EASTERN DRC NOTES - JANUARY 20: GDRC AND BOSCO

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 000056 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS PHUM PREF KPKO CG SUBJECT: EASTERN DRC NOTES - JANUARY 20: GDRC AND BOSCO PUBLICIZE PEACE AGREEMENT, AGREE TO COOOPERATE AGAINST FDLR; RWANDAN SOLDIERS ENTER DRC Summary -------------- ¶1. (SBU) At a January 16 press conference in Goma, it was announced that CNDP renegade Bosco Ntaganda had signed a peace agreement with the GDRC. Ntaganda and other high-level CNDP commanders were at the press conference, as well as GDRC and GoR representatives. The press conference was preceded by a declaration signed by Ntaganda and a number of other CNDP commanders pledging to end hostilities with the FARDC, to integrate CNDP fighters into the FARDC, and to offer assistance to combat the FDLR. Nkunda has yet to respond publicly to these events. Early morning January 20, 1,600-2,000 Rwandan soldiers reportedly crossed into the DRC to commence operations against the FDLR. End Summary. CNDP and PARECO Wing Support Action Against FDLR -------------- --- ¶2. (SBU) Goma PolOff reported that Bosco Ntaganda, joined by other high level CNDP commanders, GDRC Minister of Interior Celestin Mbuyu, DRC Police Inspector John Numbi, other high-level FARDC officers, and Rwandan CHOD James Kabarebe, participated in a January 16 press conference in Goma. Mbuyu announced that Ntaganda had signed a peace agreement with the government, adding that Nkunda was now irrelevant to the peace process now that "the war is over." ¶3. (SBU) Mbuyu did not discuss any military plans during the press conference, nor did he mention how the new alignment would affect peace negotiations in Nairobi (Note: The GDRC delegation had refused to sign a cease-fire agreement with the CNDP delegation in Nairobi on January 15, stating that they were not sure the delegation spoke for the entire CNDP. End Note). The press conference was preceded by a declaration signed by Ntaganda and a number of other CNDP commanders pledging to end hostilities with the FARDC, integrate their troops into the FARDC, and offer assistance against the FDLR. ¶4. (SBU) Nkunda has yet to respond publicly to these events. Since the press conference, the only statement offered by the Nkunda wing of the CNDP was a January 17 communique announcing its support for the joint FARDC-RDF operations planned against the FDLR. Notably, the communique underlines that this collaboration pertained only to operations against the FDLR, and did not relate to the Nairobi political negotiations. ¶5. (SBU) In addition, the political and military heads of the Hutu wing of PARECO (Museveni and Mugabo, respectively) signed a statement on January 17 announcing the cessation of hostilities against the CNDP, that PARECO forces will be put under control of the FARDC, and expressing support for the joint operations against the FDLR (Note: PARECO is divided into Hutu, Hunde, and Nande wings which, at the least, do not always cooperate with one another; there is an active conflict between the Hutu and Hunde wings. For all practical purposes, "PARECO" cannot be considered a unified organization. End Note). Confusingly, however, MONUC also reported that Mugabo (who previously was suspected of having been bought off by the CNDP),recently stressed that, before the launch of military operations against the FDLR, a thorough public information campaign should be conducted with respect to the group and that relocation should be offered to its members. Rwandan Troops in DRC -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Goma PolOff and various news agencies have reported that 1,600-2,000 Rwandan soldiers have crossed into the DRC and are now in Rumangabo, between Goma and Rutshuru. A MONUC spokesperson subsequently confirmed this to the press. Comment -------------- ¶7. (SBU) It seems likely that the public offering of support to Ntaganda by the GDRC and GoR, as demonstrated by the presence of high level government representatives at the press conference, relates to a quid pro quo between the two governments: the GoR agreed to jettison Nkunda and the GDRC agreed to serious military operations against the FDLR and to allow RDF soldiers to participate in these operations. KINSHASA 00000056 002 OF 002 ¶8. (SBU) It remains unclear how the GDRC and GoR expect to weather likely international condemnation for working with the infamous "Terminator," who is under an ICC indictment; this is especially the case with respect to the GDRC which, as a signatory to the treaty establishing the ICC, has an obligation to arrest Ntaganda. The other serious, unanswered question relates to how much support Nkunda retains within the CNDP. If substantial, this could result in armed clashes between the two wings. As for the Nairobi talks, it seems doubtful they will or should continue. (Note: UN Special Envoy Obesanjo is in Kinshasa January 20 to discuss this very issue with President Kabila. End Note). ¶9. (SBU) The FDLR is losing friends fast and operations against the armed group appear to have commenced. MONUC reported that the FDLR issued a communique warning of grave consequences for any actor resorting to military means. A repeat of the kind of repercussions faced by the civilian population in Haut-Uele in the wake of operations against the LRA cannot be ruled out. GARVELINK