PPRD PARLIAMENTARIAN GIVES CANDID VIEWS ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 000768 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/20/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM CG SUBJECT: PPRD PARLIAMENTARIAN GIVES CANDID VIEWS ON KABILA'S GOVERNING STYLE, PRIME MINISTER MUZITO'S FUTURE, THE KAMERHE RESIGNATION, CORRUPTION, AND THE JUSTICE SYSTEM Classified By: Charge d'Affaires a.i. Samuel V. Brock for reasons 1.4 ( b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: PPRD parliamentarian and former DRC Great Lakes Envoy Jean Mbuyu Luyongola told Special Envoy Wolpe and polcouns that dismissing Prime Minister Adolphe Muzito might push PALU into the opposition. Kabila will easily win the 2011 elections, in Mbuyu's opinion, unless some kind of UDPS/MLC/PALU/Vital Kamerhe alliance forms. Mbuyu called for active international community logistical and financial support for the 2011 elections. Mbuyu acknowledged that former National Assembly President Vital Kamerhe's call for greater parliamentary control over the government still resonated in parliament. Mbuyu characterized Kabila's decision-making as often "hesitant." Kabila, Mbuyu emphasized, recognizes that corruption is a huge problem and he wants to somehow tackle this challenge. The Congolese view the judiciary system in general, and magistrates specifically, as capricious and corrupt and therefore welcome efforts by the presidency to rein in the magistrates, according to Mbuyu. Muzito and PALU -------------- ¶2. (C) During an August 13 meeting with Special Envoy Wolp and polcouns, PPRD parliamentarian and former DRC Great Lakes Envoy Jean Mbuyu Luyongola characterized the political climate in the DRC as calm. There is an uneasy peace within the governing majority between the president's party, the PPRD, and its coalition partner, PALU. Mbuyu acknowledged that there were many rumors that President Kabila would soon replace Prime Minister Muzito (PALU). Mbuyu indicated that most PPRD strategists, however, understood the political fallout, should Muzito be removed. "For now," Mbuyu said, "we have to keep Muzito" because there is no PALU politician capable of stepping into the prime ministry. Replacing Muzito with a PPRD figure could push PALU into the opposition, perhaps coalescing into an MLC/UDPS/PALU anti-presidential coalition. And, if former National Assembly President Vital Kamerhe decided to lend his active support to such a coalition, it would be very formidable. Looking Ahead to the 2011 Elections -------------- ¶3. (C) Mbuyu voiced confidence that, if the current presidential majority holds, Kabila will easily win the 2011 elections. However, if the PPRD has to face some kind of UDPS/MLC/Kamerhe alliance, this would be a big challenge to the presidential coalition. Also, MLC leader Bemba still has many supporters, according to Mbuyu, Mbuyu pointed out that, in general, the opposition was disunited and suffered from internal feuding (UDPS, MLC). Violence during the election period was unlikely, in Mbuyu's opinion, unless Bemba returns to the DRC. Kabila, according to Mbuyu, wants a more open political space in the DRC. ¶4. (C) Mbuyu called on the international community to actively monitor the 2011 elections, building on its legacy from the 2006 elections. The DRC would need outside support in the form of broad geographical coverage, significant presence of journalists and NGO activists, and, of course, financing. Mbuyu noted that there was a concern that the current apathy amongst the Congolese population regarding revision of the electoral lists would transform into general Qrevision of the electoral lists would transform into general voter apathy. Kamerhe's Resignation -------------- ¶5. (C) Mbuyu acknowledged that there were many who viewed the Kabila-Kamerhe feud as an institutional battle between the legislative and executive branches. Many parliamentarians, even some from the PPRD, sympathized with Kamerhe's call for closer consultations with parliament. When pressed, Mbuyu said that, if there had been a free vote without the enforcement of strict party discipline, Kamerhe would have survived any no-confidence vote. Many PPRD MPs feared that, if they voted for Kamerhe, the party apparatus would dismiss them from the party; any MP who switches party allegiance between elections automatically loses his mandate. Now, Kabila may try to somehow bring Kamerhe back into the PPRD fold to strengthen his faltering support in the Kivus before the 2011 elections. KINSHASA 00000768 002 OF 002 Kabila's Hesitation -------------- ¶6. (C) According to Mbuyu the GDRC generally responded slowly to important political issues. While a president should not be involved in so many daily operational questions, the Congolese public expected "quick decisions and actions" from its presidents. Kabila, Mbuyu added, often hesitated when he was unsure or uncomfortable deciding a particular issue. Kabila preferred instead that institutions, e.g., parliament, would take more decisions. Kabila Wants to Fight Corruption -------------- ¶7. (C) Mbuyu stressed that Kabila remained very concerned about corruption and excessive red-tape in the DRC administration. Kabila wants to identify a presidential advisor who will be tasked to lead anti-corruption efforts. Uneven application of property laws created uncertainty over property rights. Mbuyu criticized the Ministry of Finance for demanding a certain percentage to process paperwork and signatures for many business contracts. Lebanese businessmen perpetuated a non-transparent system, according to Mbuyu, "buying" ministers and senior police officials to serve as their advocates. PM Muzito was also allegedly active in trying to obtain up-front money from various companies trying to do business in the DRC. Kamerhe, according to Mbuyu had wanted to bring Muzito before parliament to answer some of these accusations, but Muzito flat out refused to attend. Now there is reportedly discussion among some parliamentarians to force Muzito to appear before the National Assembly in September, which could, in Mbuyu's opinion, unleash a new political crisis. ¶8. (C) The DRC judicial system, according to Mbuyu, was severely deficient. While the MoJ and the executive branch interfered with judges and magistrates, Mbuyu said most Congolese wanted more accountability for magistrates, who are generally viewed as capricious and corrupt. The only possibility to rein in the magistrates, in Mbuyu's opinion, was to turn to the presidency. This, however, left the presidency open to criticism for interfering with independence of the judiciary. The main problem was rather the ethics of the magistrates. ¶9. (C) Comment: Although Mbuyu is no longer within the inner presidential circle, he clearly has contacts that afford him good insight into the DRC political scene and the workings of the presidency. It is still uncertain whether Kabila will replace Muzito, but he is certainly hesitating, cognizant of the need to keep PALU in the presidential camp. We view the possibility of some kind of UDPS/MLC/PALU/Kamerhe opposition forming as highly unlikely. These parties suffer from internal bickering and are based primarily on personalities rather than political programs. If Kabila can keep the opposition from uniting, it will be a big step towards his re-election in 2011. BROCK