EASTERN DRC NOTES - JANUARY 7

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 000020 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS PHUM PREF KPKO CG SUBJECT: EASTERN DRC NOTES - JANUARY 7 REF: KINSHASA 6 ¶1. (U) The items contained in this report consist principally of spot information from various sources. This report is not exhaustive, nor can all the information contained therein be confirmed at this time. CNDP Internal Discord -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Goma PolOff reported that CNDP spokesperson Bertrand Bisimwa told MONUC that the disagreement between Nkunda and Bosco was essentially "personal" and that the CNDP negotiating team in Nairobi is trying to put this internal dispute behind them. Notably, Bisimwa also claimed on January 6 that Bosco would approach BBC to "correct" his earlier statement of a takeover. (Note: Post is not aware that Bosco has made any such retraction; the latest press reports quote Nkunda and CNDP spokespersons as denying that a coup has taken place. End note) ¶3. (SBU) The DART team leader in Goma said that many in the international community there have decided that the move to oust Nkunda was a personal initiative on the part of Bosco, but that Nkunda is nevertheless in firm control of the CNDP and Bosco will pay the price for his action. A MONUC official told Embassy Kinshasa that the CNDP had released a communique stating that no changes had taken place within the organization, to include Bosco remaining for the time being as Chief of Staff and that an inquiry would be conducted into this affair, after which an official statement would be released to the international community. (Note: The official sent Post a copy of this latest "communique" which is actually labeled as being transmitted from the CNDP representation in France. End note) ¶4. (SBU) At the same time, the MONUC official said there appears to be a stalemate between the two factions and that it could be easier said than done to remove Bosco from a position of power, though it is unclear how much support within the CNDP he actually commands. ¶5. (SBU) Comment: Accurate assessments of the cause, outcome, and veracity of this rift within the CNDP remain elusive. It cannot be said for sure at this point who has the upper hand, Nkunda or Bosco. The fact that the CNDP has not released an official communique on this matter is in no way keeping with normal practice, and would suggest a real rift within the organization. ¶6. (SBU) Comment continued: There are a number of possible explanations for this affair, including the following two. One is that Bosco did in fact attempt a coup due to his rumored frustration with Nkunda's relative lack of aggression in defending Tutsi interests, or due to a simple desire to wield maximum power within the organization. Another is that Bosco was responding to a move by Nkunda to sideline him, in an attempt to curry additional favor with the international community. End comment Operation Lightning Thunder -------------- ¶7. (SBU) MONUC reported that the LRA launched an attack against the village of "Manjere" (as heard) on January 1, resulting in the deaths of seven civilians. There was also an attack on the village of Sambia, between Faradje and Watsa, though the number of casualties is unknown. MONUC believes these two raids were for the purpose of securing food supplies. ¶8. (SBU) The UPDF launched an attack on the LRA base camp "Swahili" on January 5, allegedly killing six LRA combatants. The UPDF believes that Kony is still in Garamba park, and that the LRA consists of 600 combatants and 200 dependents. (Note: Goma PolOff has heard significantly higher estimates from other sources. End note) Security Situation in the Kivus -------------- ¶9. (SBU) MONUC reported that a skirmish took place near Rugari on January 6, though there is controversy as to whether it took place between the CNDP and FDLR or between the two CNDP factions that have allegedly formed as a result of the latest discord. Separately, it was reported that PARECO forces had looted houses in Kibirizi and that the FDLR had prevented a UN team from carrying out road repairs. ¶10. (SBU) University students burned tires and blocked roads in Goma on January 6, demanding they be paid their scholarships, and UN security sources warned that additional demonstrations could take KINSHASA 00000020 002 OF 002 place today. ¶11. (SBU) MONUC reported that the CNDP abducted a woman in "Lowe" (as heard) but that MONUC was able to secure her release; the CNDP has also handed over a number of child soldiers to MONUC. Additionally, the CNDP continues to replace village chiefs who are considered uncooperative (reftel),which is causing discomfort among local residents. A recent movement of people to the Kihondo IDP camp is connected to this phenomenon. ¶12. (SBU) MONUC has deployed a second Bangladeshi company to Ishasha (reftel). The reasons for this movement relate to the protection of refugees, stemming arms flow across the border with Uganda, and responding to recent CNDP claims that MONUC is doing nothing to prevent the FARDC from occupying territory from which it has withdrawn. Humanitarian/Political Updates -------------- ¶13. (SBU) Goma PolOff and press reports note that UK International Development Secretary Gordon Alexander is in Goma today. The UK will reportedly donate 64 million pounds this year in response to the humanitarian crisis. GARVELINK