JAMAICA: RUMBLINGS OF KEY PERSONNEL CHANGES IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L KINGSTON 000601 SIPDIS STATE FOR WHA/CAR (JMACK-WILSON) (VDEPIRRO) (WSMITH) WHA/EPSC (MROONEY)(FCORNEILLE) (AWONG) WHA/IFD/OMA WHA/PPC (JGONZALEZ) INR/RES (RWARNER) INR/I (SMCCORMICK) SANTO DOMINGO FOR FCS AND FAS TREASURY FOR ERIN NEPHEW AND LUYEN TRAN E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/12/2039 TAGS: ECON ETRAD EFIN ENRG PINR PREL PGOV SOCI IADB IBRD, IMF, TRYS, KRCM, JM, XL SUBJECT: JAMAICA: RUMBLINGS OF KEY PERSONNEL CHANGES IN JLP-LED GOVERNMENT REF: A. 08 KINGSTON 402 ¶B. KINGSTON 294 ¶C. KINGSTON 427 ¶D. KINGSTON 245 ¶E. KINGSTON 223 Classified By: CDA Lloyd Moss for reasons 1.4 (b and d) SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS -------------- ¶1. (C) The Jamaican Labour Party (JLP)-led government is undergoing a second major reshuffle of portfolios for the year. Key Minister of Finance advisors Don Wehby and Dennis Chung have returned to the private sector. Chris Zacca, President of the Private Sector Organization of Jamaica (PSOJ),is a likely Senate candidate to replace Wehby, and there are indications he will be appointed to the Office of the Prime Minister. Keith Collister, a respected economist and journalist, is being touted as a possible addition to the Ministry of Finance and Public Service (MFPS). Both Collister and Zacca currently work for Jamaican business mogul Gordon Butch Stewart; thus the transfers would enhance Stewart,s already robust leverage within the GOJ. Financial Secretary Sharon Crooks, who once had the full backing of MFPS Minister Audley Shaw, was asked to resign last week after serving 16 months. She will be replaced by Wesley Hughes, Director General of the Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ). Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) Governor Derick Latibeaudiere will likely survive in his position despite continued friction with the MFPS, even as the MFPS seeks resumes for a potential replacement. ¶2. (C) Prime Minister (PM) Bruce Golding is 23 months into his administration, and the second staff shake up for the year indicates he is still searching for the right leadership mix to achieve his campaign goals of job creation, economic growth, and spending reform. Golding appears disappointed with the performance of key Ministers who have spent far too much time delivering speeches on grand future plans with little actual implementation or measurable results. Golding has also relied too heavily on a few key top performers such as Wehby and Chung and overburdened them with multiple major tasks. Wehby and Chung worked on the privatization of parastatals including Air Jamaica, tax reform, and conducted negotiations with multilaterals such as the Inter-American Development Bank (IADB),the World Bank, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Golding neglected to prepare in advance for their telegraphed departure, and seems to have failed in trying to aggressively recruit more top talent to tackle the range of challenges facing the GOJ. END SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS Ministry of Finance Shuffles the Deck -------------- ¶3. (C) The July 31 departure of Minister without Portfolio Don Wehby and Financial Advisor Dennis Chung leaves behind a noticeable leadership void in the MFPS that will need to be filled quickly. Both men were results-oriented and were responsible for a wide range of issues facing the Ministry. (NOTE: The GOJ relied heavily on Wehby, who initiated negotiations for the return to the IMF. He is being groomed to eventually take over Jamaica,s largest conglomerate, Grace-Kennedy. END NOTE). Despite Wehby and Chung telegraphing their departure for nearly a year, the MFPS is just getting around to short-listing their replacements. Crooks Packs Her Bags... -------------- ¶4. (C) Financial Secretary (FS) Sharon Crooks was asked to resign from her permanent secretary level position and will be replaced by PIOJ Director General Wesley Hughes. (NOTE: The PIOJ serves as the GOJ,s policy and planning agency, particularly in the areas of economic and social development programs. END NOTE). Crooks, who previously served as an Advisor to the Director General in the Tax Authority, was appointed to the FS position in May 2008. Despite having strong support from Minister Audley Shaw, Crooks raised red flags with Post and the Canadian and UK High Commissions, as well as Ministry colleagues, when she refused repeatedly to be vetted by Jamaican polygraphers (Reftel A). ¶5. (C) Darlene Morrison, Deputy FS for the Economic Division, is acting as FS until Hughes arrives. A PIOJ source said that Customs Commissioner Danville Walker was Minister Shaw,s first choice, but PM Golding, after consulting with private sector leaders, refused to move Walker. (COMMENT: Walker is viewed as a star performer and has been making significant headway in reforming a corrupt and disorganized Customs Department, which many in Jamaica thought would be an impossible task. END COMMENT. During her short tenure, Crooks had moved out some MSPS senior staff, who now are returning to the Ministry. This includes Ann-Marie Rhoden, who was Deputy FS in charge of Public Enterprises. ...But Where Will She Land? -------------- ¶6. (C) Crooks is protected in her public sector employment status, so the GOJ either has to buy out her employment contract or transfer her to another job with the same level of salary and benefits. She was offered the Permanent Secretary position in the Ministry of Energy, but apparently does not want the job. Such a move would create significant challenges for an already embattled ministry. PM Golding removed former Energy Minister Clive Mullings and his Permanent Secretary Jean Dixon in April, (Reftel B). Mullings was replaced by James Robertson as Minister and Marcia Forbes was brought in as Permanent Secretary. Forbes has been aggressively working to transform the Ministry and address Jamaica,s serious energy and power generation concerns. (NOTE: Jamaica has an antiquated power generation system and per hour kilowatt energy rates of near 32 cents, the highest in the region, (Reftel C) END NOTE). ¶7. (C) Forbes told Emboffs that she has not been informed of any pending changes, but has received phone calls from political contacts congratulating her on her promotion to the Office of the Prime Minister. Forbes is considered a solid performer; her possible departure would deliver another major blow to the Energy Ministry and leave Robertson short-handed. (COMMENT: The situation would be even worse if Crooks were appointed Permanent Secretary, as she would seem to lack the personality and core competency to manage the portfolio. END COMMENT). Hughes Answers the FS Call -------------- ¶8. (C) As for the expected new MFPS FS, Hughes has spent his entire professional life in academia and in the public sector. He is respected by public and should be well accepted by technocrats throughout the GOJ. Although the announcement has not been made public, Hughes appears to have accepted the position, but it is not clear how soon he will assume the duties. According to PIOJ sources, before Hughes took the job he was assured that he would have ample autonomy to bring in some of his own talent. PM Golding allegedly told Hughes that he intends to become more active in the affairs of the MFPS, possibly indicating that PM Golding is losing confidence in Shaw,s leadership. Third Round of Shake Ups in the Works? -------------- ¶9. (C) PM Golding,s suspected concerns with Shaw,s leadership could also set the stage for a third round of political reshuffling. Since taking office, Shaw has been aggressive in pushing for a tax amnesty and in reaching out to the multilaterals such as the World Bank and the IADB. These measures initially won him public support; however, he appears to have slowed down in more recent months and does not always follow through on implementation after grand announcements. Furthermore, he backed Crooks for too long even after it become clear that she lacked the capacity to serve in the FS position. Golding already has moved economist Wayne Henry from the Ministry of Agriculture to the Ministry of Finance to serve as an advisor to Shaw. There are rumors that Golding may possibly be looking to replace Shaw down the line. Who is Coming to the Ministry Finance? -------------- ¶10. (C) In addition to serving as President of PSOJ, Chris Zacca is also Deputy Chairman of the Sandals Group of Companies owned by Gordon &Butch8 Stewart. Zacca is set to take a major position in the JLP-led government, either in the MFPS or the Office of the Prime Minister. (NOTE: Stewart is the owner of Sandals resorts, Appliance Traders Limited, a Honda dealership, the Observer newspaper, and one time majority shareholder of Air Jamaica. He has several other investments, and is possibly the most powerful player in Jamaican society. END NOTE). Zacca could be joined by the respected economist and Observer journalist Keith Collister. A silent supporter of the JLP, Collister told Emboffs on August 12 that he is not aware of his imminent appointment to a GOJ position, but Delano Seiveright, an important JLP strategist, confirmed that both Zacca and Collister are being recruited for GOJ positions. He elaborated to say that Collister should have been a first choice by the JLP for a Ministerial-level position in the MFPS when they took power in September 2007. The Butch Is Back -------------- ¶11. (C) The possible Zacca/Collister two-pronged appointment could be Stewart,s attempt to gain even greater influence in the JLP-led government. He held a similar level of influence in the previous PNP-led administration until he fell out of favor following his mismanagement of Air Jamaica after taking it over from the GOJ. It has been alleged that Stewart sold discount airline tickets on the national carrier to fill his hotel rooms and was less concerned with the profitability of the airline. After the GOJ took control of the airline back from Stewart, his level of influence in the PNP party dropped. In response he used his influence to campaign against the PNP, helping to facilitate the JLP,s historic victory in the 2007 national elections. Stewart continues to use the pages of the Observer to criticize the opposition PNP as well as economic rivals such as the Spanish-owned hotels on the North Coast and John Issa-owned SuperClubs, both of which have created greater competition for Sandals, all-inclusive resorts. Bank of Jamaica -------------- ¶12. (C) As the GOJ makes its return to a borrowing relationship with the IMF, the JLP-led government is being forced to rely on Derick Latibeaudiere, the Governor of the Bank of Jamaica (Central Bank). To his credit, Latibeaudiere has sufficient knowledge and experience in this area, but he appears to be losing the confidence of his boss, MFPS Minister Shaw. (Reftel D),an issue that was jokingly referenced by reporters at the Governors, Quarterly Press Briefing on August 12. Latibeaudiere is a skilled survivor who, despite being a JLP supporter, was able to be hired on by a PNP-led administration. He also has survived a low-intensity public scandal relating to a USD 700,000 mortgage provided by the bank without adequate collateral in August 2008, as well as public concerns over the years about his generous salary, one of the highest in the GOJ. Finance Looking for BOJ CVs -------------- ¶13. (C) Although not the most competent technocrat, Latibeaudiere is a talented strategist who surrounds himself with highly skilled advisors--including Deputy Governor for Research and Economic Programming Myrtle Halsall, who was rumored to have been offered Hughes previous job at PIOJ, but turned it down. In the August 12 press briefing Latibeaudiere was asked by a reporter about Halsall,s suspected departure, and he responded that she would remain at the BOJ. Halsall, who was seated next to him at the time, did not comment. There has been historical antagonism between the MFPS and the BOJ; the former blames the latter for tight monetary policy which leads to high interest rates, while the BOJ in turn blames MFPS for fiscal indiscipline. This war of words took a new turn when Shaw recently made thinly veiled attacks against the BOJ for hiking interest rates to as high as 24 percent per annum. (Reftel E). Latibeaudiere Likely to Survive -------------- ¶14. (C) Latibeaudiere,s long term future at the BOJ remains uncertain; a former personal assistant of Shaw,s has asked Post about resumes for potential candidates to possibly replace Latibeaudiere. However, the cost of buying out Latibeaudiere's remaining employment contract, as well has hiring a replacement, are really beyond the capacity of GOJ finances at this time. Also, the JLP is not likely to want to change the BOJ Governor during negotiations with the IMF, since this is an area in which Latibeaudiere is skilled. His long term survival may depend on future leadership changes at MFPS. COMMENT AND ANALYSIS -------------- ¶15. (C) PM Golding is 23 months into his administration, and the second major staff shake up since April indicates he is still searching for the right leadership mix to achieve his campaign goals of job creation, attracting foreign investment, rooting out corruption, and addressing spiraling crime. He appears disappointed with the performance of key Ministers who have spent far too much time delivering speeches on grand future plans with little actual implementation or measurable results. Golding has also relied too heavily on a few key top performers such as Wehby and Chung and overburdened them with multiple major tasks. Golding neglected to prepare in advance for their telegraphed departure, and seems to have failed in trying to aggressively recruit more top talent to tackle the range of challenges facing the GOJ. ¶16. (C) Furthermore, Golding, having subsumed several portfolios under the Office of the Prime Minister (e.g. Environment, Telecommunications, the Business Development Approval Process),appears to be micromanaging as PM instead of providing a macro-level JLP vision for the country. He also speaks frequently of &tough decisions8 and &painful choices8 that need to be made in the face of the major economic downturn, but over the past few months there have been no major policy shifts to indicate implementation of such choices. END COMMENT AND ANALYSIS. MOSS