EASTERN DRC NOTES - FEBRUARY 2

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KINSHASA 000098

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS PHUM PREF KPKO CG
SUBJECT: EASTERN DRC NOTES - FEBRUARY 2


1. (U) The items contained in this report consist principally of
spot information from various sources. This report is not
exhaustive, nor can all the information contained therein be
confirmed at this time.


Summary
--------------


2. (SBU) During a February 1 press conference, President Kabila
defended his decision to allow Rwandan troops to enter the DRC to
pursue the FDLR. According to Kabila, RDF troops would leave the
DRC by the end of February. Kabila also defended the GDRC's
cooperation with CNDP renegade Bosco Ntaganda, against whom the ICC
has an arrest warrant, emphasizing peace and security in the Kivus
was more urgent than international justice concerns. The lack of
military engagement with the FDLR has led some MONUC contacts to
assume that the joint operations are concentrating on psychological
operations, apparently with success: 214 Rwandan rebels have
recently surrendered to UNHCR and DDRRR reports that it successfully
repatriated 47 combatants and their dependents on February 1. The
security and humanitarian situation in Orientale Province remains
very precarious, with residents in Dungu and Doruma towns fearing
renewed attacks by the LRA. In response to these fears, a very thin
MONUC presence, and increasing FARDC exactions, residents are
forming self-defense militias. SRSG Alan Doss acknowledged that
MONUC could not carry out its protection mandate adequately in
Orientale Province until additional troops, authorized by the UNSC,
arrive in the DRC. End Summary.


LRA: Operation Lightning Thunder
--------------


3. (SBU) MONUC continues to play a very limited role in Operation
Thunder. SRSG Doss stated that MONUC cannot adequately perform its
protection mandate in Orientale Province until it receives the
additional 3,000 troops, which the UNSC has authorized. UN contacts
in Goma and Kinshasa have voiced concerns to Emboffs that the LRA
may try to request support from traditional sources in the
Government of Sudan.


4. (SBU) USAID/DART Deputy Team Leader, who recently visited the
area as part of an assessment team, reported that, although Dungu
remained calm, residents fear LRA attacks, as well as FARDC looting.
There have been reports of FARDC soldiers perpetrating rapes and
extortion in Dungu. FARDC troops reportedly also levy informal
"taxes" on individuals entering the town, threatening those who are
unable to pay.


5. (SBU) Dungu residents expressed a lack of confidence in the
abilities of MONUC, the FARDC, or the UPDF to adequately protect the
population. MONUC forces are based 13 kilometers outside of Dungu,
entering the town only when escorting UN staff. Accordingly,
self-defense militias have been formed, with more weapons on the
street.


6. (SBU) Further north in Doruma, the security situation remains
very precarious due to continued LRA attacks in the vicinity. Less
than 50 FARDC troops and approximately five UPDF soldiers are
stationed in Doruma, with no MONUC presence. IDPs in the area told
USAID/DART Deputy Team Leader that Doruma is a likely LRA target
because of insufficient military protection and the town's
geographic vulnerability.


Operation Lightning Thunder-Humanitarian Issues
-------------- --


7. (SBU) According to Caritas, 10,370 IDP households, or
approximately 51,850 people, reside in and around Dungu, far below
previous OCHA estimates. Only Solidarites and Medecins Sans
Frontieres (MSF) operate in Dungu. Caritas and UNHCR's local NGO
partner, ADSSE deliver assistance to outlying villages and conduct
field assessments.


8. (SBU) As of January 29, 17,050 IDPs reside in Doruma and within
a 20-kilometer radius, according to local authorities. The
assessment team received reports of high numbers of IDPs in the
isolated villages of Bangadi, Nbilima, Nanzali, and Ndedu near
Dungu; and in the villages of Naparka and Gangala in near Doruma.


9. (SBU) Food insecurity remains a concern for villages attacked
and at-risk of attack by the LRA due to restricted access to
agricultural fields and the depletion of food stocks by the rebels.

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However, food assistance remains a lower-priority need in Dungu,
Doruma, and in villages that the LRA has not attacked. Non-food
items, particularly in Doruma, are urgently needed.


DRC-Rwandan Joint Operations
--------------


10. (SBU) MONUC reports that RDF troops have not moved since
January 26. The RDF has positioned itself along three axes in the
Petit Nord area of North Kivu, apparently reinforcing logistical
supply lines and waiting for FARDC/CNDP forces to deploy alongside.
There have been few clashes with the FDLR, leading some MONUC
officials to speculate that, currently, the joint operations are
primarily psychological operations in nature. This approach may
have already paid dividends: 214 FDLR troops have surrendered to
UNHCR, while MONUC reported that other FDLR elements had even
abandoned control of certain mining sites.


11. (SBU) MONUC has investigated several allegations of FDLR
kidnappings/atrocities against the local population; in all cases
abducted civilians were subsequently released or the reports
appeared to be groundless. Nevertheless, MONUC continues to deploy
forces to areas in North and South Kivu where the civilian
population could be vulnerable to FDLR reprisals. A senior MONUC
commander told Goma PolOff privately that MONUC's protection mandate
was "unmanageable." Priority areas include Kanyabayonga, Walikale,
and Masisi. Second tier priority areas are Pinga and Nyamilima.


12. (SBU) According to MONUC contacts, the Joint Operations Center,
set up to coordinate MONUC, FARDC, and RDF planning, is basically
non-functional. MONUC will therefore limit its operational support
to logistical assistance, which currently encompasses only CNDP
integration into the FARDC. Integration centers have been
established at Rumangabo, Kimoka and Mumbambiro (for PARECO),but
MONUC confided that the CNDP response has been "underwhelming."


13. (SBU) In a February 1 press communiqu, MONUC stated that it
would not participate in any operations in which Bosco Ntaganda also
participated. According to one MONUC source, Bosco "was not welcome
in Goma or Gisenyi." (Note: MONUC has, however, stressed, that it
has no mandate to arrest Bosco. End Note.) Bosco, who was recently
named the Deputy Commander for the joint operations, reportedly
spends considerable time in Goma. Deputy SRSG Ross Mountain
cautioned that, although the UN would be embarrassed to collaborate
with Bosco, "where peace and justice conflict, we will choose
peace."


Kabila on Rwandan Presence and Cooperation with Bosco
-------------- --------------


14. (SBU) During a February 1 press conference (septel),President
Kabila characterized FDLR presence in the DRC as the root cause of
instability, justifying the joint FARDC-RDF operations. Kabila said
the operations should end by February 10, allowing Rwandan troops to
return to Rwanda by the end of February, as well as Ugandan forces
fighting the LRA. (Note and Comment: some wire services reported
Kabila stated Ugandan forces would leave by February 15, but Digital
Congo-close to the GDRC-and other media report an end of February
deadline. Kabila is under enormous political pressure to limit the
duration of the RDF operations in the Kivus. Post suspects that
these "deadlines" may be fungible, depending on the situation on the
ground. End Comment.)


15. (SBU) Regarding GDRC cooperation with the ICC-indicted Bosco,
Kabila said that if it is a question between international justice,
which would probably not be expedient, and peace and security for
the population of Eastern DRC now, "the choice was clear." Kabila
noted that the GDRC's cooperation with the ICC had been exemplary.



The Quiet Success of DDRRR
--------------


16. (SBU) According to Bruno Donnat, Head of MONUC's DDRRR program,
approximately 200 Rwandan combatants in Eastern DRC voluntarily
repatriated to Rwanda during the month of January, compared to 70 in
January 2008. During a Saturday press conference, Donnat stressed
that, despite the on-going military operations against the FDLR,
DDRRR would continue its activities.


17. (SBU) On February 1, DDRRR repatriated 13 combatants and 34 of
their dependents near Bukavu. The group reportedly reached the
Bunyakiri transit camp after walking two days through the Numbi

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Forest and the Haut Plateau.

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