JAMAICA: GOVERNING PARTY TO CHALLENGE PARLIAMENTARY

UNCLAS KINGSTON 000452

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

DEPT PASS TO EC CARICOM COLLECTIVE FOR INFO

STATE FOR WHA/CAR (ACADIEUX)
(VDEPIRRO) (WSMITH) WHA/EPSC (MROONEY) (FCORNEILLE)
EEB/ESC/IEC/EPC (MCMANUS)
SANTO DOMINGO FOR FCS AND FAS
TREASURY FOR ERIN NEPHEW
INR/RES (RWARNER)

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV ECON SOCI JM XL
SUBJECT: JAMAICA: GOVERNING PARTY TO CHALLENGE PARLIAMENTARY
QUALIFICATIONS OF OPPOSITION LEGISLATORS

REF: A. KINGSTON 232

B. KINGSTON 436

C. 08 KINGSTON 398

D. KINGSTON 405

E. KINGSTON 315

Summary
--------------


1. (U) Summary: In reaction to protracted legal challenges against
the qualifications of four of his ruling Jamaica Labour Party's
(JLP) Members of Parliament (MP),Prime Minister (PM) Bruce Golding
indicated on May 29 that he would consider mounting similar efforts
against "several" sitting MPs from the opposition People's National
Party (PNP) on dual citizenship grounds. Undeterred, the PNP
claimed it may challenge still more "Government members" alleged to
be ineligible. A series of by-elections based on such legal
challenges could fundamentally alter Jamaica's political landscape,
paralyze the nation's political system during a time of turmoil and
public safety concerns, heighten public cynicism over government
credibility and fiscal priorities, and perhaps force Golding to call
a snap general election. End Summary.

Background
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2. (U) The constitutional dispute arose following the September 2007
general election that swept the PNP out of power after eighteen
years and returned the JLP to Gordon House. Four PNP candidates
subsequently filed electoral petitions in court against the JLP
candidates who had bested them at the ballot box, contending that
the Jamaican constitution prohibited from nomination for public
office any candidate who had expressed "allegiance" to a foreign
power. In February, 2009, the Supreme Court ruled that JLP MP Daryl
Vaz's August 2007 nomination had been unconstitutional because of
his dual U.S.-Jamaican citizenship and the fact that he had applied
for and traveled on a U.S. passport. Vaz had renounced his U.S.
citizenship prior to the ruling and subsequently won re-election to
his West Portland constituency in the March by-election (Reftel A).


3. (U) Meanwhile, Jamaica is preparing for a June 16 by-election to
fill another seat vacated when the Supreme Court ruled May 21 that
JLP incumbent Gregory Mair had also been constitutionally ineligible
when nominated in 2007 due to his dual Jamaican/Venezuelan
citizenship (Reftel B). Having now renounced his Venezuelan
citizenship, Mair will face PNP candidate Granville Valentine to
represent the North East St. Catherine constituency in Parliament.
Two additional PNP challenges against JLP MPs are also likely to
result in by-elections over the summer (Reftel B). Were the PNP to
win two or more of those races, the ruling JLP would lose its
slender 31-28 majority in Parliament (Note: Because of the Court's
ruling, Mair's seat is temporarily vacant. End Note),and PM
Golding probably would be forced to call a snap general election.

Tit for Tat
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4. (U) The PNP's electoral challenges have clearly irritated
Golding's administration, paralyzed parliamentary action on a number
of budgetary and public safety measures, and cast a pall of
uncertainty over Jamaican politics. Speaking to reporters on May
29, Golding said he had instructed Government of Jamaica (GOJ)
attorneys to challenge the legitimacy of "several" PNP MPs.
Although he mentioned no names, the PM claimed that as many as six
seats were under investigation and that the JLP had "irrefutable
evidence" of ineligibility in some cases, as well as "evidence that
will have to be tested" in others.


5. (U) In return, PNP Opposition Leader Portia Simpson Miller
threatened to file more challenges against sitting JLP MPs, although
the PNP acknowledged that at least two of its MPs do in fact have
dual citizenship and would be vulnerable to the same types of legal
challenges they've raised against the JLP MPs. The two in question
are widely believed to be Sharon Hay Webster of the South Central
St. Catherine constituency and Ian Hayles of the Hanover Western
constituency.


6. (U) Several MPs are also believed to have Legal Permanent
Residency (LPR) in the U.S., which also could raise a number of
eligibility questions under Jamaican law and the Jamaican
Constitution. According to Article V, Section 39 (1)(b) of the
Jamaican Constitution, an otherwise eligible candidate for public


office must have been "ordinarily resident in Jamaica for the
immediately preceding twelve months" prior to nomination. However,
the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) might consider an LPR who
has spent such a long period abroad to have abandoned his or her
residency. To maintain residency status, LPRs who remain outside of
the U.S. for more than a year must obtain a reentry permit or a
returning resident visa. Furthermore, DHS regulations prohibit LPRs
from moving to another country with the intention of living there
permanently, while the Jamaican Constitution requires that eligible
candidates for public office be "ordinarily resident" in Jamaica.
It may be problematic for a Jamaican LPR to meet the constitutional
requirements for election to Parliament without jeopardizing his or
her U.S. residency status.

Conclusion
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6. (U) In the past, the PM has been critical of resorting to the
courts to overturn election results in particular constituencies,
calling it a "blatant attempt to constitutionally overthrow" the
JLP-led government. However, his recent announcement that the JLP
might challenge the eligibility of sitting PNP MPs suggests that the
PM and his administration are reconsidering that position. A series
of by-elections based on such legal challenges could fundamentally
alter Jamaica's political landscape, paralyze the nation's political
system during a time of turmoil and public safety concerns, heighten
public cynicism over government credibility and fiscal priorities,
and perhaps force Golding to call a snap general election. Eight or
more by-elections over the course of several months could
potentially bolster the JLP's slim 31-28 majority and provide
Golding with the political muscle to push through his austerity
budget and several other major pieces of pending legislation.
Alternatively, given Jamaica's dire problems of crime and
unemployment, a snap election might return control of Gordon House
to Simpson Miller's PNP.


7. (U) An obvious solution might be for the PM to dissolve the
government, call snap elections, and settle the issue once and for
all, this time presumably with eligible candidates more thoroughly
vetted by their respective parties. The PM has resisted such an
option, however, as counter to the "mandate of the people." When
the dual nationality issue first emerged following the 2007 general
elections, Golding sent feelers to the PNP proposing a mutual
agreement whereby the two parties would refrain from contesting any
by-elections ordered by the courts, thus maintaining the political
status quo while allowing GOJ to address the nation's pressing
economic and public safety issues; the PNP, however, was unreceptive
to such entreaties (Reftel C). More recently, Golding suggested
that the JLP and PNP could resolve the dual nationality issue
amicably through legislation, although the PNP has insisted on tying
the issue to other constitutional reforms; moreover, many insist
that constitutional provisions may only be altered through a
national referendum. In the current electoral climate, given
Jamaica's economic woes (Reftel D and E) and the austere budget
Golding's administration has presented to Parliament, it is by no
means certain that a snap election would return the JLP to power,
much less bolster its numbers in Parliament. End Comment.

Heg