KABILA RETURNS FROM EASTERN DRC ROAD TRIP

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 000284 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/26/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL CG SUBJECT: KABILA RETURNS FROM EASTERN DRC ROAD TRIP Classified By: Ambassador William Garvelink for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) . ¶1. (C) Summary: President Kabila returned March 22 to Kinshasa from a 26-day tour of the provinces, interrupted by at least one short return to the capital. The primary focus of the trip was on "eastern issues," including a meeting in Kasindi with Ugandan President Museveni before traveling on to North and South Kivu. In the Kivus the president expended considerable energy in an effort to rebuild his eroding popularity in that region, a critical factor in his 2006 election triumph. Kabila appears to have deliberately extended his stay outside of Kinshasa while his supporters engaged in a political battle to unseat National Assembly President Vital Kamerhe (septel). End Summary. Tepid Reception in Equateur Province -------------- ¶2. (SBU) President Kabila returned to Kinshasa March 24 after a three-week tour throughout the DRC, but primarily in the east. During the visit Kabila returned to Kinshasa briefly at least once. He began his tour on February 26 in Mbandaka, capital of Equateur Province and the home turf of former rival Jean-Pierre Bemba. This was Kabila's first visit to Mbandaka since he was elected in 2006. The main objective was to show solidarity with the residents who had suffered from flooding several months ago. Kabila's good intentions, however, may have been spurned. The newspaper "L'Observateur" reported that residents asked the president pointed questions about the arrest and detention of Jean-Pierre Bemba, arbitrary arrests of Equateur residents, and the lack of progress on achieving the government's five development priorities. Further East with Museveni -------------- ¶3. (C) On March 3 in Beni, Kabila officially launched construction of the Beni-Kisangani road. Kabila and Ugandan President Museveni met the following day at Kasindi to discuss bilateral relations and to assess progress on joint operations against the LRA. We understand the two presidents agreed at this meeting to the March 15 date to begin formal withdrawal of UPDF troops in Orientale Province. The two presidents also apparently agreed to allow a small number of Ugandan intelligence officers to remain in the DRC to support continued operations against the LRA. In the Kivus -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Following a brief stopover in Butembo, where he met with NGO's and discussed local issues with residents, Kabila continued on to Goma. He presided over a Council of Ministers meeting in the North Kivu capital on March 10 (Note: Kabila has made a point of occasionally holding cabinet meetings in the provinces to "bring the government closer to the people." End Note.). Addressing the Council of Ministers, North Kivu Governor Julien Paluku voiced a number of concerns, primarily related to the conflict in the region. ¶5. (SBU) On March 18, Kabila arrived in Bukavu, where his program appeared to be less focused. The governor declared a holiday on the day of the president's arrival. At several public events, Kabila made an appearance but did not speak. Kabila entrusted the details of his South Kivu visit to Agriculture Minster Basengezi Katintima, a native son. (Note: Some observers have speculated that, in the middle of a political battle with South Kivu native and President of the National Assembly Vital Kamerhe, Kabila preferred to keep a low profile. Following brief visits to Uvira and Fizi, Kabila returned to Kinshasa. End note). ¶6. (C) Comment: Clearly, the main purpose of Kabila's trip was to shore up sagging support in the east, where the popularity he enjoyed prior to his election in 2006 has declined considerably because campaign promises to end the war and bring about better economic prospects have not materialized. Also, the dispute with Kamerhe, a South Kivutian who enjoys high approval ratings in the region, has not helped Kabila. On March 9 Kabila spoke before a large audience in Goma, using to advantage his native, Tanzanian-accented Swahili. Many observers stated that he did a good job connecting with the crowd. (Note: Kabila, who did not learn French until adulthood, is at a disadvantage KINSHASA 00000284 002 OF 002 when speaking publicly in most of the Congo because he is uncomfortable in French and speaks no Lingala, the main language in the west of the country. End note.) We believe that Kabila did not intend to stay away from Kinshasa as long as he did but chose to remain in the east until the feud with Kamerhe was resolved. If true, this reinforces the view that Kabila avoids confrontation and tough decisions, leaving these kinds of issues to his subordinates. His extended absence, however, also had negative repercussions as the ship of state appeared to be captain-less at times and exacerbated an already difficult problem: unusually hard to reach even when he is in town, Kabila was completely incommunicado during his stay in the provinces. On the bright side, Kabila's lengthy sojourn in the provinces suggests he was confident no one would challenge his rule while away. End comment. GARVELINK