PREPARATIONS FOR LOCAL ELECTIONS MOVE FORWARD TENTATIVELY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 000308 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM CG SUBJECT: PREPARATIONS FOR LOCAL ELECTIONS MOVE FORWARD TENTATIVELY ¶1. (SBU) Summary: The DRC's Independent Election Commission (CEI) has announced that the GDRC will commit $31.3 million for the 2009 elections, an important step in leveraging crucial support from donors. Prime Minister Adolphe Muzito underscored the GDRC's commitment in a March 24 letter to UNSG Ban Ki-Moon. The CEI presented a calendar for updating voter registration, which should run from June through September. Significant technical challenges remain, including registration of candidates in 6,037 constituencies. Even in the best of circumstances, local elections will be held in late 2009 or early 2010, presenting financial, administrative, and political issues so close to the 2011 national elections. Despite the challenges and uncertainty ahead, the international community should support the DRC's nascent democratic development to cement recent progress on regional stabilization. End Summary. Malu Malu to the Rescue -------------- ¶2. (SBU) At a "make-or-break" meeting with the international community on March 23, the Chairman of the Independent Electoral Commission (CEI),Father Apollinaire Malu Malu, announced that the GDRC would commit $31.3 million for local elections, leaving the international community to fund the remaining $131.7 million (Note: MONUC and the GDRC recently revised downward the expected total cost to $163 million. This figure does not include an expected $80 million in logistical support from MONUC. End Note). Approximately $10 million of the GDRC contribution would be disbursed in the next few weeks, including $6.9 million in salary arrears. Prime Minister Adolphe Muzito underlined the GDRC commitment (and also gave SRSG Alan Doss some ammunition for a New York discussion of MONUC budgetary support for the elections) in a March 24 letter to UNSG Ban Ki-Moon. ¶3. (SBU) Equally important, Malu Malu announced that the updating of voter registration rolls would commence in June and last through September. On March 28, the CEI publicly released its schedule for updating voting lists: the process will officially start June 7 in the province of Kinshasa and Bas-Congo, then in the rest of the provinces on August 2. Malu Malu also said that all relevant legislation, including the Law on De-concentrated Entities, would be "ready in April." Malu Malu asked for donor support to refurbish existing and to build non-existing CEI infrastructure; he claimed the CEI did not have a permanent presence in five provinces: Katanga, Equateur, Kasai Occidental, Maniema, and Orientale. ¶4. (SBU) Donors generally reacted positively to the GDRC commitment, adding that this was a prerequisite to try to persuade capitals to provide financial assistance for the elections. The Swiss Ambassador noted that the DRC did not need "a Rolls Royce election," rather "a VW version" would suffice. He also admonished the GDRC not to perceive the elections as some kind of favor for the international community; this is for the DRC's own democratic development. EU Development Commissioner Louis Michel, during a March 30 press conference in Kinshasa, said the EU was ready to provide Euro 16 million in support for the elections (Note: USAID has a planned budget of $5.4 million to support the local elections, focusing on civic education and rapid response, i.e., helping to fill the gap for unexpected or greater than expected expenditures. End Note). Technical and Operational Challenges -------------- ¶5. (SBU) In a separate briefing for the diplomatic community, Carlos Valenzuela, Head of MONUC's Elections Division, outlined challenges - some technical, some political - that the GDRC, MONUC, and the international community still faced in preparing for local elections. ¶6. (SBU) Although the GDRC had put forward a plan to update the electoral lists, Valenzuela stressed that this would be a major undertaking. Also, after updating the voter rolls, the GDRC would have to begin the process of candidate registration in all 6,037 constituencies. Finally, polling and tabulation centers will have to be identified and made ready. Valenzuela estimated that there could be over 200,000 candidates, 53,000 polling stations, and 91 tabulation centers. ¶7. (SBU) Valenzuela pointed out that, there are direct elections for only two (District Council and Municipal Council) levels at which local elections are held. The others are indirectly elected, chosen by the District and Municipal Councilors. There is, according to Valenzuela, usually a 3-4 month gap between the direct election at the District and Municipal Council levels, and the indirect elections at the other levels. With local elections KINSHASA 00000308 002 OF 002 occurring late 2009 or even early 2010, this will push the final leg of the local elections process towards the beginning stages of preparations for the 2011 national election, Valenzuela noted. Additional Hurdles -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Valenzuela listed the following issues as additional hurdles to overcome: diminishing operational capacity of the Independent Electoral Commission (CEI),including non-payment of CEI salaries; financial constraints from MONUC, the GDRC, and the international community; instability in many areas of Eastern DRC; and, of course, the question of whether there exists sufficient political will to hold local elections. ¶9. (SBU) Time constraints could ultimately result in MONUC greatly reducing or even eliminating its budgetary support for local elections. MONUC, based on UNSCRs 1843 and 1856, was now even more focused on stabilizing the East, rather than providing country-wide electoral support. The more the local elections slip towards the 2011 national elections, which MONUC will not support financially, the less forthcoming MONUC financial support will be, predicted Valenzuela. Most importantly, SRSG Alan Doss must defend MONUC's local election budget in front of the UN's Advisory Committee on Administrative and Budgetary Questions (ACABQ) April 2-3. The GDRC's public commitment, plus the PM's letter to the UNSG, should greatly facilitate Doss' task. ¶10. (SBU) Comment: The jury is still out as to whether or not the GDRC will hold local elections in 2009 or early 2010. The events of the past week - the resolution of the Kabila-Kamerhe feud through a democratic procedure - have been relatively positive. Clearly, there are influential voices in the GDRC, first and foremost Malu Malu, who appear to advocate sticking to the electoral calendar. Nevertheless, persistent and considerable support from the international community will be imperative. It is important to "normalize" democratic practices in the DRC. In addition, supporting the process will help build capacity for the 2011 national elections. End Comment. GARVELINK