EASTERN DRC NOTES - JANUARY 8

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 000023 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/08/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS PHUM PREF KPKO CG SUBJECT: EASTERN DRC NOTES - JANUARY 8 REF: KINSHASA 20 Classified By: Ambassador William J. Garvelink for reasons 1.4 (b) & (d ) ¶1. (U) The items contained in this report consist principally of spot information from various sources. This report is not exhaustive, nor can all the information contained therein be confirmed at this time. CNDP Internal Discord -------------- ¶2. (C) A senior MONUC political official told Embassy Kinshasa on January 7 that Nkunda and Bosco were supposed to meet the same day in Bwiza, which was notable because that appeared to be Bosco's turf. A rumor had been circulating that CNDP elements were going to arrest Bosco and then turn him over to MONUC, but apparently this is now not going to happen. The MONUC official speculated that this may be related in a general sense to Rwanda's desire to forestall a split within the CNDP. (Note: The official was careful to stress that it was not/not the case that Rwanda had specifically intervened to prevent Bosco's arrest. Nevertheless, he did make reference to some kind of Rwandan interest in stopping a CNDP split, as well as Kigali's desire that the international community stay out of this issue. End note.) Additionally, he also commented that Bosco appears frustrated with Nkunda's "national" agenda, as opposed to promoting a more narrow focus of protecting Tutsi interests. ¶3. (C) Former North Kivu governor Eugene Serufuli told PolCouns and Poloff in a January 8 meeting (septel) that Nkunda and Bosco will not meet. (Note: While he did not say so directly, Sefufuli implied that this was due to Bosco's intention to depose or split off from Nkunda, an action which Serufuli clearly thought to be in the interest of the Rwandophone community and the country at large. End note.) Rwanda, in Serufuli's view, also wants Nkunda gone. ¶4. (C) Comment: Current information remains too fragmentary to form an educated assessment as to whether this split will be resolved amicably, or if it would result in a battle between respective Nkunda and Bosco loyalists, or if we are facing the possibility of two different CNDPs. Indications point to Nkunda's desire to resolve this conflict quietly, which in itself could be an indication of his weakness vis a vis Bosco. End comment. Nairobi Talks -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Manya Moupondo, counselor to National Assembly President Kamerhe and member of the GDRC delegation to the Nairobi talks, sent Embassy Kinshasa (and other missions in Kinshasa) a text message on January 7 reporting that the mediation had posed three issues to the two delegations for discussion and resolution: mechanisms of a cease-fire; a comprehensive approach for a "global" agreement to be concluded; and the humanitarian crisis. FDLR Issues -------------- ¶6. (C) The same MONUC official cited above reported that MONUC still has not seen a copy of the DRC-Rwandan joint operational plan against the FDLR. Kabila and his circle are reluctant to share it, he said, due to their current, serious mistrust of MONUC; MONUC in the view of some senior GDRC officials, weakened the FARDC prior to the fighting in the fall with the CNDP by forcing it to withdraw from key areas as part of the disengagement plan. The MONUC official said that the real problem was that the FARDC voluntarily abandoned many strategic positions, which it had shared with MONUC, during the fighting. ¶7. (C) Rwanda, according to our MONUC contact, wants to begin anti-FDLR operations in early February; there are discussions of bringing in three Rwandan battalions and six FARDC battalions. He questioned if the GDRC would allow the Rwandans to bring in this many soldiers, and said that it was crucial that someone implore the Rwandans to tread lightly in planning these operations. He also expressed some frustration that MONUC is in the dark with respect to these plans. He noted that MONUC has information from FDLR sources that the group will, in response to any attack, begin guerrilla warfare in the GDRC, attacking the FARDC, RDF, KINSHASA 00000023 002 OF 002 MONUC, and civilians. ¶8. (C) He also said that there are unverified reports that the FDLR will hold a meeting this month at which the issue of whether or not to replace head commander Mudacumura will be discussed. There is allegedly a division between those sub-commanders supporting Mudacumura and those who want him replaced. North Kivu Security Incidents -------------- ¶9. (SBU) MONUC confirmed that the skirmish in Rugari (reftel) was in fact between the CNDP and FDLR, not between two factions of the CNDP as had been alleged by other sources. Separately, an NGO cited reports that the CNDP had executed some of its soldiers accused of committing atrocities against the civilian population in Kiwanja. (Comment: If true, this could relate to the current affair between Nkunda and Bosco, as the latter was apparently present in Kiwanja during the fighting and rumors have circulated that Nkunda, at the least displeased with the international focus on the atrocities, was contemplating a CNDP inquiry into this matter. End comment.) LRA Violence -------------- ¶10. (SBU) According to international media sources, and later reported by OCHA, the LRA attacked a ranger station in Nagero, Garamba Park on January 2, killing eight to ten people. Some accounts indicate that ten LRA soldiers also died in the ensuing firefight. On January 6, UNHCR reported that 3,500 individuals departed Nagero for Faradje following the attack. ¶11. (SBU) On January 4, the LRA attacked Napopo village, 12 kilometers northeast of Bangadi, killing an additional seven people and abducting an unknown number of others, according to OCHA. Some media reports claim that the population fled the village before the attack. OCHA also reported a third attack in Masombo, 60 kilometers north of Dungu. GARVELINK