PPRD PARLIAMENTARIAN GIVES CANDID VIEWS ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 000768

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/20/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM CG
SUBJECT: PPRD PARLIAMENTARIAN GIVES CANDID VIEWS ON
KABILA'S GOVERNING STYLE, PRIME MINISTER MUZITO'S FUTURE,
THE KAMERHE RESIGNATION, CORRUPTION, AND THE JUSTICE SYSTEM

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires a.i. Samuel V. Brock for reasons 1.4 (
b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: PPRD parliamentarian and former DRC Great
Lakes Envoy Jean Mbuyu Luyongola told Special Envoy Wolpe and
polcouns that dismissing Prime Minister Adolphe Muzito might
push PALU into the opposition. Kabila will easily win the
2011 elections, in Mbuyu's opinion, unless some kind of
UDPS/MLC/PALU/Vital Kamerhe alliance forms. Mbuyu called for
active international community logistical and financial
support for the 2011 elections. Mbuyu acknowledged that
former National Assembly President Vital Kamerhe's call for
greater parliamentary control over the government still
resonated in parliament. Mbuyu characterized Kabila's
decision-making as often "hesitant." Kabila, Mbuyu
emphasized, recognizes that corruption is a huge problem and
he wants to somehow tackle this challenge. The Congolese
view the judiciary system in general, and magistrates
specifically, as capricious and corrupt and therefore welcome
efforts by the presidency to rein in the magistrates,
according to Mbuyu.

Muzito and PALU
--------------


2. (C) During an August 13 meeting with Special Envoy Wolp
and polcouns, PPRD parliamentarian and former DRC Great Lakes
Envoy Jean Mbuyu Luyongola characterized the political
climate in the DRC as calm. There is an uneasy peace within
the governing majority between the president's party, the
PPRD, and its coalition partner, PALU. Mbuyu acknowledged
that there were many rumors that President Kabila would soon
replace Prime Minister Muzito (PALU). Mbuyu indicated that
most PPRD strategists, however, understood the political
fallout, should Muzito be removed. "For now," Mbuyu said,
"we have to keep Muzito" because there is no PALU politician
capable of stepping into the prime ministry. Replacing
Muzito with a PPRD figure could push PALU into the
opposition, perhaps coalescing into an MLC/UDPS/PALU
anti-presidential coalition. And, if former National
Assembly President Vital Kamerhe decided to lend his active
support to such a coalition, it would be very formidable.

Looking Ahead to the 2011 Elections
--------------


3. (C) Mbuyu voiced confidence that, if the current
presidential majority holds, Kabila will easily win the 2011
elections. However, if the PPRD has to face some kind of
UDPS/MLC/Kamerhe alliance, this would be a big challenge to
the presidential coalition. Also, MLC leader Bemba still has
many supporters, according to Mbuyu, Mbuyu pointed out that,
in general, the opposition was disunited and suffered from
internal feuding (UDPS, MLC). Violence during the election
period was unlikely, in Mbuyu's opinion, unless Bemba returns
to the DRC. Kabila, according to Mbuyu, wants a more open
political space in the DRC.


4. (C) Mbuyu called on the international community to
actively monitor the 2011 elections, building on its legacy
from the 2006 elections. The DRC would need outside support
in the form of broad geographical coverage, significant
presence of journalists and NGO activists, and, of course,
financing. Mbuyu noted that there was a concern that the
current apathy amongst the Congolese population regarding
revision of the electoral lists would transform into general
Qrevision of the electoral lists would transform into general
voter apathy.

Kamerhe's Resignation
--------------


5. (C) Mbuyu acknowledged that there were many who viewed
the Kabila-Kamerhe feud as an institutional battle between
the legislative and executive branches. Many
parliamentarians, even some from the PPRD, sympathized with
Kamerhe's call for closer consultations with parliament.
When pressed, Mbuyu said that, if there had been a free vote
without the enforcement of strict party discipline, Kamerhe
would have survived any no-confidence vote. Many PPRD MPs
feared that, if they voted for Kamerhe, the party apparatus
would dismiss them from the party; any MP who switches party
allegiance between elections automatically loses his mandate.
Now, Kabila may try to somehow bring Kamerhe back into the
PPRD fold to strengthen his faltering support in the Kivus
before the 2011 elections.

KINSHASA 00000768 002 OF 002



Kabila's Hesitation
--------------


6. (C) According to Mbuyu the GDRC generally responded
slowly to important political issues. While a president
should not be involved in so many daily operational
questions, the Congolese public expected "quick decisions and
actions" from its presidents. Kabila, Mbuyu added, often
hesitated when he was unsure or uncomfortable deciding a
particular issue. Kabila preferred instead that
institutions, e.g., parliament, would take more decisions.

Kabila Wants to Fight Corruption
--------------


7. (C) Mbuyu stressed that Kabila remained very concerned
about corruption and excessive red-tape in the DRC
administration. Kabila wants to identify a presidential
advisor who will be tasked to lead anti-corruption efforts.
Uneven application of property laws created uncertainty over
property rights. Mbuyu criticized the Ministry of Finance
for demanding a certain percentage to process paperwork and
signatures for many business contracts. Lebanese businessmen
perpetuated a non-transparent system, according to Mbuyu,
"buying" ministers and senior police officials to serve as
their advocates. PM Muzito was also allegedly active in
trying to obtain up-front money from various companies trying
to do business in the DRC. Kamerhe, according to Mbuyu had
wanted to bring Muzito before parliament to answer some of
these accusations, but Muzito flat out refused to attend.
Now there is reportedly discussion among some
parliamentarians to force Muzito to appear before the
National Assembly in September, which could, in Mbuyu's
opinion, unleash a new political crisis.


8. (C) The DRC judicial system, according to Mbuyu, was
severely deficient. While the MoJ and the executive branch
interfered with judges and magistrates, Mbuyu said most
Congolese wanted more accountability for magistrates, who are
generally viewed as capricious and corrupt. The only
possibility to rein in the magistrates, in Mbuyu's opinion,
was to turn to the presidency. This, however, left the
presidency open to criticism for interfering with
independence of the judiciary. The main problem was rather
the ethics of the magistrates.


9. (C) Comment: Although Mbuyu is no longer within the
inner presidential circle, he clearly has contacts that
afford him good insight into the DRC political scene and the
workings of the presidency. It is still uncertain whether
Kabila will replace Muzito, but he is certainly hesitating,
cognizant of the need to keep PALU in the presidential camp.
We view the possibility of some kind of UDPS/MLC/PALU/Kamerhe
opposition forming as highly unlikely. These parties suffer
from internal bickering and are based primarily on
personalities rather than political programs. If Kabila can
keep the opposition from uniting, it will be a big step
towards his re-election in 2011.
BROCK