NAJIB ON TRACK TO BECOME PM AS POLITICAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KUALA LUMPUR 000160

SIPDIS

FOR EAP/MTS AND INR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/04/2019
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM MY
SUBJECT: NAJIB ON TRACK TO BECOME PM AS POLITICAL
TURBULENCE CONTINUES

REF: A. KL 78 -- NAJIB LEADS TAKEOVER OF PERAK

B. 08 KL 1116 -- ANTI-CORRUPTION REFORMS

C. 08 KL 929 -- RARE STATEMENT BY COUNCIL OF RULERS

Classified By: Political Counselor Mark D. Clark for reasons 1.4 b and
d.

Summary and Comment
--------------


1. (C) Malaysia's Deputy Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak
appears on track to take over as Prime Minister by early
April against a backdrop of continued political turbulence.
With ruling UMNO party elections less than four weeks away,
both the King and outgoing PM Abdullah himself publicly
reconfirmed Abdullah's exit. While Najib remains set to
become UMNO and Malaysia's next leader, the March 24-28 party
elections feature heated contests for other senior slots. On
February 16 the King opened a raucous Parliamentary session
featuring debate over the Perak state political crisis, the
politicization of anti-corruption efforts and the circulation
of nude photos of an assemblywomen, as well as an UMNO Youth
confrontation with senior opposition leader Karpal Singh.
The opposition's refusal to concede loss of the Perak state
government following an UMNO-led takeover has produced
political chaos in the state and recriminations over the
opposition's respect for the Sultan. The opposition, backed
by important civil society voices, persists in seeking fresh
elections in Perak. Malaysia's political tempest will
continue with three by-elections scheduled to take place on
April 7.


2. (C) Comment: One year after UMNO and its ruling National
Front (BN) coalition suffered an unprecedented electoral
setback, Malaysia's political scene remains
uncharacteristically volatile. UMNO's elections and Najib's
ascension to power arguably will represent closure of the
post-2008 election phase, but it will not mean a quick return
to staid politics. The Perak situation demonstrates that
opposition leaders, still standing together in a shaky
alliance, remain willing to challenge UMNO and its central
government apparatus, even when there is little immediate
prospect of success. The three April 7 by-elections will
draw very significant attention from BN and the opposition as
both sides seek political momentum at the beginning of
Najib's administration. Continued political volatility,
coupled with the change in administration, provides a serious
distraction from pressing policy issues, not the least of
which is the need for strong measures to deal with the
deteriorating economic situation. End Summary and Comment.

Najib Still On Track
--------------


3. (C) The critical party elections and general assembly of
the United Malays National Organization (UMNO),Malaysia's
ruling party, are less than four weeks away and DPM Najib
remains on track to replace Abdullah Badawi as both UMNO
president and Prime Minister. While Kuala Lumpur's rumor
mill churns out hints that Abdullah will stay on as Prime
Minister even after he relinquishes the UMNO presidency
(constitutionally possible, but against all precedent and
politically unrealistic),credible Embassy contacts state
that a weary Abdullah does not intend to try to abrogate his
handover deal with Najib. Further cementing Najib's
takeover, the King publicly bid farewell to Abdullah during
his February 16 address to Parliament and Abdullah, speaking
from the ASEAN summit on March 2, told reporters he intended
to step down by the end of March.

UMNO Elections Loom
--------------


4. (C) Though Najib's uncontested election as UMNO president
does not appear in doubt, the UMNO poll features heated
contests for other key posts, including that of Deputy
President, three Vice Presidents, Supreme Council seats, and
the head of the influential UMNO Youth wing. PM Abdullah
reportedly backs Malacca Chief Minister Ali Rastam to defeat
Trade/Industry Minister Muhyiddin Yassin for Deputy President
and clearly favors his son-in-law Khairy Jamaluddin for Youth
chief, who nevertheless is a dark horse. Najib, however,
appears to have refrained from throwing his clear support
behind individual candidates, at least at this point. The

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impending UMNO elections, which will strongly influence
Najib's future cabinet reshuffle, continues to distract
senior government leaders and color other political
developments.

King Opens Parliament and Warns Against Racial Hatred
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5. (SBU) Parliament reconvened on February 16 for a one-month
sitting that is likely to favor political drama over
law-making. Malaysian King Mizan Zainal Abidin's opening
speech (in years past drafted by the government) praised the
government's reactions to the worldwide recession and recent
crisis in Gaza, in addition to bidding farewell to PM
Abdullah. The King also emphasized the supremacy of the
Constitution and the need for racial harmony and religious
tolerance, warning those that incite hatred that they were
going against his wishes and the Constitution, echoing
sentiments voiced by the Sultans as a group in October 2008
(ref C). Ambassador Keith and other envoys attended the
King's speech.


6. (SBU) The King's speech kicked off four days of open
debate within Parliament and heated exchanges between
National Front (BN) and opposition People's Alliance (PR)
members. The political chaos in Perak state (ref A)
dominated the sessions attended by Poloffs, with BN MPs
posturing as defenders of the monarchy, while the opposition
MPs positioned themselves as champions of the people, calling
for new elections in the state. Parliamentary debates and
the media also focused on the newly launched Malaysian
Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC, ref B) and opposition
charges of the MACC's politicization reflected in its
targeting of PR Selangor Chief Minister Khalid Ibrahim. The
circulation of illicit photos taken of Selangor PR State
Assemblywoman Elizabeth Wong led conservative factions within
BN and PR's Islamist party PAS to demand her resignation for
her alleged immoral behavior, opening up fierce discussions
over the right to privacy. Wong has offered up her
resignation, but it has yet to be accepted.


7. (SBU) The Parliament grounds were the scene of a widely
publicized confrontation on February 26 between veteran
Democratic Alliance Party (DAP) Chairman and MP Karpal Singh,
who is wheelchair-bound, and a threatening UMNO Youth
delegation. The UMNO Youth reps, who briefly blocked
Karpal's entry into the Parliament building and scuffled with
his aides, were angered over the DAP leader's accusation that
UMNO Youth were responsible for a recent death threat
stemming from Karpal's possible suit against the Perak
Sultan. Opposition MPs complained that no security guards or
police intervened to assist Karpal.


8. (SBU) Beyond the debates and antics, this Parliamentary
session also has an abbreviated lawmaking agenda. Beginning
March 6, the lower House is scheduled to take up a variety of
bills to include that on witness protection. A bill for
strengthened oversight of law enforcement agencies, which PM
Abdullah previously discussed as a parting reform measure, is
not yet on the Parliament's agenda.

Political Chaos in Perak
--------------


9. (C) The PR's refusal to concede loss of the Perak state
government following an UMNO-led takeover, despite the
Sultan's confirmation of a new BN government, has produced a
situation of political chaos in the state. On February 18,

V. Sivakumar, Speaker of the Perak State Assembly and PR
member, suspended the new UMNO CM Zambry Abdul Kadir and his
six Executive Councilors (Excos) from the State Legislative
Assembly, saying their appointment was unconstitutional. PM
Abdullah issued a harsh and immediate rebuke warning
Sivakumar that his action was a direct challenge to the
Sultan's authority. On February 25, PAS Deputy President
Nasharuddin Mat Isa told us that PR was quietly lobbying the
Sultan to accede to the request to convene a special session
of the State Assembly to resolve the political crisis.
Lacking a response from the Sultan, Sivakumar raised the ante
by using his power as Speaker to schedule an emergency state
assembly session on March 3. The announcement drew another
round of condemnation from UMNO leaders, including PM
Abdullah and DPM Najib. UMNO leaders claimed only the Sultan
has the right to convene a state assembly session, although

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the Bar Council and several prominent lawyers highlighted
that under the Perak state assembly standing orders the
Speaker has inherent powers to convene the assembly. UMNO CM
Zambry declared the March 3 emergency meeting of the state
assembly a "threat to national security," a term that implies
the federal government could invoke emergency measures, such
as arrests under the Internal Security Act.


10. (SBU) A day prior to the meeting, the Perak State
Secretary, a civil servant, ordered the state assembly gates
locked to prevent Sivakumar and other PR assemblymen from
holding the emergency session. Denied entry, Speaker
Sivakumar convened the emergency session under a tree 200
meters from the state assembly building. All 27 PR
assemblymen attended the meeting, unanimously and predictably
passing three resolutions: a motion of confidence on PR CM
Nizar as the legal Perak CM; agreement to seek Royal consent
for dissolution of the state assembly; and the endorsement of
the suspension of UMNO CM Zambry Abdul Kadir and his Excos.
Nizar told reporters he would seek an audience with Perak's
Sultan to convey the assembly,s resolutions. UMNO lawyers
are asking the courts to invalidate any decisions made during
the emergency sitting, which UMNO leaders called an illegal
assembly. Bar Council President Ambiga, reacting to the ad
hoc assembly, commented "the situation is untenable and cries
out for the one thing that will resolve it conclusively:
fresh elections...Let the people decide."


11. (C) During a February 23 meeting, UMNO MP Nur Jazlan told
visiting EAP DAS Scot Marciel that UMNO's actions in Perak
represented a "pure power play" and that the party intended
to use protecting the monarchy as a key issue during the
up-coming by-elections. Nur Jazlan also admitted that two of
the PR assemblymen defected to BN because they were desperate
to evade pending corruption charges. Attending opposition
MPs disagreed on the impact the "monarchy issue" will have on
the elections, but one noted apprehensions over Malay
sensitivities and the concern that the situation could spark
a race riot.

Upcoming By-Elections: An Opportunity for Both Sides
-------------- --------------


12. (SBU) Three impending by-elections, including one in
Perak, will add to Malaysia's current political turbulence.
The Election Commission announced on February 13 that the
by-elections for a vacant MP seat in Perak and a vacant State
Assemblyman seat in Kedah will both take place on April 7.
The vacant MP seat in Perak is due to the death of its
incumbent, while the vacant State Assemblyman seat in Kedah
is the result of the former holder's resignation under a
cloud of corruption. The EC set the official nomination date
(for the registration of candidates) for March 29, after
which the candidates are allowed to campaign until April 6.
On February 24, a BN State Assemblyman from Sarawak died in
his sleep. The EC on March 4 confirmed that this vacant seat
also will be contested on April 7. As of March 4, no
candidates for any of the contests have been announced. The
three by-elections will not result in any change in state or
national Parliament control, but are being touted as
referendums on BN and PR popular support. PR candidates have
won the two by-elections held since the March 2008 general
elections.

Anwar Set to Give One-Year Anniversary Address
-------------- -


13. (SBU) Opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim will deliver a
national address on "People's Power" on the one-year
anniversary of the March 8, 2008, national elections that saw
significant opposition gains and gave Anwar's Peoples Justice
Party (PKR) the second largest representation in Parliament.
Anwar will deliver the speech in large venue owned by the
PR-led state government in Selangor. Emboffs will attend.
RAPSON