OPPOSITION CONTINUES WINNING STREAK IN WEST BENGAL

UNCLAS KOLKATA 000317 SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/INSB (TITUS) E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL IN SUBJECT: OPPOSITION CONTINUES WINNING STREAK IN WEST BENGAL BY-ELECTIONS; CONFIRMS LEFT'S DOWNWARD SLIDE REF: A. KOLKATA 276 ¶B. KOLKATA 144 ¶1. (U) In West Bengal, the Opposition and independent parties won nine of the ten state assembly seats in the November 7 by-elections to the state assembly. They retained all seven previously held seats and snatched two from the ruling Left Front coalition. Trinamool, the leading opposition party in West Bengal, continued the winning streak begun in 2008 with the local assembly polls, and won all seven seats contested. ¶2. (SBU) In West Bengal, the Left's poor performance in this year's national parliamentary polls (Reftel B),municipal polls and the recent by-elections have prompted calls from both inside and outside of the Left Front for early state elections. According to the Indian constitution, state elections must be held within five years of forming a government; West Bengal state assembly elections are due by May 2011. While the Left Front still has an overwhelming majority in the state assembly (231 of 295 members),this legislative majority no longer reflects the Left Front's much diminished political strength in West Bengal. Several ministers from the ruling Left Front coalition, including the dominant party, the Communist Party of India - Marxist (CPI-M),have publicly spoken about the possibility of early elections as part of a strategy to minimize electoral losses. The Opposition has argued for them citing the Left's lack of political support in the state, emphasizing the fact that it no longer represents the political will of the people. However, on November 17 Left Front parties met and officially ruled out early elections. The Chief Minister defended the decision citing that the people had elected the government in 2006 with a mandate to rule for five years. Later that day, a senior CPI-M national parliamentarian and central committee member Shyamal Chakraborty confirmed to ConGen that early elections would not be called; however, his confirmation was less than assuring. Furthermore, he contextualized any hypothetical Left Front loss in the next state elections with a reference to its 1972 defeat, following which it returned to power five years later and ruled uninterrupted for the next 32 years. His message was clear: we may lose the state assembly elections, but it will be a one-off setback and we will return even stronger. Comment ¶3. (SBU) The question in Bengal is not if the Opposition will displace the Left, but rather when. Public discourse about the possibility of early elections, and Left Front politicians' discussion of any hypothetical loss, are additional signs that the Left is on its way out. At this time, it does not appear that the West Bengal government will call for early elections as the party has concluded that early elections are not in the party's best interests. While one cannot rule out tactical mistakes by the Opposition, public mood is clearly in favor of such change (Reftel A). Post expects a Trinamool-led West Bengal government to be closer to U.S. positions than the CPI-M, given its lack of ideological opposition to the United States and participation in the current United Progressive Alliance government led by Manmohan Singh. ¶4. (SBU) The CPI-M's loss of West Bengal will be a serious setback to the future of the party nationwide. National parties derive a portion of their political power not only from the number of parliamentarians in New Delhi, but also the number of state governments that they lead. Of the three state governments that the CPI-M leads (West Bengal, Kerala and Tripura),West Bengal is the most important politically, economically and culturally. It is also the state where the CPI-M is most developed. The Berlin Wall may have fallen more than 20 years ago, but a figurative "Bengal Wall" built by the CPI-M 32 years ago has not. However, cracks are turning into fissures in one of the last remaining vestiges of the Cold War in India. PAYNE