JHARKHAND STATE ELECTIONS: NO OUTRIGHT WINNER, CONGRESS' UPA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KOLKATA 000336

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/INSB (TITUS)

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PTER ASEC CASC IN
SUBJECT: JHARKHAND STATE ELECTIONS: NO OUTRIGHT WINNER, CONGRESS' UPA
LARGEST CAUCUS

REF: KOLKATA 328


1. (SBU) Summary: On December 23 the eastern Indian state of
Jharkhand announced the results for its recent state assembly
elections. No single party or pre-poll alliance won an outright
majority, although the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance
(UPA) is the largest caucus. A majority of voters ignored the
Maoist/Naxal call for an election boycott and central and state
police ensured that the elections went off without any major
disruption. Over the next few weeks, Congress and its regional
party ally, Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (JVM) will have to negotiate
with other parties, including the unexpected star performer, the
regional party Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM),to form a
government with majority support in the state assembly. The
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) continued the losing streak that
began early this year in the national parliamentary elections.
While the elections may allow Jharkhand to form a government
after more than one year without an elected one, the fractured
polity and lack of any clear winner indicate that political
instability and all of its associated problems (weak
administration, poor security and corruption) will continue to
plague the state.




2. (U) Results from the 2009 Jharkhand state assembly elections
are listed below. In order to form a government a party or
coalition needs the support of at least 41 of the 81 members.



United Progressive Alliance

Congress - 14

Jharkhand Vikas Morcha - 11



National Democratic Alliance

Bharatiya Janata Party - 18

Janata Dal United - 2



Unaffiliated

Jharkhand Mukti Morcha - 18

Rashtriya Janata Dal - 5

Others - 13




3. (U) Voter turnout (58 percent) was higher than in the
April/May national parliamentary elections (55 percent) as
voters ignored the Maoist/Naxal call for an election boycott.
Maoists killed 12 police in isolated attacks during the
five-phase election, but a large presence of state and central
police ensured that the elections took place without any major
incidents or disruptions.



Comment: Shibu Soren's JMM Likely to Emerge as Kingmaker




4. (SBU) While Congress and its ally, the Jharkhand-based
regional party JVM, may be the largest political grouping in the
new state assembly, the "winner" is Shibu Soren and his JMM.
Ditched by Congress before the national parliamentary elections
in April/May, his strong performance in the state assembly
elections makes him indispensible to any coalition formation in
the state. However, the personal rivalry between JMM's tribal
leader Shibu Soren and JVM's tribal leader Babulal Marandi, both
of whom are former and aspiring future Chief Ministers, makes
squaring Jharkhand's "political" circle very difficult. The
clear "loser" of this election was the BJP, whose state assembly
seat total dropped from 30 to 18. Only seven months ago the BJP
had won a majority of Jharkhand's parliamentary seats (eight of
14). This is yet another setback for the national party that
cannot seem to break its rudderless descent. While the
elections may allow Jharkhand to form a government after more

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than one year without an elected one, the fractured polity and
lack of any outright winner indicate that political instability
and all of its associated problems (weak administration, poor
security and corruption) will continue to plague the state.
PAYNE