AMIR CONSTITUTIONALLY DISSOLVES PARLIAMENT; PM

C O N F I D E N T I A L KUWAIT 000270 SIPDIS NEA/ARP, E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/14/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KU SUBJECT: AMIR CONSTITUTIONALLY DISSOLVES PARLIAMENT; PM SHAYKH NASSER'S FUTURE IN DOUBT REF: KUWAIT 255 Classified By: CDA Pete O'Donohue for reasons 1.4 b and d Parliamentary Dissolution -------------- ¶1. (C) On the heels of a March 16 Cabinet resignation (reftel),Kuwaiti Amir Shaykh Sabah on March 18, citing the need to "safeguard the security and stability of the nation," ordered the dissolution of the National Assembly. The Amir also confirmed that the dissolution would be conducted in accordance with Article 107 of the constitution which states that "elections for the new Assembly shall be held within a period not exceeding two months from the date of dissolution." Parliamentary elections will likely take place on or around May 17 -- the first anniversary of the last election. Subsequently, parliament will likely convene in early June, at which time we expect a new Cabinet will be introduced. CP Likely to Take on PM Role -------------- ¶2. (C) Press reports and accounts from embassy interlocutors support the likelihood that the Amir will invite his half-brother Crown Prince Shaykh Nawaf to take over the dual-posts of crown prince and prime minister. (Note: Until 2003, Kuwaiti crown princes also served as prime ministers. In 2003, however, it is widely believed that to accommodate the ambitions of current Amir Shaykh Sabah and in recognition of the failing health of the then crown prince, the positions were separated, allowing for Shaykh Sabah to become the first PM in Kuwaiti history not to bear the title of crown prince. End note.) Most credible reports suggest that PM Shaykh Nasser -- after forming five unsuccessful governments since his ascension in 2006 to the position of prime minister -- will not retain his post. He is currently considered head of the caretaker government, the tenure of which will expire with the official naming of the new cabinet in the next few months. ¶3. (C) Most Kuwaitis breathed a sigh of relief as they learned of the Amir's plan to dissolve parliament constitutionally. Kuwaitis by and large are proud of their democratic traditions and have expressed a great deal of concern that the country, if the Amir were forced to disband parliament indefinitely, would spiral towards anarchy. Though dissolution and resignations have become almost routine, this latest round witnessed an increase in drama and uncertainty; with blame laid equally at the feet of the agenda-driven MPs and the weak government as led by now-resigned PM Shaykh Nasser. Comment -------------- ¶4. (C) CP Shaykh Nawaf (jokingly dubbed Shaykh Khawaf: meaning "fearful" or "faint-hearted"),reportedly did not want to take on the dual-hatted CP/PM role and laid out a series of conditions prior to considering it. One such reported condition was limited engagement with the National Assembly. Though deemed weak and "simple," he is not an unpalatable selection to many Kuwaitis, mainly due to his reputation for honesty -- his tenure as Minister of Interior was remarkably untainted by scandal or corruption. In contrast, PM Shaykh Nasser's tenure in the cabinet was wracked with allegations of corruption, incompetence and indecisiveness. The most important difference, though, -- and this is what Amir Shaykh Sabah may be banking on -- is that under the constitution, Shaykh Nawaf as crown prince, would not be subject to interpellation. End comment. ********************************************* ********* For more reporting from Embassy Kuwait, visit: visit Kuwait's Classified Website at: http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Kuwa it ********************************************* ********* O'DONOHUE