PROMINENT NORTH KIVU TUTSI ON GOVERNOR PALUKU,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 000495 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/22/2019 TAGS: ECIN MOPS PGOV PHUM PREF CG SUBJECT: PROMINENT NORTH KIVU TUTSI ON GOVERNOR PALUKU, CNDP, BOSCO, INTEGRATION, AND THE CEPGL Classified By: Charge d'Affaires S. Brock for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Prominent Tutsi businessmen Emmanuel Kamanzi recently told us that North Kivu Governor Julien Paluku is in a political fight to maintain his position, with President Kabila favoring his replacement by former governor Eugene Serufuli. However, Kamanzi noted that it is still uncertain whether or not Serufuli will prevail in the face of strong Nande opposition. Kamanzi warned that any move to extradite or harm Nkunda would evoke a backlash from the Nkunda camp within the CNDP. Kamanzi said that during a recent meeting with Bosco Ntaganda, the former CNDP Chief of Staff had been "nervous about the ICC warrant." Kamanzi highlighted the Economic Community of Great Lakes States (CEPGL) as a vehicle to promote closer regional economic integration. End summary. ¶2. (SBU) We recently met with Emmanuel Kamanzi, a prominent Tutsi businessman in Goma and former RCD Minister of Finance. He was involved in the Amani Peace Process until he resigned in September 2008. Kamanzi, who has close ties to Nkunda loyalists, is not related to Desire Kamanzi, the new CNDP President. North Kivu Governor Fighting for Political Survival -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) Actively involved in local politics, Kamanzi told us that North Kivu Governor Julien Paluku is under serious political pressure, with President Kabila likely to replace him in the next few months. There are several reasons for Paluku's troubles, according to Kamanzi: his poor performance; apparent Rwandan dissatisfaction with the governor; and Paluku's close association with Minister of Decentralization and Territorial Organization Antipas Mbusa Nyamwisi, with whom Kabila is reportedly increasingly at odds. ¶4. (C) To replace Paluku, Kamanzi said the Government of Rwanda would prefer former governor Eugene Serufuli. However, in Kamanzi's opinion, the Nande majority in the North Kivu Parliament would not confirm a Hutu. Instead, parliament might opt for a governor from a minority community, but not Tutsi. Kamanzi acknowledged that if in the end Kabila wants Serufuli in the governor's post and he is willing to spread some money around, then Serufuli will become governor (Comment: Paluku's imminent departure has been an open secret for several months. While he is undoubtedly in a more precarious political position now, Rwandophonie proponents may be fanning these rumors. End comment). Life in the CNDP -------------- ¶5. (C) Kamanzi confirmed that the new CNDP leadership is working hard to politically integrate the old guard CNDP. While one reason is increased access to financing, the new CNDP also realizes it can control the movement better with everyone inside. Nevertheless, the old guard will never fully trust the new leadership, particularly not Bosco Ntaganda. Their most immediate concern is Nkunda's fate. If he is extradited or harmed, according to Kamanzi, "there will be trouble." (Comment: Kamanzi was clearly voicing his strong personal view. End comment) ¶6. (C) Kamanzi said he had recently talked to Ntaganda, who remains "nervous about the ICC warrant." Ntaganda had complained to Kamanzi that Nkunda, under house arrest, has fewer problems than he did. In Kamanzi's opinion, if Ntaganda senses real danger, he will go into the bush with "hundreds, but not thousands" of CNDP supporters. Integration: Reconciling Old Enemies -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Kamanzi agreed that non-payment of salaries and undisciplined elements of the FARDC remained major concerns. He pointed to the difficulty of reconciling erstwhile enemies -- CNDP and PARECO -- as an even bigger threat, however, to integration efforts. Kamanzi dismissed on-going threats by Mai Mai groups to withdraw from integration as publicity stunts. CEPGL as Engine for Economic Integration -------------- KINSHASA 00000495 002 OF 002 ¶8. (SBU) Kamanzi praised the Economic Community of Great Lakes States (CEPGL) as a potential engine for regional economic integration, as well as for inter-community reconciliation. The GDRC has finally nominated a Deputy Executive Secretary for the CEPGL -- Alphonse Ntumba Luaba. (Biographical Note and Comment: Luaba is a Luba from Kasai Orientale Province. A law professor, he currently heads UEPN-DDR, the government office overseeing the DDR process. Kamanzi did not hide his disappointment that a Rwandophone was not chosen for the position. It is significant that one was not chosen, a sign that a "Rwandophonie takeover" of North Kivu is far from assured. End biographical note and comment). ¶9. (C) Comment: Kamanzi, who described the North Kivu members of the National Monitoring Committee as "old-time manipulators and self-interested profiteers," clearly belongs in this category himself. Still, he is, for the moment, on the winning side. Perhaps as a sign of the changed environment, his formerly sleepy restaurant in downtown Goma is now bustling with politicians and ex-CNDP officers. Support for re-invigorating the CEPGL has found broad support across the political and ethnic spectrum. European donors are considering financial and logistical support for the organization. Depending on initial developments, it could warrant broader international community support. End comment. BROCK