GDRC CABINET RESHUFFLE IMMINENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 000535 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/08/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM CG SUBJECT: GDRC CABINET RESHUFFLE IMMINENT REF: A) KINSHASA 519 B) KINSHASA 389 C) KINSHASA 273 D) KINSHASA 245 Classified By: Ambassador William J. Garvelink for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Diplomatic and host government sources in Kinshasa and Goma indicate that a cabinet reshuffle by President Joseph Kabila is imminent. A major reason behind the reshuffle is the integration of former CNDP and armed group members into mainstream political and administrative positions consistent with the March 23 agreements. Kabila will undoubtedly use the occasion to shore up the governing majority alliance (AMP - "Alliance de la Majorite Presidentielle" in French),reward loyalists, and punish those he perceives to have deviated from the coalition line. Likely winners in the reshuffle will be the CNDP, North and South Kivu armed groups and National Deputy Christophe Lutundula. likely losers include PPRD coalition partner UDEMO and Decentralization Minister Antipas Mbusa Nyamwisi. End summary. Government jobs for ex-rebels -------------- ¶2. (SBU) According to the March 23 agreements between CNDP, North and South Kivu armed groups and the GDRC (ref C),the armed groups agreed to register as political parties, address all grievances through political channels and integrate into national governance structures. (Note: CNDP has already registered and been recognized by the GDRC as a political party (ref A). The other armed groups have not been recognized as political parties. End note.) ¶3. (SBU) An embassy source in Goma reports that the CNDP has submitted a list of names to the GDRC for national, provincial, territorial, public enterprise, and security sector postings and is expecting confirmation of nominations by June 30. (Note: Kabila is expected to celebrate DRC Independence Day (June 30) in Goma this year. End note.) The same source reports that South Kivu armed groups have submitted 11 names to the GDRC and anticipate confirmation of postings possibly by June 15. ¶4. (SBU) A diplomatic source in Kinshasa noted that AMP National Deputy Christophe Lutundula, former First Vice President of the National Assembly, may be rewarded with a ministerial post for his prompt resignation from the executive directorate in February. Outward bound? -------------- ¶5. (C) The same diplomatic source has indicated that Minister of Defense Charles Mwando Nsimba may be replaced. The source suggested that Mwando was named MoD in the November 2008 reshuffle at the bidding of General John Numbi, head of the national police and commander of the joint DRC-Rwandan anti-FDLR operations in early 2009. Numbi reportedly anticipated a measure of control over Mwando and the army. Mwando has, however, displayed a degree of independence that Numbi did not expect, according to the source. ¶6. (C) Manya Moupondo, a member of the GDRC's negotiating team with armed groups, told us that the big loser in a cabinet change will be the UDEMO party ("Union des democrates mobutistes" in French) led by Joseph Nzanga Mobutu, the son of former president Mobutu. MOBUTU may have aggravated the AMP coalition by delaying the UDEMO seat resignation from the executive directorate of the National Assembly during the Kamerhe affair (refs B and D). Moupondo added that, because of the name recognition value, Kabila may keep MOBUTU in the government but replace the other UDEMO members of government. Within the framework of the imposition of a "Rwandophone" regime in North Kivu, our Goma source said it is probable that Decentralization Minister Antipas Mbusa Nyamwisi (a Nande) will lose out in the reshuffle. ¶7. (C) Comment: The entry of the former CNDP and armed group elements into the government represents a milestone in the resolution of the conflict in the eastern DRC. In light of CNDP and armed group concerns over the level of GDRC commitment to the March 23 agreements, the delivery of politically and financially lucrative posts to armed groups will satiate their short-term demands. Undoubtedly, there will be disgruntled elements left out of the new government. KINSHASA 00000535 002 OF 002 Kabila and the circle of advisors around him may also feel emboldened by the successful replacement of National Assembly president Vital Kamerhe and move to consolidate the power of the AMP coalition and recapture political support in the east by bringing new members from this region into the alliance. End comment. GARVELINK