AMBASSADOR'S MEETING WITH VICTOR NGEZAYO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 000387 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/20/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV CG SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR'S MEETING WITH VICTOR NGEZAYO Classified By: Ambassador William J. Garvelink for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Ambassador met April 17 with influential North Kivu businessman Victor Ngezayo. Unsurprisingly, Ngezayo was highly critical of the GDRC, particularly its efforts to bring peace to the East, which he characterized as superficial. Ngezayo maintained that the new CNDP was a Rwandan concoction, with no grassroots support. Efforts to impose a "Rwandophone solution" on North Kivu would be a repeat of the disastrous RCD-Goma experiment. Ngezayo argued (quite implausibly) that ousted CNDP leader Laurent Nkunda should be re-inserted into the peace process and be given a prominent position in the FARDC. Ngezayo warned that the different regions of the DRC, which he divided into "Congo Occidentale," "Congo Orientale," Katanga, and the Kasais were culturally and economically independent from each other. On military reform, Ngezayo praised efforts by the U.S. and the international community to professionalize the FARDC. End summary. ¶2. (C) Ambassador, PolCouns, and Acting DATT met April 17 with Victor Ngezayo, prominent North Kivu businessman and (continuing) supporter of ousted CNDP rebel leader Laurent Nkunda. Ngezayo's daughter/advisor, Nyota, also attended the meeting. Ngezayo, who moved to Gisenyi soon after his brother Albert's assassination in March 2008 in Goma, said that the DRC is on a downward trajectory. He singled out the judiciary system as particularly ineffective, maintaining that it was under total "Katangan control," i.e., persons close to President Kabila. However, the Presidency also controlled all security, military, and even financial affairs. In Ngezayo's view, the only hope was to exert more pressure on the DRC's "young, emerging dictatorship," which is replacing the "young, emerging democracy." ¶3. (C) Ngezayo criticized the current peace process for not dealing with the root causes of the conflict, particular land tenure issues. The Obasanjo-led Nairobi process had been working towards an equitable settlement, but Kabila, according to Ngezayo, sabotaged the process. He added that the "new CNDP" consisted of individuals that "Rwanda brought in to run the group." Rwanda, in Ngezayo's view, had always maintained strong historical ties with Katanga Province, so it was not completely surprising that Kigali opted for a rapprochement with the GDRC, which was dominated by Katangans. Most importantly for the GoR would be to establish a Rwanda-friendly government in the Kivus, a process that was already afoot with the increasing influence of the Rwandophones in the region. Ngezayo criticized this dynamic as simply a return to the days of RCD-Goma's rule in North Kivu. As for the CNDP's move to transform itself into a political movement, Ngezayo maintained that the new CNDP leaders had no real constituency, rather it was a GDRC attempt to "do something with the remnants of the CNDP." ¶4. (C) Real peace lay in including ousted leader Laurent Nkunda, who still enjoyed the support of the North Kivu population, Ngezayo asserted. Nkunda should be offered some kind of command position in the East; only Nkunda can ensure successful integration of CNDP forces in the FARDC. Ngezayo argued for a significant reduction of FARDC troops across the DRC, but particularly in the East. The FARDC could, in Ngezayo's opinion, maintain security with only a single well-disciplined brigade in each of North Kivu's six territories. ¶5. (C) The DRC, in Ngezayo's opinion, needed to come to grips with its geographical realities. "Congo Orientale" was firmly oriented toward the East African space, especially commercially. Kinshasa had neglected social and economic development in most parts of the country, particularly in North Kivu, but also in Equateur and the Kasai Provinces. There were no longer any cultural and economic links between "Congo Occidentale," "Congo Orientale," Katanga, and the Kasais. (Comment: Ngezayo appeared to be arguing for the break-up of the Congo into separate entities, at the least into a confederation-type structure. End comment.) ¶6. (C) In the military sphere, Ngezayo said that the U.S. and other donors should put more pressure on the GDRC to professionalize the FARDC through military training, but also by encouraging classical military recruitment. Anyone who is unqualified should be discharged with the goal of creating a leaner, more competent FARDC. Ambassador pointed out that the USG was actively supporting the attempt to create a more disciplined, professionalized FARDC. Plans for the U.S. to KINSHASA 00000387 002 OF 002 train up a Light Infantry battalion were underway; such a battalion could become a model for further reforms. ¶7. (C) Comment: Victor Ngezayo is a well-known Tutsi businessman whose family has been attacked by anti-Tutsi elements. He is well respected by many international observers. His unfailing support of Nkunda belies an agenda that is not just pro-Tutsi but also favors "regime change" (i.e., overthrowing President Kabila) and, even more heretically, a dismemberment of the Democratic Republic of the Congo in an effort to ensure that the small Tutsi minority of North Kivu would be allowed to take over that province as Nkunda had called for. As evidenced by his discussion of the "Katanganization" of the DRC's courts, Ngezayo sees issues in ethnic terms. A year ago, he was an ardent Nkunda supporter and financial backer. He is now on the outside looking in at political developments in the Kivus as Nkunda and his supporters have been marginalized and there is little prospect of them re-emerging in the short term. Moreover, Ngezayo seems to have entered into a problematic relationship with Rwanda. Despite criticizing Rwanda, however, Ngezayo has considerable business interests in that country and chooses to live there much of the time. Some of Ngezayo's comments contain a grain of truth. He is not alone in his view that Katangans are increasing their influence within the GDRC, although the vast majority of cabinet members and the rank and file of the civil service are not from Katanga. His comments on support for the "new CNDP" and a "Rwandophonie"-led provincial government warrant close scrutiny. Finally, Ngezayo's views on a balkanization of the DRC are highly worrisome and, we fear, could lead to his arrest or even to threats on his life as such comments are commonly viewed as treasonous. End comment. GARVELINK