POSSIBLE VOLCANIC ERUPTION NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE SERIOUS

UNCLAS KINSHASA 000309

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: SENV EAID PREF CG
SUBJECT: POSSIBLE VOLCANIC ERUPTION NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE SERIOUS
EFFECT ON GOMA

REF: 06 KINSHASA 1840


1. (U) Summary. Scientists predict that Mount Nyamulagira, a
volcano 20 miles north of Goma, could erupt in the next few days.
Nyamulagira erupts every 2 years on average, and typically has
little effect on populated zones to the south. Airborne ash and
smoke may have a negative impact on air traffic in the region, and
sulfur dioxide could mix with water sources to contaminate drinking
water for some. Scientists also continue to monitor Mount
Nyiragongo, the more dangerous volcano 12 miles north of Goma that
erupted and destroyed thousands of homes in Goma in 2002.
Nyiragongo is not expected to pose any immediate threat due to the
relatively low levels of the crater's lava lake. End summary.


2. (U) Scientists at the Volcanological Observatory of Goma predict
Mount Nyamulagira, one of Africa's most active volcanoes, will erupt
in the next few days or weeks. Nyamulagira is located in Virunga
National Park in the North Kivu province, 20 miles north of Goma and
8 miles northwest of the Nyiragongo volcano. There are elevated
levels of seismic activity centered closer to Nyamulagira,
indicating an imminent eruption that would be its first since
November 27, 2006 (ref). Nyamulagira, a high-potassium basaltic
shield volcano, erupts approximately every two years (recently in
1996, 1998, 2000, 2001, 2004, and 2006),typically with little
effect on the higher-density populations of Goma and Gisenyi, Rwanda
to the south. Nyiragongo, a steeper and more dangerous volcano
whose lava flow destroyed thousands of homes in Goma during its last
eruption in January 2002, is not expected to erupt in the near
future because its pool of lava remains low at 600 meters below the
crater.


3. (U) The lead scientist for the Volcanological Observatory of
Goma, Dieudonne Wafula Mifundu, issued a full report of the recent
seismic activity on March 28. Seismic equipment at the observatory
registered intense activity January 23-27, which typically precedes
an eruption by 3-5 months. Wafulu says the recent sustained seismic
activity suggests an eruption is imminent at Nyamulagira. The
report says the lower levels of Nyiragongo's lava lake indicate no
immediate danger, but Wafulu says scientists will increase visits to
the crater to monitor any change. The UN Office for Project
Services (UNOPS) in Goma issued a communique on March 24 to concur
with the findings that an eruption is imminent. UNOPS said there is
no immediate danger to populated areas, but suggested the UN take
precautions with regard to potential disruptions in air traffic
caused by smoke and ash.


4. (U) Nyamulagira lava normally flows down the western slopes,
where a few local farmers cultivate land and graze livestock, or
north into uninhabited parts of Virunga National Park. The warnings
issued by the GDRC should prevent any potential loss of life or loss
of livestock. It is almost impossible for Nyamulagira lava to flow
into Goma, which lies uphill from the base of the shield volcano.
The likely consequences of an eventual Nyamulagira eruption include
airborne ash and sulfur dioxide, which may contaminate sources of
drinking water, and smoke that could negatively affect air traffic.


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