KIVU ARMED GROUPS AND THE INTEGRATION PROCESS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 000626 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS KPKO CG SUBJECT: KIVU ARMED GROUPS AND THE INTEGRATION PROCESS REFS: KINSHASA 567 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: We recently met with representatives of various armed groups in North and South Kivu and MONUC to discuss the current state-of-play within the CNDP, the APCLS (PARECO-Hunde), PARECO-Nande, FRF, and Mai Mai Yakutumba. Intra-CNDP tensions persist with Nkunda loyalists belittling Bosco and Bosco distrusting the old guard CNDP. The APCLS is again ready to integrate, but on the condition that its troops can remain in Hunde territory. Although "General" LaFontaine has apparently returned to the bush, a deal between the GDRC and PARECO-Nande is not unattainable. The FRF remains obstinate in the face of a June 30 deadline to integrate. The most significant Mai Mai group in South Kivu, Yakutumba, is divided between those favoring integration and those waiting to take their cue from the FRF. End summary. Intra-CNDP tensions continue -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Tensions between supporters of Bosco and Nkunda appear to have somewhat subsided over the last month, but intra-CNDP relations remain strained between the two camps. According to several sources, Bosco recently forcibly held former CNDP Lieutenant Colonel Christian Pai-Pai (a Nkunda supporter) and another person overnight. General John Numbi, head of the Congolese National Police (PNC), reportedly reassured Pai-Pai, who was nominated to be Deputy Inspector General of the PNC in North Kivu, that he would "sort out" the situation when he visits Goma on June 30. ¶3. (SBU) Contacts from the Nkunda wing complained to us that Bosco was not intelligent, not well educated, and was paranoid that everyone not with him was against him. He therefore allegedly tries to buy off everyone, and if someone refuses his entreaties, he becomes even more suspicious. Ex-CNDP sources estimated that Bosco's monthly revenue is $160,000. APCLS ready to integrate, but with conditions -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Sources close to the APCLS ("Alliance des Patriotes pour un Congo Libre" in French -- aka PARECO-Hunde) told us "General" Janvier has again offered to enter integration with the remaining 800 APCLS troops outside of the process. It appears, however, that what Janvier really wants is for the FARDC to agree to allow integrated APCLS forces to remain in Hunde territory. (Note: Twenty-two Hunde community leaders have publicly backed this demand in a meeting with MONUC. End note.) APCLS contacts also reiterated complaints about growing Rwandophone power in North Kivu at the expense of other ethnic groups. PARECO-Nande: LaFontaine back to the bush -------------- ¶5. (SBU) "General" LaFontaine has reportedly returned to the bush following months of waiting patiently for a FARDC command. (Comment: The consequences of this move should not be exaggerated: the group has had one foot in the process and one foot outside the process from the start. Certain local PARECO-Nande forces may currently collaborate with the FDLR on an ad-hoc basis, but PARECO-Nande, in the present political constellation, cannot play the role of spoiler by itself. There will most likely be further GDRC/PARECO-Nande negotiations on integration. End comment.) FRF still holding out -------------- ¶6. (SBU) The deadline (June 30) for the FRF to integrate (reftel) has passed without any indication the group is willing to commit to the process. Chief GDRC negotiator Father Apollinaire Malu Malu recently reiterated the deadline and the consequences of non-compliance (categorization as armed group). The FRF responded with a letter to President Kabila and SRSG Alan Doss stating that it would not be forced into integration and emphasizing that the group did not trust Malu Malu. A South Kivu contact told us that the FRF is divided on the GDRC offer, with a group led by Bisongo (military) favoring it, while another group led by Gasore (political) and Makanika (military) oppose it. (Comment: Despite Malu Malu's public cajoling, the deadline can probably slip without significant blowback for either the FRF or GDRC. Using divide and conquer tactics, the GDRC will most likely continue to work to at least get the Bisongo group on board with integration. But this could take weeks or even months. End comment.) Mai Mai Yakutumba -------------- KINSHASA 00000626 002 OF 002 ¶7. (SBU) Although a Mai Mai Yakutumba spokesman denied it to us, there are growing rumors of a split within the group, the largest and most significant Mai Mai group in South Kivu. The split is between those willing to integrate - nearly 200 Yakutumba have already integrated - and those waiting for the FRF to make a decision. The "pro-integration" wing of Yakutumba is apparently recruiting in Maniema to inflate its numbers and status, hoping to obtain FARDC commissions for its commanders. Integration moving slowly -------------- ¶8. (SBU) In general, the South Kivu integration process is moving slowly with only 1,702 combatants and 232 arms having been processed to date. This is not particularly impressive considering that there are probably 6,000 combatants who qualify for integration. Logistical problems continue to hinder the process, but the politics has not been conducive either. ¶9. (SBU) Comment: Although discussions with various contacts in the different groups represent only a snapshot of the situation in a fluid environment, there are definitely major challenges to address to ensure that all armed groups integrate and transition from military to political entities. Alone, none of the various groups represent a spoiler for the current security situation in North Kivu. However, "difficulties" on multiple fronts with multiple groups could potentially put the process in reverse. End comment. BROCK