EASTERN DRC NOTES - JANUARY 12

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 000030 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS PHUM PREF KPKO CG SUBJECT: EASTERN DRC NOTES - JANUARY 12 ¶1. (U) The items contained in this report consist principally of spot information from various sources. This report is not exhaustive, nor can all the information contained therein be confirmed at this time. CNDP Internal Discord -------------- ¶2. (SBU) MONUC military officials recently discussed the Nkunda-Bosco split with members of the International Facilitation, including Goma PolOff. According to MONUC G-2 sources in Goma, most of the top CNDP commanders have joined with Bosco. (Note: Other sources claim the opposite, that Nkunda still has the loyalty of the majority of CNDP commanders. End note.) Bosco reportedly does not foresee a political or negotiating position for himself; he is apparently more comfortable in a military role. He has, however, not put forward an alternative candidate to head the CNDP. ¶3. (SBU) The G-2 and other officials noted to Goma PolOff that CNDP soldiers in the Masisi region have long been dissatisfied with Nkunda's leadership and are likely to support Bosco. Separately, other sources claim that General Numbi enticed or bribed Bosco to break with Nkunda, while others have speculated that Kigali now sees Nkunda as a liability following release of the Group of Experts report. ¶4. (SBU) According to Goma sources, when the visiting UK State Minister for Development raised the CNDP rift with President Kabila on January 8, Kabila allegedly responded that Bosco now appears to be more reasonable, while Nkunda is seen as a "hardliner." Kabila reportedly confirmed that Bosco has expressed a willingness to cooperate with the FARDC. Nairobi Talks -------------- ¶5. (SBU) A member of the GDRC team at Nairobi sent Embassy Kinshasa a text message noting that the talks are continuing, with the government pursuing a strategy of informal discussions with the CNDP negotiators to determine more precisely the basis of CNDP demands and how to move forward in a constructive manner. (Note: A more substantive readout has not yet been forthcoming, either because there is nothing more to report, or because of a need to keep the discussions close-hold. End note) ¶6. (SBU) According to MONUC sources, Special Envoy Olesegun Obasajno's two-hour meeting with Nkunda on January 9 focused on Nkunda's demand to include the presidents of the DRC Senate and National Assembly in the Nairobi negotiations. The two also discussed CNDP accusations that the FARDC had moved forward toward CNDP lines near Kibati. FDLR Issues -------------- ¶7. (SBU) The Rwandan and Congolese Defense Ministers held a series of meetings in Goma and Gisenyi in recent weeks, though the discussions have been closely held. Goma PolOff chaired a meeting of the Joint Monitoring Group Task Force on January 9, and requested a briefing on the discussions from the Rwandan and DRC representatives. Neither official was willing to provide details, however, stating only that MONUC and the international community would be informed of the plan for operations against the FDLR at an appropriate time. The International Facilitation team later speculated that Kinshasa and Kigali have come up with a plan to pressure the FDLR by using Bosco's forces, while Rwanda acts to isolate Nkunda. Security Issues -------------- ¶8. (SBU) General Lafontaine, commander of a Mai Mai group in the northern part of North Kivu, has reportedly established road blocks to collect "taxes" on travelers entering his militia's zone of control. ¶9. (SBU) Several Mai Mai Pascal troops were reportedly killed by CNDP forces during skirmishes on January 8 in Magenge. LRA: Operation Lightning Thunder -------------- KINSHASA 00000030 002 OF 002 ¶10. (SBU) According to MONUC, the LRA staged a second attack on the town of Bangadi, northwest of Dungu, on January 4. Most of the town's residents had already fled before the attack. UPDF has informed MONUC that 25 LRA troops have been killed in the current campaign. Humanitarian Issues in Orientale Province -------------- ¶11. (SBU) IDP estimates in Orientale Province vary. OCHA reported an IDP population of 62,243, including more than 13,500 in the Doruma area and the majority of the remainder in or around Dungu town. According to UNHCR, however, the December LRA attacks displaced more than 50,000 individuals, bringing the total IDP population since September to approximately 100,000. ¶12. (SBU) OCHA estimates that Tadu now hosts 3,500 individuals who fled Faradje following the December 25 LRA attack. According to UNICEF, more than half of the population of Faradje, approximately 12,500, has returned home. ¶13. (SBU) The USAID/DART Team Leader plans to travel with a humanitarian delegation to Kisangani to discuss with provincial authorities a "safe haven" strategy for delivering and distributing food and relief to displaced populations in Orientale Province. GARVELINK