BY-ELECTION RESULTS -- HONEYMOON DAMPENER FOR NAJIB

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KUALA LUMPUR 000259 SIPDIS FOR EAP/MTS AND INR E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/08/2019 TAGS: PGOV KDEM MY SUBJECT: BY-ELECTION RESULTS -- HONEYMOON DAMPENER FOR NAJIB REF: A. KUALA LUMPUR 253 -- NAJIB BECOMES PRIME MINISTER ¶B. KUALA LUMPUR 229 -- NAJIB LIMITING DEMOCRACY? ¶C. KUALA LUMPUR 194 -- ANWAR IN DOLDRUMS ¶D. KUALA LUMPUR 78 -- NAJIB LEADS TAKEOVER OF PERAK Classified By: Political Counselor Mark D. Clark for reasons 1.4 b and d. Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) The opposition coalition Pakatan Rakyat (PR) won two out of three by-elections held on April 7, handing a set back to the new administration of Prime Minister Najib Razak and his ruling National Front (BN) coalition. The key contest saw recently ousted Perak Chief Minister Mohammad Nizar of the Islamic Party of Malaysia (PAS) soundly defeat his BN opponent, which is being portrayed by the opposition as an unofficial referendum on the BN's aggressive takeover of Perak (ref D). The late stages of the campaign also saw the return of former PM Mahathir Mohammad to the ruling United Malays National Organization (UMNO) party, which drew public attention but fewer votes than BN hoped for. The BN's only consolation lay with a predictable victory in remote Sarawak for a state assemblyman's seat. BN spun the outcome in the government-dominated media as maintaining the "status quo" (no seats changed hands),while opposition leaders played up the results as a vote of no-confidence in Najib. "Irrespective of the new PM," opposition leader Anwar proclaimed, "Malaysians still want change." ¶2. (C) Comment: The results of the April 7 by-elections have diminished the honeymoon newly-installed PM Najib may have hoped for. BN now has lost four straight by-elections on the Peninsula in communities of varying ethnic composition. The losses in Perak and Kedah do not alter the balance of power, but should send signals to BN and UMNO that they have not regained ground since their setback in the March 2008 elections. In that sense, UMNO's scripted response of "status quo" is correct -- the ruling party has not regained popular backing among Malays, and perhaps support among Chinese and Indians has eroded further. Only Sarawak, the only state in which UMNO has no official party presence, delivered and handily for BN, giving the opposition a sharp reminder of the difficulties they face against the state's entrenched political machine. With the by-election results, Najib is now even less likely to seek a fresh mandate through snap elections in Perak or across the country as some had been speculating. The April 7 outcome, however, could give greater impetus to calls for significant reforms and pressure from component parties for UMNO to change the inter-ethnic dynamic within the ruling coalition. End Summary and Comment. Setting the Stage for a Showdown -------------- ¶3. (SBU) The Election Commission of Malaysia (EC) decided to hold three by-elections simultaneously on April 7 after the deaths of a Member of Parliament (MP) and a state assemblyman, and the resignation of a second state assemblyman. The opposition initially cried foul over the timing of the three by-elections because they came immediately after two events that would presumably give the BN momentum: the UMNO party elections in late March, and the transfer of power to PM Najib on April 3. The battle for the MP seat in Perak quickly became the marquee election, as recently ousted Perak Chief Minister Mohammad Nizar became the PR's candidate, turning the race into a de facto referendum on the BN's takeover of the state in February. The other two contests were not insignificant: the contested constituency in Kedah is home to one of Malaysia's highest concentration of ethnic Indians, providing a litmus test of Indian views; and the constituency in Sarawak is made up mostly of indigenous peoples, a demographic traditionally dominated by the BN but which the PR has pledged to make in-roads. The Opposition Ran a Better Campaign, Despite Mahathir -------------- -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Poloff and Pol staff visited the contested constituencies in Perak and Kedah in the run-up to the election and found that the PR's campaign machinery was much more organized, and their supporters far more motivated than those of BN. Whereas the opposition ran carefully coordinated events with big name speakers, including opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim, to the delight of KUALA LUMP 00000259 002 OF 003 overflowing crowds, the BN's campaign efforts we saw were mostly events with low-level speakers who showed up late or not at all, while the supporters appeared more interested in the free food than in listening to the speakers. Poloffs also observed that those attending the PR events were extremely diverse in race and ethnicity, in stark contrast to the BN supporters, who were mostly of one ethnic group (Malays in Perak and Indians in Kedah, reflecting the respective ethnicities of the candidates). (Comment: these campaign observations are very similar to what we have seen in the 2008 general election and by-elections since. End Comment.) ¶5. (SBU) The day after PM Najib took over as Prime Minister, Najib personally welcomed back into UMNO former PM Mahathir Mohammad, who had left the party in 2008 as a means to pressure Abdullah to step down. Mahathir wasted no time campaigning for UMNO's candidate in Perak, addressing a rally of several thousand the day before the by-elections. Poloffs observed, however, that older ethnic Malays predominated, with virtually no younger people or non-Malays in attendance, and that almost all of the people came from out of district. Mahathir later spoke at a BN rally in Kedah, which is his home state. Although clearly a draw among ethnic Malays, Mahathir's return did not appear to have any tangible impact on the outcome of the elections. The Opposition Wins Two out of Three Contests Convincingly -------------- -------------- ¶6. (SBU) The opposition handily won both contests on Peninsular Malaysia, raising their number of wins to four out of four in by-election contests in West Malaysia since the March 2008 general elections. In Perak, former Chief Minister Nizar beat his UMNO opponent with approximately 22,000 votes to 19,000, a margin of victory two times greater than his late predecessor achieved last year, a clear sign that Nizar remained popular and that many voters were unhappy with the BN's hostile takeover of the state government. Nizar received a majority of the ethnic-Malay votes despite BN attempts among Malays to paint the opposition as traitors to the Malay cause. Importantly, Nizar, from the conservative Islamist party PAS, attracted up to 80% of the votes from the minority Chinese and Indian constituents. In Kedah, the opposition candidate from the People's Justice Party decisively defeated his opponent from the BN-backed Malaysian Indian Congress. In both cases, the opposition increased their margins of victory (though in Kedah only slightly),prompting opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim to comment that the voters "are even stronger in their support" for change. Sarawak: the Opposition Fails to Make Headway -------------- ¶7. (SBU) The BN easily won the Batang Ai by-election in Sarawak by a margin of nearly 3 to 1, a substantial increase over the March 2008 general election. This constituency, in the rural jungles of Sarawak, is so remote that ballot boxes had to be flown into a central location by helicopter. As part of BN's campaign efforts, outgoing Home Minister Syed Hamid Albar promised birth certificates to the indigenous Iban, who make up 90% of the voters, to demonstrate the BN's support to them. One well-informed press contact told Poloff over the phone that he witnessed BN leaders giving each family 1000 Malaysian Ringgit ($280 USD) to vote for the BN, while promising another 1000 Ringgit if the BN won. (Note: The average monthly income in this constituency is $200 USD/month. End Note.) Lacking much logistical support, the opposition had a difficult time moving around the constituency, whereas the BN campaigners had state government helicopters at their disposal. The PR, realizing that their chances of winning were slim, provided only token support for their candidate, focusing most of their resources and stumpers in Perak and Kedah. On election day, the PR complained of an irregular move by the EC to transport ballots from several remote polling stations to a centralized location without escorts, raising concerns that those ballots would be tampered with. BN Downplays the Election Results; Opposition Jubilant -------------- -------------- ¶8. (SBU) The new government moved quickly to control the damage after the two by-election losses. The government dominated New Straits Times and the Star, Malaysia's two most widely circulated dailies, opened with the headline "Status KUALA LUMP 00000259 003 OF 003 Quo," a phrase repeated in the Utusan, an UMNO-owned paper. With regard to PM Najib, new DPM Muhyiddin Yassin, who also served as the BN's director for the by-elections, opined "this is not a referendum on the leadership. Maybe the feel good factor of the leadership of Najib has yet to sink in on the voters." New UMNO Vice President Hishamuddin Tun Hussein noted that Najib just became Prime Minister and that "he has not even announced his cabinet line-up yet. Give us some time." (Note: Just prior to Najib becoming PM, a poll by the Merdeka Centre, an influential and independent Malaysian pollster, indicated that Najib held a 41% public approval rating, which was 6% lower than the often-criticized Abdullah Badawi whom he replaced. End Note.) ¶9. (C) Leaders of the BN component parties viewed the results with concern, but also as an opportunity to push for change in the ruling coalition and UMNO. One senior Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA) party member confided to POL staff that the party is "very concerned" with the results, describing the swing of Chinese support "for a PAS candidate" as "alarming." The contact added that the party has to go back to the drawing board to come up with strategies to regain Chinese support for BN. MCA President Ong Tee Keat said publicly, "we thank the voters for again telling us to change", while Gerakan president Koh Tsu Koon said this was "a blessing in disguise for BN to work harder to win back the people's support." (Comment: Both of these mantras have been echoed by the component parties, who largely represent Malaysia's ethnic minorities within BN, since the March 2008 general elections. The Kedah and Perak election results provide an indication that BN may be losing more ethnic minority support. End Comment.) ¶10. (SBU) Opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim was quick to rebut the Najib administration's reactions. "Irrespective of the new PM," said Anwar, "Malaysians still want change." Nizar called the victory "a signal to dissolve the Perak legislative assembly and let the people have their right to vote." Democratic Alliance Party (DAP) spokesman Tony Pua also added "it is high time, as a new prime minister, to do the right thing for democracy in Malaysia by ensuring that the people of Perak get a government they have themselves elected." KEITH