEC UP SUBJECT: KYIV: B1B2 VALIDATION STUDY RESULTS-OVERSTAYS UP ¶1. (U) Summary: Embassy Kyiv concluded a validation study of B1/B2 visas issued between June 1, 2007 and May 31, 2008. During this time period, Post issued 21,331 B1/B2 visas. The validation study showed a total overstay rate of 4 percent, with a 3.8 percent margin of error. The study was intended to track overstay trends in comparison with Post's previous B1/B2 validation study, which was conducted on applicants issued from December 1, 2006, through May 31, 2007. The prior study showed a total overstay rate of 2.7 percent. Thus, Post experienced an increase in the B1/B2 overstay rate, although the increase was within the margin of error for the statistical sample. End summary. SAMPLE, DATA COLLECTION, AND METHODOLOGY ¶2. (U) Post conducted its validation study on 1289 randomly selected applicants from the pool of 21,331 B1/B2 issuances from June 1, 2007 to May 31, 2008. Post submitted the sample group to CA/FPP for computer verification of entry/exit records. In 112 cases (nine percent),computer records showed no travel by the applicant. Post verified the presence in Ukraine of 93 of these applicants through phone calls, and could not verify the location of the remaining 19. For the analyzed period, Post refused approximately 13,004 B1/B2 applications, for a refusal rate of 38 percent. The study was conducted with a 95 percent confidence rate and a margin of error of 3.8 percent. RESULTS ¶3. (U) As of September 1, 2009, Post confirmed that 4 percent (58 out of the 1289 in the sample) of applicants issued during the study period stayed in the United States. Virtually all of these overstays (48 out of 58) were "illegal" overstays, meaning the applicants in question did not adjust status. The remaining 10 adjusted to LPR status, F1 status, or were pending an adjustment at the conclusion of the period covered by the verification study . ¶4. (U) The 4 percent overstay rate reflects a slight increase over the rate from the previous B1/B2 validation study, which was conducted on applicants issued from December 1, 2006 through May 31, ¶2007. The prior study showed a total overstay rate of 2.7 percent, with a 1.8 percent "illegal" to overstay rate. However, the increase is within the margin of error for the statistical sample. PROFILE OF TRAVELERS WHO OVERSTAYED ¶5. (U) Post reports the following characteristics concerning the B1/B2 travelers who stayed in the United States. Top destinations for travelers who overstayed: New York 24 percent Illinois 14 percent California 10 percent Florida 7 percent New Jersey 5 percent Top occupations of travelers who overstayed: Students 16 percent Retired 14 percent Purpose of travel for travelers who overstayed: Business 28 percent Visit Amcit relatives 28 percent Visit friends 16 percent Tourism 10 percent Visit LPR relatives 9 percent Conference 5 percent ¶6. (U) Given the relatively small number of overstays, Post cannot make strong generalizations about patterns in overstay cases. However, the results provide some useful information about the characteristics of applicants who overstay, and will prove helpful as we continue to analyze and understand the Ukrainian applicant pool. PETTIT