EQUATEUR ELECTIONS: THE END OF THE OPPOSITION?

UNCLAS KINSHASA 001025 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV KDEM PINS CG SUBJECT: EQUATEUR ELECTIONS: THE END OF THE OPPOSITION? REF: KINSHASA 652 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: The interim governor, Jean-Claude Baende, won a special gubernatorial election in Equateur Province. Baende is an independent with close ties to President Kabila's AMP. As the AMP now controls all 11 provinces, it is well-situated to crush a feckless opposition in (unlikely) 2010 local elections and 2011 national elections. End Summary. Friday the 13th: Scary for the Opposition -------------- ¶2. (U) Provincial parliamentarians held a special gubernatorial election in Equateur Province on November 13 (Note: Provincial governors are elected by their respective unicameral provincial parliaments. End note). Independent Jean-Claude Baende, who has close ties to President Kabila's coalition (AMP) won a clear majority with 60 of the 108 votes cast. In second place was MLC candidate Jean-Lucien Busa. Busa was the beneficiary of a late endorsement by former candidate Jose Engbanda, but polled only 28 votes. Gabriel Bolenge received the remaining 20 votes. The fourth candidate, Michel Bongongo, obtained no votes. ¶3. (U) Baende's running mate Francois Mokako won the vice-governorship. Baende was the previous vice-governor who led the province since the former governor, Jose Makila (MLC),failed a motion of no-confidence in January 2009 (reftel). ¶4. (U) Candidates campaigned primarily on economic themes pledging to meet the challenges of regional poverty with enhanced agricultural production, good governance, and proper management of provincial allocations from national budgets. Civil society actively participated in campaigning including calls by NGOs such as the Roman Catholic Commission for Justice and Peace which called for "a visionary governor concerned with development and human rights." Promises, Bribes, and Peace -------------- ¶5. (U) In his victory speech, Baende, elected with 55% of the vote, asked for Equateurians to "join hands in reconciliation and peace" as he sought to respect the rights of all, promote equal representation of provincial districts, and to work on the "5 Chantiers" outlined by President Kabila. ¶6. (U) Provincial MP Constant Mbiyo, head of the MLC caucus in the Equateur Assembly, claimed the AMP ensured Baende's victory by paying bribes totaling $10,000 to the electors. ¶7. (U) National Deputy Jean-Claude Vuemba (MLC) called for a national congress to reestablish the opposition, which, he claimed, is suffering from both a lack of strategic leadership and recent tactical failures. The opposition is leaderless with the "political death" of MLC stalwart Jean-Pierre Bemba and the long political absence for health reasons of Etienne Tshisekedi of the UDPS. Mounting political failures include the aborted no-confidence vote against the Prime Minister, arduous budget negotiations, and losses in Bas-Congo assembly and Equateur gubernatorial elections. Vuemba, a representative from Kasangulu, hopes to create a broad opposition which can speak with a single voice and return to power democratically in the upcoming elections of 2010 (local) and 2011 (national). ¶8. (SBU) Comment. Although this was only a provincial election, there were national implications. Equateur was the only province without an AMP governor. While Baende is nominally independent, it is clear he was the AMP's preferred candidate. The MLC, under Makila, self-destructed (reftel), Qcandidate. The MLC, under Makila, self-destructed (reftel), and thus handed Equateur--the home province of Mobutu and Bemba--to Kabila on a silver platter. ¶9. (SBU) A related question with national implications is how the opposition will regroup for the 2011 national elections. All of the major opposition parties (MLC, UDPS, RCD) are beset with internal disputes. Unless the opposition agrees to unite, at least to support a sole opposition party, the AMP will continue to benefit from a divide-and-rule policy. End Comment. GARVELINK