ASSAM: ULFA AND NDFB MAIN SUSPECTS IN OCTOBER 30 TERRORIST

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KOLKATA 000056 SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/INS NSC FOR GOEL E.O. 12958: DECL: 3/5/2019 TAGS: PTER PGOV PREL IN BG SUBJECT: ASSAM: ULFA AND NDFB MAIN SUSPECTS IN OCTOBER 30 TERRORIST ATTACKS REF: KOLKATA 22 KOLKATA 00000056 001.2 OF 002 CLASSIFIED BY: Beth Payne, Consul General, , . REASON: 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Assam's Chief Minister confirmed that the separatist groups United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) and National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB) are the main suspects in the October 30, 2008 terrorist attacks in Guwahati (Reftel). Assam officials, who believe that the attacks were executed by groups operating in the state, suspect that elements residing in Bangladesh were also involved. The actual perpetrators of the attack remain at large. The October 30 terrorist attacks may represent a shift in tactics by insurgent groups, who appear to be changing their targets from government or security institutions and personnel to civilians. Foreigners have not been targeted, wounded, or killed in any of the terrorist attacks in Assam. End summary. ¶2. (C) On January 29, Congen met with Assam Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi, the senior most elected official in the northeastern Indian state, and discussed the investigation into the October 30, 2008 terrorist attacks and the general law and order situation in the state. According to Gogoi, evidence collected by the state of Assam and handed over to the Central Bureau of Investigation suggests the involvement of ULFA and NDFB in the attacks. Gogoi assured ConGen that foreigners have not been specifically targeted in any of the terrorist attacks in Assam. The Bangladesh Connection ¶3. (C) According to Gogoi, Indian intelligence inputs (not shared with post) also indicate that the perpetrators of the attacks may have been in touch with elements residing in Bangladesh. Gogoi noted that several senior leaders of separatist and insurgent groups operating in Assam reside in Bangladesh. (The GOI has for the last couple of years sought the extradition of Anup Chetia, an ULFA leader who filed for political asylum after completing his prison sentence in Bangladesh.) Assam Home Secretary R.K. Bora, a senior bureaucrat responsible for law and order in the state, told ConGen that leaders of the insurgent groups in Assam, operating from Bangladesh may have been cultivated by Bangladeshi or Pakistani intelligence services to conduct terrorist attacks in India to destabilize the country. Law and Order in the State ¶4. (C) The NDFB and two of the three militant companies of the ULFA are currently observing a ceasefire with the GOI. According to Assam Chief Secretary P.C. Sharma, the senior civil servant in the state government, the Indian Army and state security personnel have focused their counter-insurgency operations in Lower Assam. He stated that there is no evidence of Harkat ul Jehadi Islami (HUJI) and Lashkar e Toiba (LeT) direct involvement in any terrorist activity in the state, although they are monitoring the situation. He also ruled out the presence of any Maoist groups (left-leaning militant extremists) in the state. He is concerned that the October 30 attacks may represent a paradigm shift in the patterns of violence as insurgent and separatist groups change their focus from protected government or security forces institution and personnel to more vulnerable civilian targets. He speculated that attacks on the civilian population were more effective in "terrorizing the population" making it easier for the separatist groups to extort money to fund their insurgent activities. Comment ¶5. (C) While it appears that ULFA and NDFB were behind the October 30 terrorist attacks, it is still unclear whether they were assisted by elements operating out of Bangladesh. Although many officials and journalists repeat the assumption that foreign organizations were behind the attacks, no one offered ConGen concrete evidence of this during her visit to Assam. If insurgent groups have, in fact, shifted their targets to include more terrorist attacks against the civilian population, maintaining law and order in the state will be challenge for the government and could impact the stability of the entire Northeast since Assam, which is the second largest state in northeast India and the most strategic, is the economic center of the Northeast and an important transit link with "mainland" India. The post-Mumbai central government interest in counterterrorism and improved law and order capabilities, KOLKATA 00000056 002.2 OF 002 combined with improved bilateral ties and cooperation with Bangladesh, may assist the state government in addressing the challenges posed by insurgent groups. PAYNE