SURPRISINGLY CLOSE BY-ELECTION AND POPULARITY POLL

C O N F I D E N T I A L KUALA LUMPUR 000588

SIPDIS

FOR EAP/MTS AND INR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/15/2019
TAGS: PGOV KDEM MY
SUBJECT: SURPRISINGLY CLOSE BY-ELECTION AND POPULARITY POLL
A BOOST FOR NAJIB

Classified By: A/DCM Marrie Schaefer for reasons 1.4 b and d.

Summary and Comment
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1. (C) A near victory in a by-election in the heart of
opposition territory along with an apparent surge in Prime
Minister Najib Tun Razak's popularity have provided a boost
for the PM and his ruling Barisan National (BN) coalition.
Speculation that Najib might seek an early snap election
appears unfounded. The opposition coalition, suffering from
internal bickering, appears to be losing momentum, but there
is no indication Najib would change his reported plans to
wait until 2013 for national elections. End Summary and
Comment.


2. (SBU) According to a recently released Merdeka Centre
popularity poll, the PM's favorability rating surged from 42%
upon taking office April 2 to 65% on July 1. More
significantly, the PM's popularity rose to 74% among the
minority Indians, and 48% among the minority Chinese,
suggesting that the BN is regaining some of the influence
lost since the March 2008 General Elections. (Comment: The
Merdeka Centre considers itself a non-biased apolitical
institution and conducts polls in a scientific manner. It
enjoys a solid reputation as a credible and legitimate
polling organization. End comment.)


3. (SBU) In a contest it was expected to win handily, the
opposition Islamic Party of Malaysia (PAS) barely edged out
the United Malays National Organization (UMNO) in a July 14
by-election in the northeastern state of Kelantan. The
by-election was held to replace a 5-term PAS assemblyman who
died in June. The PAS candidate retained the seat for PAS by
securing 5,348 votes, just 65 votes more than his UMNO
challenger. Deputy Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin, who ran
the election campaign on behalf of the BN and UMNO, said he
was not disappointed with the results, as UMNO had clearly
gained ground compared to the 2008 General Elections, when
PAS defeated UMNO by 1,352 votes. (Comment: even if UMNO had
won this by-election, it would not have changed the balance
of power in the state of Kelantan and would not have had any
impact at the state or federal level. However, the
opposition has now won 6 of 7 by-elections held since the
March 2008 General Elections, and the BN devoted considerable
resources in this contest. End Comment.)


4. (SBU) In the wake of the Merdeka Centre poll, several
opposition politicians and non-government controlled media
outlets have challenged PM Najib to call snap elections and
earn a public mandate to hold the highest office in the
country. PM Najib coolly downplayed the calls, stating that
"the current mandate of the government would not expire
anytime soon." (Comment: We believe that despite the
increase in approval ratings, Najib will not call for General
Elections any time soon. According to the Constitution, Najib
must call for a General Election within 5 years of the last
General Election. End Comment.)
KEITH