NAJIB LEADS TAKEOVER OF OPPOSITION-HELD STATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KUALA LUMPUR 000078

SIPDIS

FOR EAP/MTS AND INR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/06/2019
TAGS: PGOV KDEM MY
SUBJECT: NAJIB LEADS TAKEOVER OF OPPOSITION-HELD STATE

REF: KL 42 -- BY-ELECTION VICTORY BOOSTS OPPOSITION

Classified By: Political Counselor Mark D. Clark, reason 1.4 (b and d).

Summary and Comment
--------------


1. (C) Deputy Prime Minister Najib and his ruling UMNO party
have succeeded in retaking the state government of Perak, one
of five under opposition People's Alliance (Pakatan) control
after the March 2008 election. The Najib-led takeover
followed the defection of three Pakatan state assembly
members and the return to UMNO's ranks of one assembly member
who briefly crossed over to the opposition. Two of the
Pakatan defectors face charges stemming from an
anti-corruption sting operation, a factor allegedly used to
convince them to switch support. On February 5, the Sultan
of Perak used his constitutional authority to declare that
Perak Chief Minister Nizar no longer commanded majority
support in the state assembly and instructed Nizar to resign.
Police moved in immediately to take control of state
government buildings. Nizar announced he would not step down
and, in unprecedented manner, various political figures
criticized the Sultan's decision. The Sultan proceeded to
swear in Perak's new Chief Minister, UMNO/National Front (BN)
assemblyman ZAMBRY ABDUL Kadir, late on February 6. Police
fired tear gas to disperse protesters who attempted to block
the road to the palace.


2. (C) Comment: The retaking of Perak will boost Najib's
reputation within UMNO as a strong leader ahead of his
scheduled late March ascension as Prime Minister. The Perak
events, however, will not improve the ruling party's public
standing given the allegations of bribery and manipulation
surrounding the defections. Najib's actions in this case are
reminiscent of the hard-ball tactics of former Prime Minister
Mahathir, and are being interpreted as a foreshadow of
politics to come under Najib's future administration. Public
debate continues over the Sultan's actions; in outcome these
were within the bounds of the state's constitution but
arguably went beyond the ruler's traditional formal role.
Popular sentiment in Perak appeared to favor another
constitutional option -- fresh elections, leading to unusual
public criticism of the Sultan's decision. End Summary and
Comment.

A Showdown Looms in Perak
--------------


3. (C) In the March 2008 general elections, the opposition
Pakatan coalition won control of an unprecedented five
states. These included the northern state of Perak, which
Pakatan won by a slim three-seat margin (31 Pakatan seats to
BN's 28, all but one from the UMNO party). Shortly after the
election, UMNO confidentially identified Perak for takeover,
according to senior UMNO officials who spoke with us.
Reports surfaced of attempts to woo at least three Pakatan
state assemblymen to cross over to BN. (Note: There are no
laws in Malaysia preventing elected representatives from
defecting to rival parties, and the Federal Court previously
ruled that the Constitution guarantees freedom of association
in this regard. End Note.) The January 25 defection of UMNO
state assemblyman Nasharudin Hashin to Pakatan seemed a
significant setback to the ruling party. The last time an
elected UMNO representative defected to the opposition was
in 1989. Nasharudin's defection precipitated the resignation
of UMNO's state chief and DPM Najib immediately stepped into
the role. Najib, assisted by Cabinet Minister Zahid Hamidi,
launched a rapid counterattack.


4. (SBU) On January 26, a day after Nasharudin defected to
Pakatan, two Pakatan state legislative assembly members,
Jamaluddin Mat Radzi and Mohd Osman Mohd Jailu, ceased all
contact with their party colleagues. In 2008, federal
anti-corruption officials had targeted both members in a
sting operation, and their trial had been scheduled to begin
February 10. This situation led to speculation that they had
cut a deal to switch allegiances in exchange for favorable
treatment at the trial. A third Pakatan state
representative, Hee Yit Foong, known to be disgruntled over
state appointments, also disappeared from the scene at the
same time. Meanwhile, Minister Zahid announced a "special
allocation for development" of US $83,000 (RM 300,000) from
the federal government to each of the BN state legislators in
Perak, and a similar allocation to all BN state

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representatives (but not those of opposition Pakatan) across
the country as part of the national economic stimulus package.


5. (SBU) Recognizing a threat to Pakatan's precarious
majority, on February 1 the Perak state assembly speaker said
he received resignation letters from two of the "missing"
Pakatan representatives. The speaker informed the Electoral
Commission and requested that by-elections be held for the
vacant seats. The Pakatan representatives emerged to say
they had been forced to pre-sign the resignation letters
before the election, and the Election Commission overruled
the speaker's call for by-elections. On February 3-4, the
three Pakatan representatives declared they had left their
respective parties and become independent, while the BN
representative who had defected to Pakatan on January 25
announced his return to UMNO.

High Noon
--------------


6. (SBU) Under the Perak state constitution, the state's
Sultan holds the formal authority to recognize the chief
minister and his government. Both DPM Najib and Pakatan
Chief Minister Nizar met separately with Sultan Azlan Shah on
February 4 and again jointly on February 5. Nizar asked the
Sultan to dissolve the state assembly and call fresh
elections, a constitutional option and one that traditional
rulers typically have acceded to in exercising a purely
formal role. For his part, Najib appeared with 28 BN
representatives and the 3 newly-independent representatives
to physically demonstrate BN's majority. At the conclusion
of the meetings, the palace released a February 5 statement
noting that the Sultan had decided Nizar no longer held the
confidence of the majority of assembly and requested Nizar to
resign. Police moved in immediately to take control of the
state government headquarters.

Unusual Criticism of the Sultan
--------------


7. (SBU) The Sultan's decision, normally respected in public
once made known, generated unprecedented criticism. Joined
by leaders of the three opposition parties within Pakatan,
Nizar remained defiant. With more melodrama than intent,
Nizar stated he and the people would "never recognize this
illegal BN government" but would fight "to the last drop of
our blood." He took exception to the Sultan's refusal to
dissolve the assembly, claiming that this contradicted the
Sultan's own writings on this constitutional matter and a
ruler's "purely formal" role. Opposition leader Anwar
Ibrahim, while noting his respect for the Sultan, said,
"Considering the spirit of constitutional monarchy and
parliamentary democracy, this regime change, if allowed, will
be a disaster to Malaysia's democratic system." Spiritual
leader of the Islamist PAS party issued a stark warning that
noted the demise of monarchy in Nepal and elsewhere:
"Therefore the Royal institution in Malaysia must be careful.
In Perak they should not be influenced by outsiders in
resolving the crisis. Allah is watching and he will not side
with those who are cruel"


8. (SBU) Some UMNO voices also criticized the takeover.
UMNO elder Tengku Razaleigh lambasted the tactics used as "an
insult to the public's intelligence." Former PM Mahathir,
exhibiting his selective memory of his own machinations
during 22 years in power, took UMNO to task for bringing over
persons facing corruption charges. Additional UMNO officials
and other commentators expressed concern that the party had
damaged its reputation with the takeover in Perak. Prime
Minister Abdullah urged Pakatan to accept the outcome, "just
as we accepted the results of the (2008) general election."
Abdullah also expressed particular appreciation for the Perak
Sultan not dissolving the assembly, seeming inadvertently to
bolster the general view that UMNO and BN would not fare well
if new elections were held now.

New Chief Minister Sworn In; Tear Gas in the Air
-------------- ---


9. (SBU) Sultan Azlan Shah proceeded to swear in Perak's new
Chief Minister, UMNO/BN assemblyman ZAMBRY ABDUL Kadir, late
on February 6. According to initial reports, a large crowd
of protestors gathered along the road to the palace and
attempted to block the motorcade of UMNO and BN leaders.
Protestors pelted some of the vehicles with stones before a

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police riot squad fired tear gas and dispersed the crowd. We
have no reports of further disturbances.
KEITH