TRANSFORMATION OF KIVU ARMED GROUPS INTO POLITICAL

UNCLAS KINSHASA 000438

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS PHUM PREF KPKO CG
SUBJECT: TRANSFORMATION OF KIVU ARMED GROUPS INTO POLITICAL
PARTIES

REF: KINSHASA 223


1. (SBU) Summary: Based on recent conversations in Goma, it appears
that a majority of the armed groups in North and South Kivu will
coalesce into four political parties. The CNDP and PARECO-Hutu will
create individual parties, and most of the various Mai-Mai groups
will form two umbrella groupings (reftel reports on initial steps on
the latter move). All the interested parties have deposited their
founding documents with the GDRC and await official recognition by
the Minister of the Interior. End summary.


2. (SBU) Elements from fifteen of the Mai-Mai groups in North and
South Kivu have agreed to form a party called the Union of
Democratic Congolese Resistance (in French, "Union de Resistance
Democratique Congolaise"--URDC). It comprises elements from the
following groups: Mai-Mai Yakutumba, Zabuloni, Ny'Kiriba, Mahoro,
Kapopo, Kasindien, Shikito, Kirikicho, Simba, Rwenzori, Mongol,
Mudundu 40, PARECO/South Kivu, UJPS, and Raia Mutomboki.


3. (SBU) The President of this party is Vincent Ngeya Tambwe, the
Yakutumba representative to the Amani structures, and its
Secretary-General is Assanda Mwenebatu, the Yakutumba spokesman.
The latter has also been the permanent secretary of the Amani joint
commission since the middle of last year. As a Yakutumba-driven
creation, it is likely to be more focused on South Kivu than on
North Kivu despite its mixed membership.


4. (SBU) The second Mai-Mai grouping is known as the "Alliance of
Popular and Patriotic Forces of Congo" (in French, "Alliance des
Forces Populaires et Patriotiques du Congo"--AFPC). It brings
together elements from seven Mai-Mai groups across the two Kivus
(Note: Certain Mai-Mai groups have elements represented in both
parties. End note). The seven groups are as follows: Mai-Mai
Vurondo, Kasindien, Shabunda, Mongol, Simba (North Kivu),Simba
(South Kivu),and PARECO/South Kivu. The architect of this party
appears to be Jules Ziringabo, member of Simba (South Kivu) and
formerly of the AFDL. Most of the others involved appear to be
political novices.


5. (SBU) Ziringabo told us that the AFPC represented the "real
Mai-Mai groups," with a political agenda, unlike the URDC, which was
only concerned with gaining government positions for its leadership.
The AFPC, Ziringabo claimed, is not just Kivu-based; rather, it has
nation-wide support. In a separate meeting, URDC Secretary General
Assanda Mwenebatu told us that his party was a serious group of 15
ex-armed groups, more representative than the mere 7 groups that
comprised the AFPC.


6. (SBU) It is no surprise that PARECO-Hutu has opted to become a
political party, but there are a number of issues to monitor in this
context. PARECO-Hutu appears to be more interested in a political
alliance with the Tutsis, i.e. CNDP, than in joining with former
fellow PARECO members in other factions of that movement. This
would complement the kind of reconciliation with CNDP that some
within PARECO-Hutu reportedly seek.


7. (SBU) PARECO-Hutu claims that Governor Paluku is holding up
confirmation of its status as a political party until it is certain
that LaFontaine and his men from PARECO-Nande are given positions in
the FARDC (Note: The truth of this claim is in question. End note).
Additionally, the PARECO-Hutu party will officially oppose
splitting North Kivu because it knows it is a controversial point.
However, the principals all clearly favor a split.


8. (SBU) The obvious absentees from these four groups are the FRF
and PARECO-Nande. If the former finally enters integration, its
members are likely to form their own party - they will not want to
be associated with the North Kivu Rwandophones, nor any of the
Mai-Mai (and vice-versa). PARECO-Nande, by contrast, is likely to
be absorbed into the well-established Nande political structures.


9. (SBU) Comment: If a PARECO-Hutu/CNDP reconciliation does occur,
it will signal a significant step towards a Rwandophone agenda and
could precipitate a political response from the non-Rwandophones in
North Kivu, such as an alliance between the Mai-Mai parties and the
Nande. As for the various Mai-Mai groups, they have sensibly come
together. However, it is unclear how much electoral support even
these consolidated groups will have. At present their primary aim
is to ensure that some of their members are appointed to political
and administrative offices under the banner of their March 23
agreements with the GDRC. End comment.

GARVELINK