UKRAINIAN MFA VIEWS ON CORFU -- AND CONCERNS ABOUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L KYIV 001040 E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/18/2019 TAGS: OSCE PREL NATO PGOV ECON ETTC UP SUBJECT: UKRAINIAN MFA VIEWS ON CORFU -- AND CONCERNS ABOUT POST-START REF: STATE 59226 Classified By: Political Counselor Colin Cleary. Reasons 1.4 (b/d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) The Ukrainian MFA agrees with U.S. views on the benefits of a "constructive dialogue" on European Security at the OSCE Corfu informal Ministerial. However, the MFA Security Department Director took the opportunity of our discussion about Corfu to reiterate concerns about Ukraine being shut out of the post-START process and left without security guarantees. End Summary. Corfu -------------- ¶2. (C) Polcouns met with Oleksandr Nikonenko, Director of the MFA Arms Control and Military Cooperation Department, June 16 to seek support (ref) for using the OSCE informal Ministerial in Corfu to launch a constructive dialogue on ways to enhance European Security. Nikonenko endorsed the U.S. approach, raising no objections. He added that the dialogue was a good idea since Medvedev's statements on European Security were vague. Nikonenko confirmed that Acting FM Khandogiy would attend the Ministerial. ¶3. (C) Embassy also discussed our position on Corfu with Maryna Mikhailenko, Counselor and Head of the International Relations Division of the MFA's Political Directorate. Mikhailenko said that the GoU position on the Russian proposal for European security was still in formation -- as, in fact, is the proposal itself. She commented that there is not enough substance to the proposal for Ukraine to react to, and went on to stress that Ukraine is quite satisfied with existing European security dialogues and mechanisms, specifically, the OSCE, EU, and NATO. She noted that these organizations have comprehensive principles which Ukraine shares, and also well-established mechanisms for dialogue and conflict resolution. ¶4. (C) Mikhailenko agreed that some aspects of existing institutions could be improved, and observed that the security dimension suffers from lack of trust and lack of efficiency. Russia itself, she said frankly, bears responsibility for creating this situation, and she commented that it is not clear how European countries should regard the Russian proposal for new mechanisms that are redundant and whose principles Russia appears to have violated. Ukraine welcomes the opportunity to hold an open-ended discussion, and sees the OSCE as the correct place to have such a �00A;dialogue. GUAM and Corfu -------------- ¶5. (C) Mikhailenko also raised a problem with the organization of the Ministerial. She said that both the Ukrainian Ambassadors to Greece and to the OSCE had raised with the Greek MFA and the CIO the question of an invitation for GUAM to attend Corfu. Mikhailenko said that Ukraine, like the U.S., believes there are economic dimensions to security in Europe that should be part of the discussion. GUAM is a relevant multilateral actor for a significant region of Europe, and GUAM's members each are party to a "frozen conflict". Mikhailenko said Ukraine's request for an invitation for GUAM appears to have been rebuffed, yet both the CIS and CSTO have been invited to attend. Mikhailenko said that the Ukrainian Ambassadors in Athens and Vienna were informed by their Greek interlocutors that the invitations to the CIS and CSTO were extended personally by the CIO, and because they are "security" related organizations. The GoU does not find it appropriate that some regional organizations be included and others excluded, but does not intend to pursue the matter further. Post-START -------------- ¶6. (C) Director Nikonenko took the opportunity of our discussion on European Security to reiterate Ukraine's concerns about being "excluded" from the post-START process. He contended that neither Belarus nor Kazakhstan sought to participate in post-START talks but that Ukraine still did. Ukraine would like the U.S. to change its decision to conduct the post-START talks bilaterally. If it can not, Ukraine seeks security guarantees from the U.S. to compensate for Ukraine's exclusion. The guarantees would replace the assurances contained in the 1994 Budapest Memorandum (endorsed by all nuclear powers),which accompanied Ukraine's decision to give up nuclear weapons. ¶7. (C) Nikonenko said it was clear that there was no near-term prospect for NATO membership for Ukraine. Nonetheless, Ukraine needs a security "anchor" -- a "new umbrella." There is also no doubt Russia seeks to restore its influence and is working to bring Ukraine under its sway. To combat this, Ukraine needs a security guarantee from the U.S. Such a guarantee could be open to others, as was the Budapest Memorandum. Nikonenko maintained that Ukraine could not remain indefinitely between CSTO and NATO; a security guarantee from the U.S. would, however, "buy time." Nikonenko clamed that there would be broad support in Ukraine for such guarantees (though he admitted that public opinion was against NATO membership). ¶8. (C) Acting FM Khandogiy would welcome the chance to discuss this with Secretary Clinton if a bilateral meeting could be arranged in Corfu, Nikonenko said. If that is not possible, the GoU would seek other opportunities to discuss its concerns with the U.S. We replied that at the U.S. was open to discussion with Ukraine on security issues and that we would pass the request along. Comment -------------- ¶9. (C) The plea for U.S. security guarantees takes place less than a week after the Rada failed to pass legislation needed for "Sea Breeze" and other military exercises involving foreign forces in Ukraine to proceed. On one hand the MFA seeks U.S. security guarantees; on the other, the specter of military exercises with the U.S. and other NATO partners is so politically toxic that the Rada runs away from it. The desire for a security guarantee from the U.S. reflects the views of President Yushchenko and the MFA (one of only two Ministries which answer to him). However there is little indication of a broader consensus in Ukraine behind the idea -- or any notable public discussion of it. PETTIT