JAMAICA: RULING PARTY BLAMES OPPOSITION FOR CURRENT FISCAL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 KINGSTON 000992 SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR WHA/CAR (JMACK-WILSON) (RALVARADO) (VDEPIRRO) (WSMITH) WHA/EPSC (MROONEY) (FCORNEILLE) EEB/IFD/OMA WHA/PPC (JGONZALEZ) INR/RES (RWARNER) INR/I (SMCCORMICK) SANTO DOMINGO FOR FCS AND FAS TREASURY FOR ERIN NEPHEW EXPORT IMPORT BANK FOR ANNETTE MARESH AMEMBASSY BRIDGETOWN PASS TO AMEMBASSY GRENADA E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PINR ASEC ECON EFIN CJAN CVIS KCOR KCRM IMF JM XL SUBJECT: JAMAICA: RULING PARTY BLAMES OPPOSITION FOR CURRENT FISCAL TRAVAILS, BUT OFFERS LITTLE PRESCRIPTION REF: KINGSTON 964; KINGSTON 697; KINGSTON 800; KINGSTON 978 KINGSTON 709; KINGSTON 737; KINGSTON 924; KINGSTON 712 KINGSTON 00000992 001.2 OF 004 Summary: -------------- ¶1. (U) At its scaled back November 22 annual party conference, an embattled Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) defended its two years in office and attributed much of the nation's economic and fiscal travails to the "inheritance" left by the opposition People's National Party (PNP). In a somber and serious tone, at odds with the fiery political rhetoric of his fellow Labourites, Prime Minister (PM) Bruce Golding insisted that the Government of Jamaica (GOJ) would not default on its public debts, although he offered few specifics and no announcements of major breakthroughs in negotiations with the International Monetary Fund or in the continuing Christopher Coke extradition request. End Summary. "Cleaning Up The Messes" -------------- ¶2. (U) Meeting at Kingston's National Arena, the same venue the PNP used for its boisterous annual conference in September, the JLP rally was a much more subdued and orderly affair, although both were marked by fiery religious exhortations and loud snippets of dance hall music. The party faithful, most dressed in JLP green, were corralled behind barricades as party leaders drove home in a series of short speeches what seemed to be the JLP's implicit theme: it's been a difficult two years since the 2007 general elections, but the JLP is not to blame. Instead, Jamaica's perilous economic and social problems (Ref A) were attributed to the unforeseen global economic recession and to the PNP's eighteen prior years in office. In fact, JLP General Secretary Karl Samuda maintained that much of the GOJ's efforts over the past two years had been directed toward "cleaning up the messes" left by the PNP and putting "Jamaica on a path of sustainable development for the 
first time in its history." Characterizing the PNP as "steeped in corruption" and having squandered opportunities to nurture economic growth during its tenure, Samuda lauded Golding and the JLP for their "competence," "determination," and "good leadership." ¶3. (U) The public session began with an invocation by Tivoli Gardens' Pastor Patricia Hall in which she exhorted government ministers to "go into your ministries and pick out the demons because there are some people that are trying to bring down your ministry," implying that PNP partisans in the civil service were thwarting JLP policies (NOTE: Tivoli Gardens is a garrison community run by Christopher Coke, the subject of a contentious U.S. extradition request. Ref B. End Note). Dr. Kenneth Baugh, Foreign Minister and Deputy Prime Minister, hailed the GOJ's good relations with China, India, and the European Union, conspicuously omitting any mention of the U.S., while Minister of Energy James Robertson hailed the JLP's implementation of a comprehensive energy strategy to move the nation from reliance on crude oil in favor of a more diversified energy mix including liquefied natural gas (LNG). KINGSTON 00000992 002.2 OF 004 ¶4. (U) Maintaining that the JLP had "done more in two years than the PNP did in 18," Delano Seiveright, the newly-elected president of the JLP's Generation 2000 (G2K) youth organization, rattled off a number of campaign promises on which the JLP had delivered: the removal of public school tuition fees, abolition of user fees in public hospitals, expansion of agricultural output, plans to revitalize downtown Kingston, and the reestablishment of borrowing relationships with multilateral organizations. Accusing the PNP of having "no moral authority," Seiveright also highlighted the JLP's efforts at countering the "corruption and scandal" of the opposition. Excoriating the media as "apologists for the PNP," Finance Minister Audley Shaw attacked the PNP's "mismanagement and indiscretions" and, referring to his PNP predecessor by name, bemoaned the fact that "sixty percent of every tax dollar [is spent] to service Omar Davies' legacy." Referring to a recent article in The Economist that questioned whether Jamaica's problems were "unfixable," Shaw delivered a fiery diatribe against the leaders of the PNP, alleging that "Peter Bunting can't fix it, Peter Phillips can't fix it, and Sister P (PNP President Portia Simpson Miller),you can't fix it either!" Reverting to Jamaican patois, Shaw concluded "tell dem seh, dey out of fashion! Dey gone out of style!" "It's Time For A Reality Check" -------------- ¶5. (SBU) PM Golding entered the hall to tremendous fanfare, but the excitement and energy seemed to quickly dissipate as he delivered a lackluster speech with little of the partisan enthusiasm and flourishes of earlier speakers. Unlike those who had preceded him to the podium, Golding largely avoided incendiary political rhetoric and made no direct references to the PNP at all, claiming instead to "have come not to look back, not to cast blame...[not to] quarrel with those who might be quarrelsome." Making use of a number of metaphors - "we are caught in the middle of the desert," "[the IMF] is like a doctor who examines, diagnoses and prescribes treatment" - Golding harkened back to his 2007 general election pledge that he would be Jamaica's "driver," adding that now "it is not just a new driver that [is]needed...the old bus needs major repairs." However, as he has done on a number of occasions over the past year, Golding largely stuck to generalities and offered few details as to how the GOJ would address the nation's fiscal problems (Ref C). ¶6. (U) Implying that the PNP had brought on the current economic crisis by "[f]or years...spending more than we earn, putting aside nothing for the rainy day" while affirming that the global recession's "effects on our economy and our people were devastating," Golding nevertheless maintained that Jamaica was not "living beyond our means," insisting that "we need to spend more - not less - on our schools, hospitals and roads." Instead, the PM declared that Jamaica's economic problems lay in the fact that "we are not doing enough to earn enough" and that "the little money that we have is not being spent as wisely as it should." Given that over 87 percent of the GOJ's USD 6.5 billion budget is targeted toward public sector salaries, government operations, and debt servicing, the remaining USD 811 million is insufficient to "put medicine and supplies in our hospitals, build more schools, provide lunch for our school children, put gas in the police vehicles, fix our roads and run pipes to bring water to rural households." As a result of the global recession, Golding noted that Jamaica had lost almost USD 1.5 billion in foreign exchange flows due to declining remittance payments (Ref D),a reduction in foreign direct investments, and the collapse of the bauxite industry due to falling international demand. KINGSTON 00000992 003.2 OF 004 ¶7. (U) Faced with some of the highest interest rates and one of the highest debt ratios in the world, Golding outlined a four-pronged fiscal program including: a. Fiscal remedies to balance the GOJ budget, including reductions in public sector bureaucracy (NOTE: Golding proposed similar cuts in an after-midnight address to Parliament in September and has appointed a Public Sector Transformation Unit to develop proposals for consideration. Ref E. End Note),although the PM rejected cuts for schools, police, and hospitals; b. a medium-term economic program to revitalize key sectors of the economy, including agriculture, energy, bauxite, and small businesses; c. policy measures, including tax reform and anti-corruption efforts, and; d. debt management, including a much-anticipated IMF agreement (REF F) that Golding hinted would entail reductions in interest rate payments, which currently account for ten percent of GDP, as well as a reorientation of the nation's debt burden from domestic and international capital markets to multilateral agencies in order to reduce borrowing costs and free up private sector credit. However, the PM insisted that "holders of government bonds are assured that our contractual obligations to them remain inviolable." Announcing that "there is no alternative to borrowing from the IMF," Golding seemed to telegraph that the multilateral would likely impose onerous fiscal policies on the GOJ, but insisted that "the IMF is not forcing anything on us" and that "it is we who must decide to take that treatment." ¶8. (SBU) Golding made no mention of the standoff between the U.S. and the GOJ over the U.S. extradition request for Christopher Coke, a politically-connected don who controls the Tivoli Gardens garrison community in Golding's West Kingston constituency (Ref G). Golding warned that "[i]t matters not if you are a Labourite, it matters not how hard you worked to help us to win the election. If any of you is caught in any corrupt activity, expect the full force of the law and do not look to me or the government for any sympathy or protection." (NOTE: It is not clear if Golding's statement should be taken ironically or as a signal of the GOJ's intentions regarding the Coke extradition request. End Note). ¶9. (SBU) Delano Seiveright told Emboff that the PM had made a conscious choice in his speech to "dial back" the political rhetoric due to the sensitive nature of the GOJ's IMF and Coke extradition deliberations, but agreed that the result was a lackluster and uninspiring presentation that sapped the auditorium of much of the energy and enthusiasm that had been built up by the previous speakers. More optimistically, Member of Parliament Andrew Gallimore told Emboff that the conference had been successful in demonstrating that the JLP remained united behind PM Golding's leadership despite the myriad difficulties facing Jamaica. Analysis: KINGSTON 00000992 004.2 OF 004 -------------- ¶10. (SBU) At its annual conference, the JLP was obviously at pains to present itself as united, organized, and at peace, in contrast with the PNP which has been riven by internal divisions, strategic missteps, and leadership challenges since its 2007 general election defeat (NOTE: At its September conference, the PNP made an effort to present itself as unified and having settled its leadership issues, although whether this is in fact the case remains to be seen. Ref H. End Note). Golding devoted little attention to Jamaica's spiraling crime wave, and no mention was made of the Coke extradition request that has drawn considerable media attention in recent months. Finally, continuing what has become a pattern over the past year, Golding missed an opportunity to detail before a friendly audience the "painful" corrections to address the nation's economic problems that he has been warning of for months, promising only that the GOJ would "very shortly be outlining in Parliament the terms of the IMF agreement" as well as the specifics of the economic and fiscal programs he'd proposed. Golding's image in Jamaica's financial and political circles is increasingly one of uncertainty and indecisiveness; his speech before his party faithful did little to challenge that assessment. End Analysis. Parnell