PROMINENT NORTH KIVU TUTSI ON GOVERNOR PALUKU,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 000495

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/22/2019
TAGS: ECIN MOPS PGOV PHUM PREF CG
SUBJECT: PROMINENT NORTH KIVU TUTSI ON GOVERNOR PALUKU,
CNDP, BOSCO, INTEGRATION, AND THE CEPGL

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires S. Brock for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Prominent Tutsi businessmen Emmanuel
Kamanzi recently told us that North Kivu Governor Julien
Paluku is in a political fight to maintain his position, with
President Kabila favoring his replacement by former governor
Eugene Serufuli. However, Kamanzi noted that it is still
uncertain whether or not Serufuli will prevail in the face of
strong Nande opposition. Kamanzi warned that any move to
extradite or harm Nkunda would evoke a backlash from the
Nkunda camp within the CNDP. Kamanzi said that during a
recent meeting with Bosco Ntaganda, the former CNDP Chief of
Staff had been "nervous about the ICC
warrant." Kamanzi highlighted the Economic Community of
Great Lakes States (CEPGL) as a vehicle to promote closer
regional economic integration. End summary.


2. (SBU) We recently met with Emmanuel Kamanzi, a prominent
Tutsi businessman in Goma and former RCD Minister of Finance.
He was involved in the Amani Peace Process until he resigned
in September 2008. Kamanzi, who has close ties to Nkunda
loyalists, is not related to Desire Kamanzi, the new CNDP
President.

North Kivu Governor Fighting for Political Survival
-------------- --------------


3. (C) Actively involved in local politics, Kamanzi told us
that North Kivu Governor Julien Paluku is under serious
political pressure, with President Kabila likely to replace
him in the next few months. There are several reasons for
Paluku's troubles, according to Kamanzi: his poor
performance; apparent Rwandan dissatisfaction with the
governor; and Paluku's close association with Minister of
Decentralization and Territorial Organization Antipas Mbusa
Nyamwisi, with whom Kabila is reportedly increasingly at odds.


4. (C) To replace Paluku, Kamanzi said the Government of
Rwanda would prefer former governor Eugene Serufuli.
However, in Kamanzi's opinion, the Nande majority in the
North Kivu Parliament would not confirm a Hutu. Instead,
parliament might opt for a governor from a minority
community, but not Tutsi. Kamanzi acknowledged that if in
the end Kabila wants Serufuli in the governor's post and he
is willing to spread some money around, then Serufuli will
become governor (Comment: Paluku's imminent departure has
been an open secret for several months. While he is
undoubtedly in a more precarious political position now,
Rwandophonie proponents may be fanning these rumors. End
comment).

Life in the CNDP
--------------


5. (C) Kamanzi confirmed that the new CNDP leadership is
working hard to politically integrate the old guard CNDP.
While one reason is increased access to financing, the new
CNDP also realizes it can control the movement better with
everyone inside. Nevertheless, the old guard will never
fully trust the new leadership, particularly not Bosco
Ntaganda. Their most immediate concern is Nkunda's fate. If
he is extradited or harmed, according to Kamanzi, "there will
be trouble." (Comment: Kamanzi was clearly voicing his
strong personal view. End comment)


6. (C) Kamanzi said he had recently talked to Ntaganda, who
remains "nervous about the ICC warrant." Ntaganda had
complained to Kamanzi that Nkunda, under house arrest, has
fewer problems than he did. In Kamanzi's opinion, if
Ntaganda senses real danger, he will go into the bush with
"hundreds, but not thousands" of CNDP supporters.

Integration: Reconciling Old Enemies
--------------


7. (SBU) Kamanzi agreed that non-payment of salaries and
undisciplined elements of the FARDC remained major concerns.
He pointed to the difficulty of reconciling erstwhile enemies
-- CNDP and PARECO -- as an even bigger threat, however, to
integration efforts. Kamanzi dismissed on-going threats by
Mai Mai groups to withdraw from integration as publicity
stunts.

CEPGL as Engine for Economic Integration
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8. (SBU) Kamanzi praised the Economic Community of Great
Lakes States (CEPGL) as a potential engine for regional
economic integration, as well as for inter-community
reconciliation. The GDRC has finally nominated a Deputy
Executive Secretary for the CEPGL -- Alphonse Ntumba Luaba.
(Biographical Note and Comment: Luaba is a Luba from Kasai
Orientale Province. A law professor, he currently heads
UEPN-DDR, the government office overseeing the DDR process.
Kamanzi did not hide his disappointment that a Rwandophone
was not chosen for the position. It is significant that one
was not chosen, a sign that a "Rwandophonie takeover" of
North Kivu is far from assured. End biographical note and
comment).


9. (C) Comment: Kamanzi, who described the North Kivu
members of the National Monitoring Committee as "old-time
manipulators and self-interested profiteers," clearly belongs
in this category himself. Still, he is, for the moment, on
the winning side. Perhaps as a sign of the changed
environment, his formerly sleepy restaurant in downtown Goma
is now bustling with politicians and ex-CNDP officers.
Support for re-invigorating the CEPGL has found broad support
across the political and ethnic spectrum. European donors
are considering financial and logistical support for the
organization. Depending on initial developments, it could
warrant broader international community support. End comment.
BROCK