OPPOSITION WINS ANOTHER BY-ELECTION, NOW 7 OF 8

UNCLAS KUALA LUMPUR 000734

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM MY
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION WINS ANOTHER BY-ELECTION, NOW 7 OF 8

REF: KL 588 - CLOSE BY-ELECTION


1. (U) Voters handed the opposition People's Alliance (PR)
coalition another victory on August 25 by electing an Islamic
Party of Malaysia (PAS) candidate into a recently vacated
State Assemblyman's seat in the state of Penang. Mohd Salleh
Man defeated his United Malays National Organization (UMNO)
opponent Rohaizat Othman by a count of 9,618 to 5,067. The
victory marks the seventh time in eight by-elections that the
PR has won the public vote since the March 2008 General
Elections.

Why the Opposition Won...Again
--------------


2. (SBU) Penang is one of four (out of 13 total) Malaysian
states controlled by the opposition PR. Although most of
PR's support comes from the state's high concentration of
ethnic Chinese, this particular constituency is an ethnic
Malay and PAS stronghold; it also overlaps the federal
constituency held by opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim. The
UMNO campaign machine, led by Deputy Prime Minister (DPM)
Muhyiddin Yassin attempted to win over undecided ethnic Malay
voters by increasing its racial rhetoric. UMNO also
attempted to lure back ethnic Chinese voters by highlighting
controversial PAS policies on pig farming in neighboring
Kedah and alcohol sales in Selangor. (Note: ethnic Indians,
who make up roughly 8% of Malaysia's population overall, make
up less than 1% of this constituency and were not considered
a factor in the outcome. End Note.) Conversely, the three
opposition parties (PAS; Anwar Ibrahim's multi-racial
People's Justice Party(PKR); and the mainly Chinese
Democratic Alliance Party (DAP)) pushed a positive theme of
unity while reminding voters that the UMNO candidate had been
disbarred from being an attorney last year for stealing money
from a client. Although slightly fewer voters turned out for
this by-election compared to the 2008 General Election, the
65%-35% margin of victory mirrors the election results from
18 months ago.

Reactions
--------------


3. (SBU) Compared with other by-election results, reactions
by top politicians have been relatively muted. Prime
Minister Najib Razak simply stated "we should look into the
factors which we can improve on. The party will strengthen
itself and I am confident we will recover." DPM Muhyiddin
noted "this is a different political scenario as it is not
only a PAS stronghold, but also a hardcore Anwar Ibrahim
area." More controversially, UMNO candidate Rohaizat said
his defeat was caused by "the failure of the Chinese
community to fulfill its vows of support." PR's election
director, PAS Vice President Mahfuz Omar, noted "the voters
have completely rejected the kind of racist politics played
by UMNO...the people want change and transparent governance,
something that UMNO cannot provide."


4. (SBU) Comment: While the PR was expected to win this
by-election given that it was in Anwar Ibrahim,s backyard,
the results point to some larger political trends, including:
despite much public squabbling between the opposition
parties, they appear able to unite for elections and are
cohesive during campaigns; the victory undercuts any momentum
that UMNO claims it gained from the close by-election loss in
Kelantan in July, in which it significantly narrowed the
margin of victory in a PAS stronghold (reftel); and
race-based rhetoric was largely rejected by Malay voters,
having no noticeable impact on the outcome.
KEITH