ASSAM ELECTORAL PRIMER - ETHNICITY, ALLIANCES AND TERRORISM

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KOLKATA 000022 SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR SA/INS (FITZGIBBONS) E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PTER SOCI PREL PGOV IN BG SUBJECT: ASSAM ELECTORAL PRIMER - ETHNICITY, ALLIANCES AND TERRORISM REF: KOLKATA 302 KOLKATA 00000022 001.2 OF 003 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Ethnicity and migration in the northeastern state of Assam will continue to be a key issue in the state during the upcoming national elections. The Congress Party is confident of maintaining its current number of parliamentary seats in the state contingent; however, the relatively new regional party Assam United Democratic Front (AUDF) may cut into its Muslim voter constituency. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has reached an understanding with the regional party Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) to jointly contest the elections, but the AGP is privately concerned about the alienating effect of the BJP's Hindutva policies on its supporters. State government officials, politicians and representatives from the business community are concerned about the possibility of external linkages in the October 30 bomb blasts and reduced level of national attention on Assam in the aftermath of the November 26 Mumbai attacks. End summary. ¶2. (SBU) Politicians, business leaders and journalists have identified migration from Bangladesh and ethnicity as key electoral issues in the upcoming national elections. Assam is one of the most diverse states in India, with over 100 ethnicities and three official state languages (Assamese, Bodo and Bengali) in addition to the national languages (English and Hindi). Approximately two-thirds of the population is Hindu and a little less than a third is Muslim, with high Muslim concentrations in the state capital of Guwahati and the districts bordering Bangladesh. The remaining population consists of small Buddhist, Christian and tribal animist minorities. Ethnic Assamese constitute approximately one-half of the state's population, Bengalis one-quarter and tribals (one of which is the Bodo tribe) and other ethnicities the remaining one-quarter. ¶3. (SBU) Various tribal groups have long advocated, both peacefully and violently, for political recognition and a greater share of the economic opportunities. The state and central government have sought to appease numerous insurgent or separatist movements through tribal recognition and, in some cases, the creation of new Indian states. In 1963 Nagaland separated from Assam and in 1972 Meghalaya, Manipur, Tripura, Arunachal Pradesh (then Northeast Frontier Agency) and Mizoram followed suit. According to a think tank there are almost 40 insurgent movements in Assam, 12 of which are active, with the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) and the National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB) the most active. Both ULFA and NDFB seek to create sovereign states outside of the Indian Union, based either on geography (ULFA - Assam) or ethnicity (NDFB - Bodos),and have employed violence to achieve their political objectives. Although NDFB (since 2005) and a portion of the ULFA (since 2008) are currently observing a ceasefire with the GoI, individuals affiliated with the organizations are alleged to have been involved in several terrorist attacks in 2008, including the October 2008 bombings (Reftel). ¶4. (SBU) The first large scale demographic changes in Assam occurred in 1841 when the British plantation owners brought laborers from Bihar for tea cultivation. Bengali migration from adjoining areas, such as Mymensingh in eastern Bengal (now Bangladesh),began in the early 19th century with the British annexation of Northeast India. Indian Independence in 1947 and the 1971 Indo-Pak war that resulted in the birth of Bangladesh prompted additional waves of Bangladeshis. In the late 1970s ethnic Assamese, under the banner of the All Assam Students' Union, protested the significant increase in registered non-Assamese voters, which they contended were illegal immigrants. This movement, popularly referred to as the Assam Agitation, resulted in the 1985 Assam Accord whereby the organization agreed to March 1971 (they had previously insisted on 1951) as the cutoff date for determining legal residency. In 2005 the Supreme Court struck down previous Assam-specific immigrant friendly legislation guaranteed by the Assam Accord as unconstitutional and re-affirmed the Foreigner's Act of 1946 which places the onus on the individual to prove his legal entry and right to remain in country. ¶5. (SBU) Today, there are no reliable estimates of the percentage of legal versus illegal Bangladeshis in Assam. There is a growing concern amongst the ethnic Assamese community, which is overwhelmingly Hindu with a small Muslim minority, that the increase in Bangladeshis through alleged illegal migration is threatening the state's sense of identity. Post contacts are also concerned by the porous border with Bangladesh and the alleged cross-border travel and support that northeast insurgent groups receive from Bangladesh-based individuals and organizations. Congress Confident of Success in Parliamentary Elections KOLKATA 00000022 002.2 OF 003 ¶6. (U) The Congress Party led by Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi has been in power in the Assam state government since 2001. Assam has 14 Lok Sabha (lower house) parliamentarians (Congress 9, AGP 2, BJP 2 and independent 1). On December 11, representatives from the Assam state Congress Party confidently told Poloff that they expected to retain their nine Lok Sabha seats in the upcoming national elections. They opined that the AGP's electoral alliance with the BJP would alienate some of the AGP's supporters. They acknowledged that the AGP had recently made inroads with tea laborers, a firm Congress constituency, but maintained that they would still win 90 percent of the votes from this group. While the vice president of the state Congress Party emphasized the Congress-led national government's accomplishments, including the U.S.-India Civil Nuclear Agreement, other party functionaries present at the meeting acknowledged that the agreement would not be used in the campaign as it had little relevance to the common man in Assam. BJP and AGP Reach an "Understanding" ¶7. (SBU) In a meeting with PolOff, the BJP claimed to have reached an electoral alliance with the regional AGP for the upcoming national election. In contrast, the AGP described their agreement as an "understanding" rather than "alliance" with the BJP, expressing concerns about the BJP's Hindutva policies possibly alienating voters. Neither the BJP nor the AGP predicted electoral gains for their parties and appeared more interested in preserving their existing number of seats. The AGP, both in public and in private, has railed against Bangladeshi migration and the failure of the Congress-led state government to conclude its investigations into the October 30 blasts and improve the state's internal security. The leader of the opposition, AGP's Chandramohan Patwary, told PolOff he is particularly concerned about the fall-off in national interest in the October 30 terrorist attacks. He claimed that his recent trip to Delhi was instrumental in mobilizing the AGP's December 10 walkout from national parliament and the successful call for a separate parliamentary debate on Assam (which was held on December 15.) AUDF - Not an Islamic Party ¶8. (SBU) The AUDF is perhaps the most optimistic of the political parties operating in Assam about its electoral prospects. Maulana Badruddin Ajmal, a businessman, founded the AUDF in October 2005 to serve the interests of the ethnic and linguistic minorities in Assam. The AUDF working president Hafiz Rashid Choudhury stressed to PolOff that the AUDF is not a "Muslim party" and that two of its ten state assembly members are non-Muslim. The working president confided that in the event that AUDF wins one or two parliamentary seats it will consider expanding its presence to other states, such as Uttar Pradesh, with large "ethnic or linguistic" (i.e., Muslim) minorities. Mohammed Salim, (CPI-M) MP from West Bengal and member of the party's Central Committee, told Poloff in January 2009 that the AUDF had approached the CPI-M about jointly contesting the elections in Assam; however, the CPI-M was not interested in the prospect. (Note: The CPI-M may be intrigued by the short-term electoral gains possible by an AUDF tie-up in Assam; however, it appears reluctant to do anything that would encourage a minority or regional party in the neighboring state that could threaten its stronghold in West Bengal.) "External Engineering" in the October 30 Terrorist Attacks ¶9. (SBU) On December 12 a state minister, who also serves as the official government spokesman, privately told Poloff that the government is convinced that there was "external engineering" in the October 30 terrorist attacks in Assam with the ULFA or NDFB providing logistical support. He questioned an apparent Indian double standard in the importance of confronting cross-border terrorism on the western front with Pakistan and the eastern front with Bangladesh. Poloff's business, political and media contacts during the December 2008 trip uniformly cited some type of external assistance (inferring, but never explicitly mentioning, support from individuals based in Bangladesh); however, none were able to provide definitive proof. Comment ¶10. (SBU) The ethnic Assamese community continues to be concerned that an expanding Bengali Muslim population from Bangladesh threatens Assamese identity. While terrorists have generally avoided targeting religious establishments in Assam, there is a potential for communal violence in Assam if Hindu or Muslim religious or community venues are targeted in future terrorist attacks in order to exploit this underlying ethnic KOLKATA 00000022 003.2 OF 003 sentiment. There is a belief, perpetuated by some of the Indian media, that individuals based in Bangladesh (but not sanctioned by the Government of Bangladesh) are equipping or training northeast insurgent groups; however, there has been no official GoI pronouncement on the matter. The opposition AGP and BJP parties may include terrorism in their campaign platform and blame the state government for its inadequate response. However, it is not clear how effective this strategy will be because the public anger and revulsion in this northeastern state is directed against the insurgent groups and those allegedly providing them assistance across the border. To win in Assam, Congress needs to demonstrate that it can provide law and order and maintain broad-based secular appeal to prevent the regional parties (AGP and AUDF) from siphoning off voters based either on ethnicity or religion. PAYNE