ISLAMIST PARTY SENDS MIXED SIGNALS ON ITS FUTURE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KUALA LUMPUR 000471 SIPDIS FOR EAP/MTS AND INR E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/11/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KISL MY SUBJECT: ISLAMIST PARTY SENDS MIXED SIGNALS ON ITS FUTURE REF: KUALA LUMPUR 417 -- AMBASSADOR MEETS WITH PAS Classified By: Political Counselor Mark D. Clark, reason 1.4 (b and d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (SBU) The Islamic Party of Malaysia (PAS),the Islamist opposition party, held its annual convention and biannual elections June 5- 7. Elections featured an unprecedented contest between two factions, those supporting leadership by Islamic scholars (ulamas) and those favoring more pragmatic policies and greater roles for professionals (the Erdogan faction). The contest had ramifications for PAS's political future as the Ulama faction backs talks with fellow ethnic Malays in the ruling United Malays National Organization (UMNO) party, while the Erdogan faction opposes such talks in favor of strengthening ties with PAS's two opposition party partners. The election produced a mixed result, with the top two positions remaining in Ulama faction hands and the remaining positions split. The convention's opening ceremony featured a donation to Hamas. PAS president Hadi Awang used his keynote address to criticize UMNO as corrupt, but also defend his talks with the ruling party. Amidst traditional anti-West rhetoric, Hadi expressed hope that the Obama Administration would support freedom of expression and democracy in the Muslim world. In addition to heatedly debating the party's future direction, delegates endorsed resolutions critical of the Najib administration, supportive of economic set-asides for ethnic Malays and use of Malay language in public education, and condemning a liberal Islamic women's NGO. ¶2. (C) Comment: PAS's election sent an unclear signal regarding the party's future direction, role in the opposition People's Alliance (PR),and relationship to the ruling UMNO party. Prime Minister Najib and other UMNO leaders will continue to try to increase divisions in PAS by playing up prospects for PAS-UMNO talks, using UMNO dominance of the press and the theme of Muslim Malay unity in this effort. A PAS defection from PR would deal a grievous blow to the opposition, but seems unlikely now given apparently strong grassroots opposition to linking with UMNO. The convention also provided conflicting signs of whether a future PAS would remain a largely exclusionary party, focused solely on a conservative Muslim Malay agenda, or evolve into �A;a party more open to working on an inclusive agenda with other ethnic groups and Malaysia's 40 percent non-Muslim population. Compared with past iterations, PAS's 2009 convention notably featured more democratic attributes such as campaigning and open debates on fundamental issues, a healthy sign for the party. The party's appointment of senior officers will provide another indication of PAS's future. End Summary and Comment. Elections: Ulama versus Erdogan -------------- ¶3. (C) PAS held its annual convention and biannual party elections June 5-7 in the opposition-held state of Selangor. As the main event, PAS delegates elected the party's Deputy President, three Vice Presidents, and eighteen Central Working Committee (CWC) posts. Per PAS tradition, there were no challengers to the incumbent party President Hadi Awang, who won reelection without a vote. Breaking with a history of placid polling, the PAS elections featured intense behind-the-scenes campaigning between two loose, unofficial party groupings identified as the Ulama and Erdogan factions. The Ulama faction backs the role of traditional religious scholars who have claimed leadership of PAS since the 1989 party elections. Both party President Hadi and Deputy President Nasharudin represent this faction. The Ulama faction, and Hadi and Nasharudin personally, conducted sec-retive talks in 2008 with the ruling UMNO party, which upset PAS grassroots members and partners in the opposition coalition. ¶4. (C) The Erdogan faction, named after Turkey's Prime Minister, supports combining Islamic beliefs with pragmatic politics and promotes a greater leadership role for professionals alongside the ulamas. This faction, including Kelantan Deputy Chief Minister Husam Musa and popular former Perak Chief Minister Nizar, believes that the future of the party lies through expanded cooperation with non-Muslims, KUALA LUMP 00000471 002 OF 003 strengthening the opposition PR coalition, and refraining from negotiating with UMNO or the National Front (BN) coalition under most circumstances. Although a very conservative ulama, PAS's elderly spiritual leader Nik Aziz quietly supported the Erdogan faction in the elections, in part because of his vehement opposition to rapprochement with UMNO. ¶5. (SBU) The party election results, announced June 6, revealed a mixed outcome, with victories for both factions. The Ulama faction retained the top two slots as party President Hadi Awang gained reelected without challenge and Deputy President Nasharudin Mat Isa polled less than 50 percent of the votes but still defeated challengers Husam Musa and Mohammed Sabu, who split the Erdogan vote. Five candidates vied for the three Vice President positions, with the Erdogan faction taking two seats (Salahuddin Ayub, Mahfouz Omar) versus one from the Ulama group (Ibrahim Tuan Man). Fifty-four candidates contested 18 Central Working Committee posts, with the outcome a fairly even distribution between the competing factions. The prominent winners included: former Perak state Chief Minister Nizar Jamaluddin, Kedah state Chief Minister Azizan Abdul Razak, former senior party officials Kamaruddin Jaafar and Dr. Hatta Ramli, PAS Think tank Chief Dr. Dzulkefly Ahmad, and Dr. Lo' Lo' Ghazali (the only woman elected to the council). ¶6. (SBU) The PAS Youth and Women's Wings, which held their election earlier in the week, also saw changes to their leadership. The new PAS Youth Chief is Nasaruddin Tantawi, a conservative figure, while the PAS Women's Wing retained incumbent Nuridah Mohd Salleh as its leader. Controversy over UMNO Talks Continues -------------- ¶7. (SBU) In the immediate aftermath of the convention, Party President Hadi and Deputy President Nasharudin reiterated to the press that PAS would pursue unity talks with UMNO. Nasharudin explained that the talks were not aimed at sharing power or joining with UMNO, but only "a discussion on current issues for the benefit of the people and the nation." He added that PAS would provide an explanation to its coalition partners at the next opposition alliance Supreme Council meeting. PAS coalition partners PKR and DAP were quick to reject further talks with UMNO, and PAS spiritual leader Nik Aziz described this proposal as "ridiculous." PM Najib publicly thanked Hadi for the suggestion, noting that he is adopting "an open attitude" until he learns the true objective of the proposal. Najib added that this proposal, being a major decision, would have to be agreed to collectively by the top BN and UMNO leaders. UMNO's ethnic Chinese partner within BN, the Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA),came out against the talks, claiming these could lead to the establishment of an Islamic state. Opening Ceremony, Hamas Donation -------------- ¶8. (SBU) In advance of the party voting, PAS held an opening ceremony June 5 with the theme "Islam Leading Change." Polcouns, Poloff and POL Specialist witnessed the opening along with other Western and regional diplomats. Leaders from PAS's partners in the opposition alliance attended, including Peoples Justice Party (PKR) President Wan Azizah (the wife of opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim) and Democratic Action Party (DAP) senior advisor Lim Kit Siang. Other senior guests included former Minister Zaid Ibrahim, who received thunderous applause from delegates. Islamic party representatives from Palestine (see below),Indonesia, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka also joined the event. During the opening ceremony, PAS presented the Palestinian representative, Dr. Marwan Abu Ras, Chairman of the Palestinian Ulamas League, with a check for Hamas for 150,000 RM (USD 43,000) for relief activities. (Note: PAS donated 500,000 RM (USD141,000) to Hamas in February intended for relief efforts. The Palestinian representative also was given the unique honor to address the PAS Youth and the general convention. End Note.) "Islam Leading Change" -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Party President Abdul Hadi Awang opened the KUALA LUMP 00000471 003 OF 003 convention with a 90-minute keynote address entitled, "Islam Leading Change." Hadi heavily criticized the ruling United Malays National Organization (UMNO - PAS's historical rival for ethnic Malays votes) as materialistic and corrupt, resulting in an urgent need for national change that should come from Islam. Despite attacking UMNO, Hadi also defended his earlier, unsanctioned talks with UMNO leaders, claiming that these were intended "to protect Malay society, defend Islam, and lead the 'Ummah' in the path of Islam." Within the PR opposition alliance, Hadi stressed the importance of strengthening working relationships between the three parties to ensure greater success in the next national elections. Hadi strongly supported a larger leadership role for PAS within the alliance, stating "PAS is ready to offer itself to lead change, and bear the responsibility of national leadership in a mixed society such as Malaysia's" (a sentiment he expressed in the 2008 convention). ¶10. (C) Hadi argued that the world should embrace the Islamic economic model given that both Communism and "liberal capitalism" had failed, and suggested adoption of the "Islamic gold dinar" as the world commercial currency. On broader Muslim world issues, Hadi decried the situations in Palestine, Afghanistan, Chechnya, Iraq and Pakistan, and repeatedly referred to Israel as an "illegal" entity supported by major world powers. The PAS President welcomed the advent of the new U.S. Administration that he hoped would "provide the green light towards greater freedom of expression and democratization in the Muslim world." Hadi stressed, however, that the Obama Administration should discard any form of prejudice against Islam and recognize it as a democratic force. (Comment: The opening speech and other remarks at the convention were less stridently critical of the U.S. than in recent years. Positive reference to the U.S. supporting human rights and democracy represents something new in PAS rhetoric. End Comment.) Debates at the Convention -------------- ¶11. (C) During the debates at the convention, the majority of delegates gave enthusiastic support to the speakers who objected to any talks with UMNO. The PAS Women's wing stated that the party should categorically reject the idea of a unity government or cooperating with UMNO, and instead should focus on strengthening the opposition coalition. Others took a more conservative view: PAS Youth Chief Nasaruddin Tantawi commented that their dislike for UMNO "should not stifle efforts to preach Islam among UMNO members." The PAS convention debated and passed three major resolutions: to preserve the interest of ethnic Malay/indigenous (Bumiputra) entrepreneurs; to restore judicial integrity; and to teach math and science in Malay rather than English. Twelve other resolutions were passed but without debate, including a demand for Prime Minister Najib to clear his name in the Altantuya murder case; and a call for the National Fatwa Council to probe the liberal Islamic NGO "Sisters in Islam" and declare them "haram" (illegal). The debates were also notable because a non-Muslim was allowed to speak for the first time in PAS party convention history. RAPSON