EASTERN DRC NOTES - JANUARY 29

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 000092

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS PHUM PREF KPKO CG
SUBJECT: EASTERN DRC NOTES - JANUARY 29

REF: KINSHASA 89



1. (U) The items contained in this report consist principally of
spot information from various sources. This report is not
exhaustive, nor can all the information contained therein be
confirmed at this time.

Joint FARDC/RDF Operation
--------------


2. (SBU) MONUC reported that, in its opinion, the RDF had three
basic movements: north toward Nyamilia; northeast towards Kishseshe;
and west into Masisi. MONUC also believes the RDF may initiate
combat operations near Virunga Park at Katale. There are reports of
up to 1,500 FDLR combatants massing near Ntoto, east by southeast of
Masisi. MONUC has also received unconfirmed reports that the some
FDLR elements in North and South Kivu have sent their families back
to Rwanda.


3. (SBU) MONUC passed on several unconfirmed media reports, which
are as follows: As many as 200 FDLR combatants may have fled into
Uganda, attempting to enter Bwindi National Park; that there is no
DRC/Rwanda extradition treaty; and that some CNDP elements "do not
understand Nkunda's arrest," because the CNDP leader reportedly had
been on a mission for Rwanda at the time. Separately, other
unconfirmed press reports allege that a top FDLR commander was
killed on January 28.

MONUC Contribution
--------------


4. (SBU) According to MONUC, it is re-positioning its forces to be
ready for fighting in three main areas: commercial interests of the
FDLR, particularly mines; Tutsi villages, which could be vulnerable
to FDLR reprisal attacks, including Kitchanga and Kirolirwe; and
potential IDP corridors, especially the Rutshuru-Goma road.


5. (SBU) MONUC has received information that its forces could be
targeted by the FDLR in South Kivu, particularly near Kahuzi-Biega
Park and in an area north of Bukavu and south of Kavumu. The FDLR
has also threatened to carry out reprisals on the local population
in South Kivu if the FARDC/RDF joint operation attacks the rebel
group. Local residents are reportedly concerned that FDLR elements
have begun to sell off their livestock, a sign that the group is in
"attack mode."


6. (SBU) MONUC acknowledged that its involvement in the Joint
Operations Center (JOC) has been disappointing. Although the
FARDC/RDF command had previously said (reftel) that it would brief
MONUC on recent and future operations (48 hours in advance),the JOC
subsequently told MONUC that it would not provide briefings on
future operations. In addition, only low-level military officers
were present for the January 28 briefing. MONUC commented that it
was clear that the JOC was not the operations center out of which
real decisions were being made. A senior MONUC officer quipped that
command and control seemed to be coming from DRC General John
Numbi's cellphone.


7. (SBU) MONUC described its participation as concentrating on
operational support, likely limited to logistics, and on protection.
The current situation was a "pull-push" dynamic, with DDRRR and
persuasion efforts representing the pull, while the military aspect
was clearly the push. MONUC, according to a senior military
official, would clearly provide support to the persuasion effort,
and it would also stand by to offer support with operational
matters.

Integration
--------------


8. (SBU) A ceremony to kick-off FARDC-CNDP integration at the
Rumangabo military base took place on January 29; those in
attendance included the DRC Minister of Defense, Chief of Defense
(CHOD),the Governor of North Kivu, and Malu Malu (Note: 15-20
minutes into the ceremony, Bosco Ntaganda showed up with General
Numbi; Ntaganda's presence resulted in the walkout of the
International Facilitation representatives. End note). This
ceremony was originally scheduled to take place on January 28, but
never materialized as CNDP elements refused to participate then,
characterizing the process as "messy and confusing." Some CNDP
fighters apparently stated they did not want to integrate until "the
Nkunda question" was resolved. The DRC MoD, en route to Rumangabo
for the ceremony, reportedly turned back to Goma when he received
word of the CNDP discontent.


KINSHASA 00000092 002 OF 002


Comment
--------------


9. (SBU) The original recalcitrance shown by the CNDP fighters at
Rumangabo is cause for at least some concern, to the extent that it
may reflect broader discontent within the group with respect to
events of the last month. While the ceremony appears to have gone
off without any problems, questions remain as to where the loyalty
of the CNDP rank and file really lies.

GARVELINK