JHARKHAND STATE ELECTIONS EXPECTED TO YIELD YET ANOTHER

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KOLKATA 000328 SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/INSB (TITUS) E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PTER ASEC CASC IN SUBJECT: JHARKHAND STATE ELECTIONS EXPECTED TO YIELD YET ANOTHER UNSTABLE GOVERNMENT REF: A. KOLKATA 97 ¶B. KOLKATA 105 ¶C. KOLKATA 307 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Five-phase state assembly elections began in the eastern Indian state of Jharkhand on November 25 and will conclude on December 18. Results will be announced on December ¶23. Jharkhand has been without an elected government since January as no party had been able to form a government with a majority of support in the state assembly. The mineral rich tribal state suffers from chronic political instability, weak administration, corruption, and Naxal/Maoist violence. Naxal/Maoist attacks have occurred in the run-up to the election, and are expected to continue throughout, but they are not expected to disrupt the elections. No single party or alliance is expected to win an outright majority. Opinion is split, but a slim majority expects Congress to form a government with outside independent support. Both of the large national parties, Congress and the BJP, would like to control the state politically as it would provide them with a foothold in eastern India, which is otherwise dominated by regional parties. The lack of a stable elected government, corruption, weak administration and internal security challenges are discouraging for future U.S. public or private sector investment. POLOFF and PolFSN traveled to Ranchi from November 22-25 and spoke with a range of politicians, journalists, business leaders and think tanks to prepare this report. Political Instability, Culture of Corruption and Weak Administration ¶2. (SBU) Since Jharkhand was carved out of the neighboring state of Bihar in 2000, the state has been wracked by political instability (Reftel B). In nine years there have been six governments and four chief ministers. Since January 2009, the state has been without an elected government: the assembly was suspended as no party could form a government with a majority of members in support and the central government's representative, the governor, ruled the state with his senior advisors. Jharkhand is arguably one of the most corrupt states in all of Eastern India. On November 30, the police arrested former Chief Minister Madhu Koda (then Independent) for his alleged involvement in an estimated USD 870 million corruption scheme. What surprised people was not the fact that Koda was corrupt, but rather the scale of corruption. Governance in the state is further hindered by a weak administration, a result of the politicization of the civil service and short tenures in office. Political instability and constant turnover in elected government has adversely impacted the civil service. Maoist Presence in 18 of the 24 Districts ¶3. (SBU) As if political instability, corrupt ministers and weak officials were not enough, Jharkhand is also affected by Maoist/Naxal violence. Extremists have a presence in 18 of the 24 districts. From January 2003 to October 2009, Maoists killed 339 policemen in the state. Maoists have targeted government officials, security forces and a passenger train in the run up to the election (Reftel C) and these isolated attacks are expected to continue throughout the remainder of the election cycle. A Congress party official said that electoral candidates often cut deals with Maoists in their respective constituencies to influence voters. They are not expected to disrupt actual polling stations, which are well protected by central and state police. Journalists opine that the recent increase in Maoist activity may be due to the central government's publicly stated intention to launch a joint central/state police anti-Maoist operation upon the conclusion of the elections and the formation of a government. Political Parties: National, Regional and Independents ¶4. (SBU) The two largest national parties, Congress and the BJP, are active in the state, but neither is expected to be able to form a government on its own. Both have partnered with regional KOLKATA 00000328 002 OF 003 parties for this election. Congress partnered with former Chief Minister Babulal Marandi's Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (JVM),whose leader is regarded as the most efficient and least corrupt of all of Jharkhand's former Chief Ministers. The tribal leader and current parliamentarian, took a strong stand against the Maoists while in government; his son was allegedly killed by Maoists. BJP partnered with Nitish Kumar's regional party Janata Dal United (JDU) mirroring its electoral combination in the neighboring state of Bihar. They are hoping to bank on their strong performance in Jharkhand in the April/May national parliament elections and the positive reputation of the current JDU-BJP government in Bihar. Poor performance in the spring national elections by Lalu Yadav Prasad's regional party, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD),and Shibu Soren's Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM),have dimmed their electoral prospects in the current state assembly elections. (For more on the Bihar regional parties see Reftel A). On the other hand, Lalu Prasad's personal campaigning in Ranchi, Jamshedpur and some of the districts bordering Bihar may pay off. Independent candidates have also played a role in government formation in the past and may continue to do so by extending support to a coalition in order for it to yield a majority, albeit unstable one. Issues: Stable Government, Development, Security ¶5. (SBU) In Jharkhand, politics is more personality-based than issue-based. However, given the history of political instability and the lack of an elected government for the last year, it is not surprising that "a stable government" is the number one issue cited in elections. Development and security are cited as secondary concerns. While corruption is a problem in the state, none of the parties have been able to transform it into an electoral issue, perhaps because corruption cuts equally across all parties. Congress' previous support of Koda's government is not expected to have a negative impact. Before his arrest Koda had even launched a party, the Jharkhand Navnirman Morcha, and fielded his wife, to contest the elections. No Party or Alliance Expected to Win Majority ¶6. (SBU) Given the fractured polity, no single party or alliance is expected to win an outright majority. While BJP emerged as the largest party in the 2005 state assembly election (36 of 81 seats versus Congress' 26) and the 2009 parliamentary election (8 of 14 seats versus Congress' 1),the party's poor national performance this spring has taken some of the steam out of its efforts in the state. On the other hand, Congress' prospects have improved since its strong performance and renewed mandate in the national elections. It replaced as alliance partner the fading tribal star, Shibu Soren (JMM),with tribal stalwart Babulal Marandi (JVM). Furthermore, the party has access to a huge campaign war chest to bring star campaigners, such as Rahul Gandhi, to the state. While opinion is split, a slim majority expects Congress to emerge as the largest constituent party and form the government with outside independent support. One analyst opined that Congress would form the state government either through financial support for independents or by threatening to launch corruption cases through the centrally controlled anti-corruption organization. Comment ¶7. (SBU) Both of the large national parties, Congress and the BJP, would like to control the state politically as it would provide them with a foothold in eastern India, which is otherwise dominated by regional parties. However, regardless of who triumphs in these state elections, most important for Jharkhand is the formation of a stable government that can begin addressing the formidable development and security challenges in the state. Such a government, however, does not appear to be in the cards. The lack of a stable elected government, corruption, weak administration and internal security challenges are KOLKATA 00000328 003 OF 003 discouraging for future U.S. public or private sector investment. Unfortunately, there is a nexus of individuals from politics, government, business and the Maoists that have a vested interest in a continuation of the status quo so that they can prosper a la former Chief Minister Koda at the expense of the people. PAYNE