KABILA RETURNS FROM EASTERN DRC ROAD TRIP

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 000284

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/26/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL CG
SUBJECT: KABILA RETURNS FROM EASTERN DRC ROAD TRIP

Classified By: Ambassador William Garvelink for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
.


1. (C) Summary: President Kabila returned March 22 to
Kinshasa from a 26-day tour of the provinces, interrupted by
at least one short return to the capital. The primary focus
of the trip was on "eastern issues," including a meeting in
Kasindi with Ugandan President Museveni before traveling on
to North and South Kivu. In the Kivus the president expended
considerable energy in an effort to rebuild his eroding
popularity in that region, a critical factor in his 2006
election triumph. Kabila appears to have deliberately
extended his stay outside of Kinshasa while his supporters
engaged in a political battle to unseat National Assembly
President Vital Kamerhe (septel). End Summary.

Tepid Reception in Equateur Province
--------------


2. (SBU) President Kabila returned to Kinshasa March 24
after a three-week tour throughout the DRC, but primarily in
the east. During the visit Kabila returned to Kinshasa
briefly at least once. He began his tour on February 26 in
Mbandaka, capital of Equateur Province and the home turf of
former rival Jean-Pierre Bemba. This was Kabila's first
visit to Mbandaka since he was elected in 2006. The main
objective was to show solidarity with the residents who had
suffered from flooding several months ago. Kabila's good
intentions, however, may have been spurned. The newspaper
"L'Observateur" reported that residents asked the president
pointed questions about the arrest and detention of
Jean-Pierre Bemba, arbitrary arrests of Equateur residents,
and the lack of progress on achieving the government's five
development priorities.

Further East with Museveni
--------------


3. (C) On March 3 in Beni, Kabila officially launched
construction of the Beni-Kisangani road. Kabila and Ugandan
President Museveni met the following day at Kasindi to
discuss bilateral relations and to assess progress on joint
operations against the LRA. We understand the two presidents
agreed at this meeting to the March 15 date to begin formal
withdrawal of UPDF troops in Orientale Province. The two
presidents also apparently agreed to allow a small number of
Ugandan intelligence officers to remain in the DRC to support
continued operations against the LRA.

In the Kivus
--------------


4. (SBU) Following a brief stopover in Butembo, where he met
with NGO's and discussed local issues with residents, Kabila
continued on to Goma. He presided over a Council of
Ministers meeting in the North Kivu capital on March 10
(Note: Kabila has made a point of occasionally holding
cabinet meetings in the provinces to "bring the government
closer to the people." End Note.). Addressing the Council
of Ministers, North Kivu Governor Julien Paluku voiced a
number of concerns, primarily related to the conflict in the
region.


5. (SBU) On March 18, Kabila arrived in Bukavu, where his
program appeared to be less focused. The governor declared a
holiday on the day of the president's arrival. At several
public events, Kabila made an appearance but did not speak.
Kabila entrusted the details of his South Kivu visit to
Agriculture Minster Basengezi Katintima, a native son.
(Note: Some observers have speculated that, in the middle of
a political battle with South Kivu native and President of
the National Assembly Vital Kamerhe, Kabila preferred to keep
a low profile. Following brief visits to Uvira and Fizi,
Kabila returned to Kinshasa. End note).


6. (C) Comment: Clearly, the main purpose of Kabila's trip
was to shore up sagging support in the east, where the
popularity he enjoyed prior to his election in 2006 has
declined considerably because campaign promises to end the
war and bring about better economic prospects have not
materialized. Also, the dispute with Kamerhe, a South
Kivutian who enjoys high approval ratings in the region, has
not helped Kabila. On March 9 Kabila spoke before a large
audience in Goma, using to advantage his native,
Tanzanian-accented Swahili. Many observers stated that he
did a good job connecting with the crowd. (Note: Kabila, who
did not learn French until adulthood, is at a disadvantage

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when speaking publicly in most of the Congo because he is
uncomfortable in French and speaks no Lingala, the main
language in the west of the country. End note.) We believe
that Kabila did not intend to stay away from Kinshasa as long
as he did but chose to remain in the east until the feud with
Kamerhe was resolved. If true, this reinforces the view that
Kabila avoids confrontation and tough decisions, leaving
these kinds of issues to his subordinates. His extended
absence, however, also had negative repercussions as the ship
of state appeared to be captain-less at times and exacerbated
an already difficult problem: unusually hard to reach even
when he is in town, Kabila was completely incommunicado
during his stay in the provinces. On the bright side,
Kabila's lengthy sojourn in the provinces suggests he was
confident no one would challenge his rule while away. End
comment.
GARVELINK