POSSIBLE VOLCANIC ERUPTION NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE SERIOUS

UNCLAS KINSHASA 000309 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: SENV EAID PREF CG SUBJECT: POSSIBLE VOLCANIC ERUPTION NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE SERIOUS EFFECT ON GOMA REF: 06 KINSHASA 1840 ¶1. (U) Summary. Scientists predict that Mount Nyamulagira, a volcano 20 miles north of Goma, could erupt in the next few days. Nyamulagira erupts every 2 years on average, and typically has little effect on populated zones to the south. Airborne ash and smoke may have a negative impact on air traffic in the region, and sulfur dioxide could mix with water sources to contaminate drinking water for some. Scientists also continue to monitor Mount Nyiragongo, the more dangerous volcano 12 miles north of Goma that erupted and destroyed thousands of homes in Goma in 2002. Nyiragongo is not expected to pose any immediate threat due to the relatively low levels of the crater's lava lake. End summary. ¶2. (U) Scientists at the Volcanological Observatory of Goma predict Mount Nyamulagira, one of Africa's most active volcanoes, will erupt in the next few days or weeks. Nyamulagira is located in Virunga National Park in the North Kivu province, 20 miles north of Goma and 8 miles northwest of the Nyiragongo volcano. There are elevated levels of seismic activity centered closer to Nyamulagira, indicating an imminent eruption that would be its first since November 27, 2006 (ref). Nyamulagira, a high-potassium basaltic shield volcano, erupts approximately every two years (recently in 1996, 1998, 2000, 2001, 2004, and 2006),typically with little effect on the higher-density populations of Goma and Gisenyi, Rwanda to the south. Nyiragongo, a steeper and more dangerous volcano whose lava flow destroyed thousands of homes in Goma during its last eruption in January 2002, is not expected to erupt in the near future because its pool of lava remains low at 600 meters below the crater. ¶3. (U) The lead scientist for the Volcanological Observatory of Goma, Dieudonne Wafula Mifundu, issued a full report of the recent seismic activity on March 28. Seismic equipment at the observatory registered intense activity January 23-27, which typically precedes an eruption by 3-5 months. Wafulu says the recent sustained seismic activity suggests an eruption is imminent at Nyamulagira. The report says the lower levels of Nyiragongo's lava lake indicate no immediate danger, but Wafulu says scientists will increase visits to the crater to monitor any change. The UN Office for Project Services (UNOPS) in Goma issued a communique on March 24 to concur with the findings that an eruption is imminent. UNOPS said there is no immediate danger to populated areas, but suggested the UN take precautions with regard to potential disruptions in air traffic caused by smoke and ash. ¶4. (U) Nyamulagira lava normally flows down the western slopes, where a few local farmers cultivate land and graze livestock, or north into uninhabited parts of Virunga National Park. The warnings issued by the GDRC should prevent any potential loss of life or loss of livestock. It is almost impossible for Nyamulagira lava to flow into Goma, which lies uphill from the base of the shield volcano. The likely consequences of an eventual Nyamulagira eruption include airborne ash and sulfur dioxide, which may contaminate sources of drinking water, and smoke that could negatively affect air traffic. GARVELINK