KUWAIT AVOIDS MAJOR BLACK OUTS BUT SEES EVER

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KUWAIT 000823 SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR NEA/ARP, EEB DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY FOR OFFICE OF AFRICAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN POLICY GINA ERICKSON E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ENRG EPET SENV KU SUBJECT: KUWAIT AVOIDS MAJOR BLACK OUTS BUT SEES EVER INCREASING DEMAND REF: A. KUWAIT 687 ¶B. KUWAIT 722 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: While Kuwait has avoided electricity shortages so far this summer, marginal excess capacity is very limited and increasing demand makes launching two long-planned power projects imperative. Movement forward towards awarding one of these, the two gigawatt (GW) Subiya power plant, is a positive step to begin addressing probable supply shortfalls. In the longer term, however, without greater focus on controlling rampant demand, unconstrained electricity consumption threatens to substantially erode Kuwait's oil and gas revenues as more and more production is allocated for domestic electricity generation. The focus on supply-side solutions is evident in Kuwait's recent LNG import deals and moves to explore civilian nuclear power. End Summary. No Blackouts Yet -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Despite earlier Ministry of Electricity and Water (MEW) concerns (ref a),Kuwait has avoided any major blackouts this summer, through limited demand management, slightly cooler temperatures, and good luck. Kuwait's maximum available generating capacity is 10.9 gigawatts (GW). According to Ministry of Electricity and Water Director for Planning, Suhaila Marafi, the Ministry is currently projecting summer peak demand at about 10 GW, though so far it appears as if demand will be slightly lower (in June, for example, it was 9.96 GW). ¶3. (SBU) Although MEW has been able to keep supply ahead of demand, the margin is small. Marafi noted that power plant shut downs or spikes in demand over about 10.5 GW would force the ministry to engage in "load shedding," i.e., selective power shut downs. She emphasized that MEW was scrupulously maintaining the generators, both because it has little spare capacity and because of the generally poor quality of the fuel used (heavy fuel oil and crude). Unsustainable Growth? -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Although Kuwait has the fifth largest proven oil reserves in the world, it is using an ever-increasing amount of its oil and gas production domestically. Kuwait Petroleum Corporation Managing Director for International Marketing Abdulatif Al-Houti told CDA that the Kuwait Petroleum Company (KPC) sells MEW an average of 40-50,000 barrels per day of crude (rising to around 100,000 barrels per day in the summer),about 170,000 barrels of heavy fuel oil and 80-100,000 barrels per day of diesel. In addition it provides the Ministry with around 300-400 million standard cubic feet (MMSCF) per day of natural gas. All told, KPC provides MEW with around 500,000 barrels per day of oil equivalent. ¶5. (SBU) MEW projections are for six percent average annual growth in demand (not counting the industrial "mega projects" or increased oil sector demand). This would essentially double demand by 2021 and triple it by 2030, with corresponding increases in demand for fuel. Ambitious development plans and essentially free electricity (2 fils per kilowatt hour or about 2/3 of a cent, with MEW costs of about 34 fils per kilowatt hour) help to ensure that Kuwait's electricity woes will only get worse. In a July meeting with Econoff, MEW Assistant Undersecretary Ahmad Al-Jassar projected that power demand would exceed power supply until 2012, assuming that both the two GW Subiya power plant and the 4.8 GW As-Zour North power plant came on line on time. ¶6. (SBU) In July, Kuwait's new Minister of Electricity and Water told Ambassador that he intended to move forward on several power projects in order to get ahead of the problem (ref b). On August 18, Kuwait's Central Tender Committee moved forward a bid for the two GW Subiya Power Station project. Although the project still has hurdles yet to run, this is an encouraging sign. The Minister expected to tender the five-phase 4.8 GW As-Zour north project before the end of the year (ref b). That tender decision is apparently still waiting for a decision on whether or not to offer it under BOT (Build, Operate, Transfer) terms or as a turnkey project. KUWAIT 00000823 002 OF 003 Brother Can You Spare a Barrel? -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Projected growth in electricity demand is one of the reasons behind Kuwait's push to develop its natural gas reserves. It is also the reason behind KPC's push to build the "fourth refinery" (the tender for which was cancelled earlier this year. The refinery, which some in the Kuwait body politic deemed to be not commercially viable, was designed to provide low-sulfur fuel oil to the power plants. According to some oil sector officials, the refinery project will be again presented to the Supreme Petroleum Council after the new members are named to that body. High electricity demand also explains Kuwait's interest in continuing to negotiate a deal with Qatar for LNG for future summers, even though negotiations for LNG provision during the summer of 2008 broke down over what the Kuwaitis term "unacceptable terms." Kuwait entered into a three-month arrangement to import LNG via Shell for the summer months and is negotiating with Shell for next year as well. Finally, of course, increasing demand explains Kuwaiti interest in exploring alternative sources of energy, whether nuclear or renewable. One option that does not appear to be on the table, so far, is buying electricity from Qatar over the partial GCC electrical grid. According to Marafi, Qatar does not have excess power and -- indeed -- purchased 240 MW from Kuwait on the day the grid was connected. Demand Side Management -------------- ¶8. (SBU) The MEW is also looking at more effective demand side management, including changing building standards to encourage more fuel efficient houses. Over the last year, the MEW has limited monthly connections to 50-60 MW per month to keep new connections within its projected increase. MEW has a multi-million dollar budget line to update electricity meters and is working with the Kuwait Institute for Scientific Research (KISR) on a pilot project to control air conditioners (shutting them off for seven minutes at a stretch during peak times to reduce demand). MEW also directly controls temperature controls in Kuwait's largest mall, making it one of the few malls that isn't chilled to the point that sweaters are a necessary fashion accessory. Although MEW and other officials acknowledge that the pricing structure does not encourage conservation, they do not believe that Kuwait's populist parliament would support reducing the subsidies. (Note: Kuwaiti per capita electricity consumption is among the highest in the world as the resource is essentially free at two-thirds of a cent per KWH, and even then many citizens fail to pay their bills without penalty. It is not uncommon for Kuwaitis to leave on vacation over the hot summer months leaving the lights on and the multiple air conditioning units for their large, unoccupied residences going full-blast. End Note.) Comment -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Kuwait's power woes result not only from exceedingly low tariffs and very high per capita consumption, but also from problems with tendering large energy sector projects. The current tender process for the Subiya power project is the third such tender since 2006. The tender process for the fourth refinery project was scrapped several months after three multinational construction firms had been awarded contracts. Planning for Project Kuwait, Kuwait's ambitious plan to develop its northern oil reserves, has dragged on for almost two decades -- most international oil companies have given up and moved on. That said, Kuwait's power needs will continue to grow rapidly, and there appear to be both policy grounds for, and commercial opportunities in, working with them on both supply and demand side management. On the supply side, the Kuwaitis are looking for more environmentally friendly alternatives to high sulfur fuel oil and heavy crude. On the demand side, there is a market opportunity for innovative technologies and programs as well ) but probably not a fix that would bring tariffs more in line with the cost of production. End Comment. ********************************************* ********* For more reporting from Embassy Kuwait, visit: visit Kuwait's Classified Website at: http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Kuwa it KUWAIT 00000823 003 OF 003 ********************************************* ********* WILLIAMS