EASTERN DRC NOTES - JANUARY 6

UNCLAS KINSHASA 000012 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS PHUM PREF KPKO CG SUBJECT: EASTERN DRC NOTES - JANUARY 6 ¶1. (U) The items contained in this report consist principally of spot information from various sources. This report is not exhaustive, nor can all the information contained therein be confirmed at this time. Nkunda Ousted? -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Goma PolOff reported that CNDP Spokesperson Bertrand Bisimwa had contacted an intermediary to declare that, despite "some problems," Nkunda was still firmly in charge, contrary to press reports that CNDP Chief of Staff Bosco Ntaganda had taken over the leadership. There are numerous rumors circulating in Goma to explain the apparent discord within the CNDP, including a split between an eastern and western wing of the group (with the western wing resenting the ascendancy of the "Rutshuru wing"); and the possibility that some Tutsis in the movement are discontent with Nkunda's efforts to increasingly include more non-Tutsis in the CNDP. ¶3. (SBU) A MONUC official told Embassy Kinshasa that, according to his field sources, Bosco had indeed taken control of the CNDP; subsequently, he notified post that Nkunda had apparently emerged from a meeting in Rutshuru to announce his intention to retake control from Bosco. Our MONUC source also listed the alleged discontent within some parts of the group regarding Nkunda's inclusion of non-Tutsis, as well as Bosco's frustration that Nkunda had refrained from attacking Goma in the fall, as possible reasons for the CNDP dispute. ¶4. (SBU) Comment: Information on Nkunda's ouster/non-ouster has so far been fragmentary, and at times, contradictory. It is therefore difficult to ascertain rather Nkunda or Bosco controls the CNDP. However, the fact that Bosco directly announced his takeover to the international press, coupled with the probable outlines of internal CNDP discord, means that such a coup cannot be discounted. The fact that there has been no written statement released from the CNDP denying the reports is also somewhat telling, given the group's active and competent PR apparatus. Another possibility is that this is an elaborate deception operation, on the eve of the resumption of the Nairobi talks, designed to extract concessions from an international community and a GDRC fearful of the emergence of an even more radical leadership of the CNDP. Finally, as the BBC story implied, this may be the beginnings of two rival CNDP forces. End Comment. North Kivu Security Incidents -------------- ¶5. (SBU) OCHA reports increased insecurity at the Kanyatsi IDP camp in the Kirolirwe area of Masisi Territory due to PARECO incursions into the camp. IDPs continue to fear retaliation by the CNDP upon returning to their home villages. ¶6. (SBU) OCHA also reported that protection continues to deteriorate in Kiwanja, Rutshuru Territory. MONUC has identified the Kiwanja-Rwindi, Kiwanja-Vitshumbi, and Kiwanja-Ishasa axes as highly insecure due to significant militia presence. GARVELINK