JAMAICA: KEY OPPOSITION FIGURE DESCRIBES PRIME

C O N F I D E N T I A L KINGSTON 000676 SIPDIS STATE FOR WHA/CAR (JMACK-WILSON) (BALVARADO) (VDEPIRRO) (WSMITH) L/LEI (CHOLLAND) (AKLUESNER) INR/IAA (GBOHIGAN) INR/RES (RWARNER) JUSTICE FOR OIA (PPETTY) TREASURY FOR ERIN NEPHEW PASS TO CENTRAL AMERICAN CARIBBEAN BASIN COLLECTIVE E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/03/2019 TAGS: PREL CJAN CVIS PGOV PINR ASEC SNAR SOCI KCOR KCRM, JM, XL, BR SUBJECT: JAMAICA: KEY OPPOSITION FIGURE DESCRIBES PRIME MINISTER AS "BETWEEN A ROCK AND A HARD PLACE" ON COKE EXTRADITION, OPTIMISTIC ON ECONOMIC PROSPECTS REF: A. A. STATE 8507 ¶B. B. KINGSTON 655 ¶C. C. KINGSTON 666 ¶D. D. KINGSTON 631 ¶E. E. KINGSTON 613 ¶F. F. KINGSTON 634 Classified By: CDA ISIAH L. PARNELL, Reasons 1.5 (B) AND (D) Summary: ¶1. (C) Peter Bunting, Member of Parliament and the opposition People's National Party (PNP) Spokesperson on National Security, praised the USG's August 30 request that Christopher "Dudus" Coke be extradited to stand trial on federal drug charges. Describing Prime Minister (PM) Golding's position as "between a rock and a hard place," Bunting affirmed the PNP's "unequivocal" support for Coke's extradition. Nevertheless, Bunting was critical of Golding's handling of the affair and intimated that some within the Government of Jamaica (GOJ) might prefer that Coke be assassinated rather than extradited to stand trial. End Summary. Organized Crime "Corrosive" To Jamaican Democracy -------------- ¶2. (C) In a September 2 introductory meeting with Embassy Kingston's new CDA, accompanied by EmbOff, Bunting described the nexus between organized crime and political power, as evidenced in the Coke extradition request, as the most pressing political problem facing Jamaica. According to Bunting, the prevalence and pervasiveness of organized crime in Jamaica threatens democracy and corrupts law enforcement. Describing organized crime's influence on Jamaican society as "corrosive," Bunting related how the gangland-style murders of five of his campaign workers prior to the 2007 general election depressed voter turnout in his constituency and nearly cost him his seat in Parliament. Although Bunting acknowledged that the PNP had its own ties to organized crime figures, he described the relationship between Coke and the governing Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) as much closer and more insidious. "Dudus" Controversy Grips Jamaica -------------- ¶3. (C) Coke, the notorious "don" and leader of the "Shower Posse" that controls the violent West Kingston garrison community of Tivoli Gardens, has been indicted in the U.S. Southern District in New York on charges of conspiracy to traffic cocaine, marijuana and firearms (Reftel A). Although the diplomatic note requesting Coke's extradition was submitted to the Government of Jamaica (GOJ) on August 26, the GOJ has yet to issue a formal response despite CDA's request in a meeting with Foreign Minister Kenneth Baugh (Reftel B). In fact, in a separate meeting between EmbOff and the JLP Mayor of Kingston and St. Andrew, Councillor Desmond Anthony McKenzie warned of "severe repercussions" and "collateral damage" if the request was not rescinded (Reftel C). While the extradition request has been the subject of considerable media coverage and public debate, the GOJ has yet to issue a formal response to the request and it remains "under review" by Solicitor General Douglas Leys. Symbiotic Relationships Between PNP, JLP, and Garrisons -------------- -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Historically the PNP and the JLP have maintained quid pro quo relationships with the organized crime syndicates that control inner-city garrisons in Kingston, Spanish Town, and Montego Bay. In return for ceding de facto political control of the garrisons, political parties count on the "dons" turning out the vote on election day while simultaneously using threats and violence to intimidate and terrorize opposition supporters. With no effective civil authority within the garrisons, "dons" cement their rule by distributing cash, clothing, and school supplies to poor garrison residents ) financed by drug profits ) while maintaining some degree of order in the lawless communities. ¶5. (C) As a result, many Jamaicans have rallied to Coke's defense, describing him as a community leader and Samaritan while deriding Golding and the GOJ for jeopardizing Jamaica's sovereignty by acceding to U.S. pressure. Nevertheless, Bunting claimed that there is a silent majority in Jamaica that would like to see Coke and his ilk extradited and imprisoned, but are afraid to say so publicly. Dead Men Tell No Tales -------------- ¶6. (C) Bunting was critical of Golding's handling of the Coke affair, noting that the GOJ should have had Coke arrested and turned over to U.S. authorities as soon as they learned of the extradition request so as to minimize the political fallout. By equivocating, the GOJ appears indecisive and has allowed Coke the opportunity to leave the tonier neighborhoods of north Kingston where he owns at least ONE home ) and where he would be more easily taken into custody ) and instead to sequester himself in the Tivoli Gardens garrison community where the GOJ has no effective law enforcement presence. Although Bunting believes that the Jamaica Constabulary Force (JCF) could extricate Coke from Tivoli Gardens with U.S. law enforcement assistance and technological expertise, doing so might entail civilian casualties and result in widespread civil unrest. ¶7. (C) Bunting described the Coke affair as the greatest political challenge of the JLP's two years in power, while Golding's inaction indicated a lack of leadership and a "failure of political will." Although apparently not close to Coke personally, Golding is the Minister of Parliament (MP) representing the West Kingston constituency in which Tivoli Gardens is located. A Coke arrest and extradition would certainly have electoral repercussions within the constituency ) if the West Kingston and other garrison communities allied with the JLP were to stay away from the polls on election day or even throw their support to the PNP, the JLP's prospects for the next general election, currently scheduled for 2012, might dim considerably. (NOTE: Bunting noted that the alliances between political parties and garrison crime syndicates are purely utilitarian, not ideological or based on political convictions. END NOTE) ¶8. (C) More immediately, Golding's position as the leader of the JLP might be threatened by a Coke extradition as well. Bunting told EmbOff that, if arrested, Coke has threatened to "squeal" on those within the JLP and the GOJ with ties to organized crime. If true, Golding is certainly under considerable pressure from within the JLP to find some pretense on which to refuse the U.S.'s extradition request. ¶9. (C) In fact, Bunting speculated openly that the seemingly intractable political problem might be solved for everyone through Coke's untimely death. Coke surely suspects as much ) his own father and predecessor as leader of the "Shower Posse," "Jim Brown", died under mysterious circumstances while in police custody in Kingston in 1992. Bauxite, Economic Opportunities, Electoral Prospects -------------- -------------- ¶10. (SBU) Despite the recent news that the St. Ann Bauxite Partners plant might soon resume full production after having shut down for several months due to weak market demand, Bunting was skeptical as to whether Jamaica's bauxite industry would ever fully recover from the current economic downturn. Instead, Bunting believes that Jamaica's economic future lies in creative- and knowledge-based industries such as tourism, HEALTH care, and entertainment. Notwithstanding Jamaica's recent economic and social travails, Bunting described himself as an optimist in regard to Jamaica's economic prospects, noting that Jamaica has sound infrastructure and enjoys infant mortality rates and life spans comparable to those of the developed world. ¶11. (C) Although critical of the JLP's handling of the current economic crisis and the caliber of some GOJ ministers ) he referred openly to Finance Minister Audley Shaw as "incompetent" ) Bunting nevertheless was doubtful that the PNP could regain power were Golding to call a snap election in the next several months. While still popular with the business community, Bunting believes that the JLP is steadily losing credibility with the general public and that it would be preferable for the PNP to wait until the next general election, which must be held before September 2012. Bunting's Conclusion and Analysis -------------- ¶12. (C) Jamaica's political landscape has clearly been roiled by the Coke extradition request, and the JLP-led government appears unable or unwilling to address the issue directly. Confronted by mounting labor unrest (Reftel D),a crushing debt burden (Reftel E),and an economy in the doldrums (Reftel F),Golding could have done without an extradition crisis and he has few attractive options from which to choose. To refuse the extradition request and allow Coke to remain free would make a laughingstock of the JLP's anti-crime platform, jeopardize U.S. development and law enforcement assistance programs, and allow Golding's opponents to portray him as cowardly and unwilling to stand up to the criminal elements that support the JLP. ¶13. (C) On the other hand, if Golding were to acquiesce to the extradition request and attempt to take Coke into custody, ONE of two outcomes might result. A JCF assault of Tivoli Gardens in which Coke were taken into custody might result in widespread destruction, civilian casualties, and civil unrest that could spread throughout Kingston or even across the island, while Coke's subsequent trial could implicate and embarrass a number of high-ranking JLP officials. Alternately, a JCF operation that failed to capture Coke would allow the JLP's rivals to portray Golding's government as incompetent and ineffective. Either outcome would raise questions within the electorate as to the JLP's competence and judgment. ¶14. (C) Nevertheless, in the face of U.S. insistence that the GOJ live up to its treaty obligations, the Coke affair offers Golding an opportunity to demonstrate resolute leadership by standing up to the criminal syndicates that have for decades dominated Jamaican politics, compromised political parties, corrupted law enforcement, and fomented the island's spiraling murder and crime rates. How Golding will respond to that opportunity remains unclear. PARNELL