EASTERN DRC NOTES - JANUARY 20: GDRC AND BOSCO

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 000056

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS PHUM PREF KPKO CG
SUBJECT: EASTERN DRC NOTES - JANUARY 20: GDRC AND BOSCO
PUBLICIZE PEACE AGREEMENT, AGREE TO COOOPERATE AGAINST
FDLR; RWANDAN SOLDIERS ENTER DRC

Summary
--------------


1. (SBU) At a January 16 press conference in Goma, it was announced
that CNDP renegade Bosco Ntaganda had signed a peace agreement with
the GDRC. Ntaganda and other high-level CNDP commanders were at the
press conference, as well as GDRC and GoR representatives. The
press conference was preceded by a declaration signed by Ntaganda
and a number of other CNDP commanders pledging to end hostilities
with the FARDC, to integrate CNDP fighters into the FARDC, and to
offer assistance to combat the FDLR. Nkunda has yet to respond
publicly to these events. Early morning January 20, 1,600-2,000
Rwandan soldiers reportedly crossed into the DRC to commence
operations against the FDLR. End Summary.


CNDP and PARECO Wing Support Action Against FDLR
-------------- ---


2. (SBU) Goma PolOff reported that Bosco Ntaganda, joined by other
high level CNDP commanders, GDRC Minister of Interior Celestin
Mbuyu, DRC Police Inspector John Numbi, other high-level FARDC
officers, and Rwandan CHOD James Kabarebe, participated in a January
16 press conference in Goma. Mbuyu announced that Ntaganda had
signed a peace agreement with the government, adding that Nkunda was
now irrelevant to the peace process now that "the war is over."


3. (SBU) Mbuyu did not discuss any military plans during the press
conference, nor did he mention how the new alignment would affect
peace negotiations in Nairobi (Note: The GDRC delegation had
refused to sign a cease-fire agreement with the CNDP delegation in
Nairobi on January 15, stating that they were not sure the
delegation spoke for the entire CNDP. End Note). The press
conference was preceded by a declaration signed by Ntaganda and a
number of other CNDP commanders pledging to end hostilities with the
FARDC, integrate their troops into the FARDC, and offer assistance
against the FDLR.


4. (SBU) Nkunda has yet to respond publicly to these events. Since
the press conference, the only statement offered by the Nkunda wing
of the CNDP was a January 17 communique announcing its support for
the joint FARDC-RDF operations planned against the FDLR. Notably,
the communique underlines that this collaboration pertained only to
operations against the FDLR, and did not relate to the Nairobi
political negotiations.


5. (SBU) In addition, the political and military heads of the Hutu
wing of PARECO (Museveni and Mugabo, respectively) signed a
statement on January 17 announcing the cessation of hostilities
against the CNDP, that PARECO forces will be put under control of
the FARDC, and expressing support for the joint operations against
the FDLR (Note: PARECO is divided into Hutu, Hunde, and Nande wings
which, at the least, do not always cooperate with one another; there
is an active conflict between the Hutu and Hunde wings. For all
practical purposes, "PARECO" cannot be considered a unified
organization. End Note). Confusingly, however, MONUC also reported
that Mugabo (who previously was suspected of having been bought off
by the CNDP),recently stressed that, before the launch of military
operations against the FDLR, a thorough public information campaign
should be conducted with respect to the group and that relocation
should be offered to its members.


Rwandan Troops in DRC
--------------


6. (SBU) Goma PolOff and various news agencies have reported that
1,600-2,000 Rwandan soldiers have crossed into the DRC and are now
in Rumangabo, between Goma and Rutshuru. A MONUC spokesperson
subsequently confirmed this to the press.


Comment
--------------


7. (SBU) It seems likely that the public offering of support to
Ntaganda by the GDRC and GoR, as demonstrated by the presence of
high level government representatives at the press conference,
relates to a quid pro quo between the two governments: the GoR
agreed to jettison Nkunda and the GDRC agreed to serious military
operations against the FDLR and to allow RDF soldiers to participate
in these operations.


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8. (SBU) It remains unclear how the GDRC and GoR expect to weather
likely international condemnation for working with the infamous
"Terminator," who is under an ICC indictment; this is especially the
case with respect to the GDRC which, as a signatory to the treaty
establishing the ICC, has an obligation to arrest Ntaganda. The
other serious, unanswered question relates to how much support
Nkunda retains within the CNDP. If substantial, this could result
in armed clashes between the two wings. As for the Nairobi talks,
it seems doubtful they will or should continue. (Note: UN Special
Envoy Obesanjo is in Kinshasa January 20 to discuss this very issue
with President Kabila. End Note).


9. (SBU) The FDLR is losing friends fast and operations against the
armed group appear to have commenced. MONUC reported that the FDLR
issued a communique warning of grave consequences for any actor
resorting to military means. A repeat of the kind of repercussions
faced by the civilian population in Haut-Uele in the wake of
operations against the LRA cannot be ruled out.

GARVELINK