FORMER FM TARASYUK ON RUSSIA, POLITICS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KYIV 001204

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/17/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL UP
SUBJECT: FORMER FM TARASYUK ON RUSSIA, POLITICS

Classified By: Political Counselor Colin Cleary. Reasons 1.4 (b/d).

Summary
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1. (C) Former Foreign Minister Borys Tarasyuk, like other
Western oriented Ukrainians, is looking for further
reassurance that the "re-set" of relations with Russia will
not come at Ukraine's expense. Tarasyuk regards Medvedev's
security proposal as an effort to divide Europe from the US.
He sees PM Tymoshenko as the "least bad" option for
President. Challenger Yatsenyuk is not up to job. Regions
Party leader Yanukovych would appease Russia at the expense
of Ukrainian interests. End Summary.


Reaction to Obama Visit to Moscow
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2. (C) Polcouns met July 14 with Former FM Borys Tarasyuk,
who also serves as leader of the center-right Rukh party and
Chairman of the Rada European Integration Committee.
Tarasyuk expressed concern that Ukraine might diminish in
importance to the US as a result of the "re-set" of relations
with Moscow. Nonetheless, he agreed President Obama's
remarks in Moscow regarding Ukraine were reassuring. What
worries Tarasyuk is the prospect that private meetings
between President Obama and Putin and Medvedev might have
been more conciliatory toward Russia. We noted that the
Administration's public message is the same as its private
message. Tarasyuk said Ukraine would seek reaffirmation of
its continued importance to the US during the visit of the
Vice President July 20-22.


Medvedev Security Proposal: Divide Europe from the US
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3. (C) Tarasyuk lamented that the constant bickering between
President Yushchenko and PM Tymoshenko had damaged Ukraine's
image and its attractiveness as a partner for the West.
Tarasyuk contended Russia had successfully co-opted Germany
and France to block the GOU's NATO aspirations. Medvedev's
call for a new security architecture was designed to divide
Western Europe from the US. It is reminiscent of the Soviet
policy of the early Reagan years regarding missile
deployments in Europe. Medvedev and Putin seek to "destroy
the existing system" of Euro-Atlantic security. Georgia
revealed a "new quality" of Russian aggressiveness. Russia
repeated this aggressiveness last winter by cutting off the
gas. Tarasyuk said that the Western response, especially
that of EU members, to Georgia and the gas crisis had been
inadequate. This emboldens the Kremlin to keep it up.

Post-START
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4. (C) It is unfortunate, Tarasyuk underlined, that Ukraine
is not participating in post-START talks. Ukraine would have
been an ally for the US in the process. As it stands,
Ukraine will be left without security assurances. The
Russian leadership (he cited Putin) has already threatened
Ukraine with targeting by Russian nuclear weapons if Ukraine
were to join NATO. This was in violation of the assurances
contained in the "Budapest memorandum" -- under which Ukraine
gave up its nuclear arsenal -- but had engendered little or
no response from the West.


Fifth Column
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5. (C) In confronting Russia, Ukraine is hobbled by its
domestic divisions, Tarasyuk said. Indeed, Ukraine has a
large "fifth column" that is working to serve Russian
interests and undermine the Ukrainian state. The pro-Russian
line of the Party of Regions and Lytvyn Bloc -- not to
mention the Communists -- risks turning Ukraine into a
Russian satellite. Yanukovych, Lytvyn and others seem to be
competing publicly to see who can be the most subservient to
Russia. Tymoshenko, by contrast, is ready to deal with the
Russians, but would not sell out to them. Yushchenko has
proven to be out of touch regarding Russia (and in general)
and is "unable to realistically assess the situation."

Crimea
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6. (C) Russia will not do in Crimea what it did in South
Ossetia and Abkhazia, Tarasyuk believes. For one thing the
Ukrainian central government is operating in Crimea. The
Kremlin will prefer to use surrogates, such as pro-Russian,

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pro-Kremlin NGOs, to stir up trouble. Ukrainian military
forces deployed in Crimea would be are enough to deter
Russian aggression. "Our military is in bad shape;" he said
-- "but so is theirs." Tarasyuk believes it is essential for
the Russian Black Sea Fleet to depart Sevastopol on schedule
in 2017.

Presidential Politics: Tymoshenko Best of the Lot
-------------- --------------


7. (C) Turning to politics, Tarasyuk said Yanukovych is
"doing nothing" -- and benefiting in the polls from it. The
Party of Regions merely criticizes the government and
presents cynical populist measures to the Rada, such as the
demand to increase the minimum wage at a time of severe
budgetary crisis. Tarasyuk said he had warned Tymoshenko
last year that her popularity would suffer if she did not
give up the premiership, but she insisted on staying. She is
populist too and not above lying (as most recently in
comments to the media in which she denied that she had
discussed scrapping direct Presidential elections as part of
the failed coalitions negotiation with Regions).
Nonetheless Tarasyuk said he would likely endorse Tymoshenko
for President; she is the "least bad" option available.

Achievements of Rukh
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8. (C) Despite the damage done to the legacy of the Orange
Revolution by the Tymoshenko-Yushchenko rift, 2004 had
ushered in real and enduring change in key areas. Freedom of
speech and assembly and the right to free elections are now
secure. Tarasyuk underlined that his Rukh party had been at
the center of the transformation, indeed "no other Ukrainian
political force has done more." We mentioned the Rukh
posters all around Kyiv, featuring his face and celebrating
the party's twentieth anniversary. Tarasyuk said that some
in the party want him to run for President but he did not
expect to.

Yatsenyuk
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9. (C) Tarasyuk said that Presidential challenger Arceniy
Yatsenyuk (a fellow member of the Our Ukraine Faction) was
not ready to serve as President. Tarasyuk dismissed
Yatsenyuk's resume as overblown. He had served only short
stints as Foreign Minister and as Rada Speaker -- but had
achieved little. "We can't turn the country over to him,"
Tarasyuk concluded.

Comment
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10. (C) Tarasyuk, twice Foreign Minister, is a perennial on
the short list to return to the post (currently vacant) once
again. US statements about no spheres of interest clearly
helped to assuage some of Tarasyuk's concerns. Nonetheless,
like others who strongly favor a Western orientation for
Ukraine, Tarasyuk will require continued reassurance - and
public signals from senior US officials that Ukraine's
partnership with the US has not suffered.
PETTIT