A POLITICAL CRISIS IN JHARKHAND AS PRELUDE TO THE NATIONAL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KOLKATA 000019 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV IN SUBJECT: A POLITICAL CRISIS IN JHARKHAND AS PRELUDE TO THE NATIONAL ELECTIONS REF: A. A) 08 KOLKATA 229 ¶B. B) 08 KOLKATA 295 KOLKATA 00000019 001.2 OF 002 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: On January 19, the Government of India's (GoI) Cabinet recommended President's rule and the suspension of the state assembly in the eastern state of Jharkhand after state legislators could not agree on a consensus candidate for Chief Minister. A state-level political battle for control that would have played out in February 2010 is being fought now against the backdrop of upcoming national parliamentary elections in Spring ¶2009. The two questions are: who will be Chief Minister and when will the state elections be held. However, given the United Progressive Alliance's (UPA) majority in both parliament and the state assembly, if a consensus candidate cannot be found and a new state government formed in the next couple of weeks, we should expect the continuation of President's Rule and no new state elections before the national elections this spring. If state elections were held today, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) appears well positioned to increase the number of state assembly seats in Jharkhand and generate a bit of positive momentum for the party in the upcoming national elections. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) On January 12, Shibu Soren resigned as Chief Minister following his failure to win election to the state assembly within six months of assuming office. Since the Chief Minister is constitutionally required to be a member of the state legislator, Soren ran for a seat in the Tamar constituency where the death of the former legislator forced a by-election. He lost to Jharkhand Party legislator Raja Peter and was obliged to resign as Chief Minister thereby triggering the political crisis. In August 2008, Madhu Koda, an independent candidate backed by the UPA, stepped down to allow Soren, president of the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM),to become Chief Minister. At the time, it was widely believed that Congress gave Soren the Chief Minister position as a political quid pro quo in exchange for his support - he controls five JMM parliamentarians - for the UPA in the July 22, 2008 vote of confidence over the US-India civilian-nuclear deal (Ref A). Who Will Be Chief Minister? ¶3. (SBU) Following Soren's resignation, the UPA partners in Jharkhand have been unable to agree on a consensus candidate for the chief minister position. While the BJP is the largest party in the state assembly (29 of 81 seats),the JMM (17),Congress Party (9) and the Rastriya Janata Dal - (7) along with other smaller parties, were previously able to form a government under the UPA banner. According to contacts, Soren insisted on a JMM candidate, Champai Soren (no relation),for the Chief Minister position. On the other hand, RJD party president and influential Union Railways Minister Lalu Prasad Yadav backed Koda's return as Chief Minister. According to a well-informed media contact, the Congress Party does not want to put forward a Chief Minister candidate at this time, as it does not want to be seen as profiting from the political crisis. ¶4. (U) With UPA unable to find a consensus candidate, the GoI Cabinet recommended President's rule and suspended the state assembly on January 19. In the Indian parliamentary system, President's Rule under suspended animation provides state legislators with additional time to form a government or, if unsuccessful, to initiate new assembly elections. President's Rule can be also be imposed after dissolution of the assembly - in which case there cannot be a popularly elected government until after the next assembly elections. Under President's Rule, the Governor becomes the chief executive leading civil servants deputed from the Indian Ministry of Home Affairs. The state government and legislators cede executive and legislative responsibilities. When Will State Elections Be Held? ¶5. (SBU) Individuals and parties are split not only as to who should lead the government of Jharkhand, but when state elections should be held. According to Jharkhand Congress General Secretary Manishankar, state legislators are uniformly interested in retaining their seats and finishing their terms in February 2010. National parliamentarians from Jharkhand would also like to see national elections precede state elections as it provides defeated national candidates with a later option of contesting state elections. The regional parties are focused on the Chief Minister position and forming a Jharkhand state government whereas, the two national parties, Congress and the BJP, view the Jharkhand political crisis as a prelude to the 2009 National Elections and are looking to extract maximum political gain from the situation. According to a well-informed media contact, the Congress Party would like to showcase its ability to govern and address flagrant corruption. In recent days, there have been several high profile transfers in the KOLKATA 00000019 002.2 OF 002 anti-corruption department to better investigate ongoing corruption cases, which may be of concern to several state legislators in this notoriously corrupt state. The Congress Party would like to maintain UPA unity and avoid a possible poor showing at early state elections as it would be interpreted as a sign of weakness for the party in the national elections. On the other hand, the BJP is eager to emphasize cracks within the UPA and its inability to form a government. According to senior BJP state legislator Sarayu Rai the party wants immediate state elections in which it would expect to gain seats (Ref B). Comment ¶6. (SBU) Jharkhand's latest political crisis has spotlighted the state in the run up to the national elections. While UPA legislators are anxious to find a consensus candidate in order to avoid early state assembly elections, a suitable candidate remains elusive. BJP and its allies relish the disagreement within the UPA and favor immediate state assembly elections since it gives them an opportunity to gain seats and demonstrate their popularity before the general election. Since Congress would probably benefit politically from President's Rule and lose politically if state assembly elections are held before the national elections, they are likely to try to maintain President's rule and put off state elections until after the national elections in Spring 2009. PAYNE