JAMAICA: PARTIES NOMINATE CANDIDATES FOR JUNE 16

UNCLAS KINGSTON 000436 SIPDIS SENSITIVE DEPT PASS EC CARICOM COLLECTIVE FOR INFO STATE FOR WHA/CAR (ACADIEUX) (VDEPIRRO) (WSMITH) WHA/EPSC (MROONEY) (FCORNEILLE) EEB/ESC/IEC/EPC (MCMANUS) SANTO DOMINGO FOR FCS AND FAS TREASURY FOR ERIN NEPHEW INR/RES (RWARNER) E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV ECON SOCI JM XL SUBJECT: JAMAICA: PARTIES NOMINATE CANDIDATES FOR JUNE 16 BY-ELECTION REF: A. 07 KINGSTON 1336 ¶B. 07 KINGSTON 1389 ¶C. 08 KINGSTON 156 ¶D. 08 KINGSTON 245 ¶E. 08 KINGSTON 280 ¶F. 08 KINGSTON 310 ¶G. 08 KINGSTON 398 ¶H. 08 KINGSTON 1034 ¶I. 09 KINGSTON 221 ¶J. 09 KINGSTON 232 Summary -------------- ¶1. (U) Summary: On May 29, Jamaica's two major political parties announced their candidates to contest the June 16 by-election in the North East St. Catherine constituency. The ruling Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) selected its incumbent Member of Parliament (MP), Desmond Gregory Mair, who earlier this month was declared to have been ineligible when originally nominated in 2007 due to his dual Jamaican/Venezuelan citizenship. Mair has since renounced his Venezuelan citizenship. The opposition People's National Party (PNP) nominated Granville Valentine, a trade unionist and party activist new to electoral politics. Early indicators suggest that the JLP candidate should easily retain the seat, although how the electorate will react to Jamaica's continuing economic malaise and the government's budget cuts and public sector wage freezes may favor the PNP. End Summary. Supreme Court Orders By-Election -------------- ¶2. (U) Prime Minister (PM) Bruce Golding announced the by-election following the Supreme Court's May 21 ruling that Mair had been ineligible for his party's nomination for the September 2007 general election because, at the time of his party nomination in August 2007, he had held dual Jamaican/Venezuelan citizenship. The election petition, filed by Phyllis Mitchell, Mair's 2007 PNP opponent, was one of four filed by defeated PNP candidates against their JLP opponents following the September 2007 general election that brought the JLP back to power after 18 years. The ruling was consistent with the Court's judgment against JLP MP Daryl Vaz in February 2009 that forced a by-election in the West Portland constituency the following month (Reftel C). Vaz had renounced his U.S. citizenship following the ruling, and won the by-election handily (Reftel J). ¶3. (U) The Court's ruling was based on a joint agreement between Mair and Mitchell in which Mair admitted to holding a Venezuelan passport on which he had occasionally traveled. Nevertheless, due to his dual Venezuelan/Jamaican citizenship, Mair agreed that he was not properly nominated on August 7, 2007 to contest the September 2007 general election. Section 42 of Jamaica's Constitution forbids anyone who has sworn allegiance to a foreign power, other than Commonwealth states, to contest a general election. Mair immediately announced that he would be contesting the by-election, noting that he had renounced his Venezuelan citizenship shortly after being nominated in August 2007. ¶4. (SBU) Two similar petitions remain undecided, although the Court's previous rulings seem to suggest that those cases will result in by-elections as well. Were the PNP to win two or more of those races, the ruling JLP would lose its slender 31-28 majority in Parliament (Note: Due to the Court's ruling, Mair's seat is now vacant. End Note) and PM Golding would probably be forced to call a snap general election. However, Mair appears to be the favorite and even PNP sources suggest that they don't have much hope of recapturing the seat. Historically, Jamaican by-elections usually result in the seat's return to the incumbent party; of the 36 by-elections since 1944, only three have resulted in a loss by the incumbent party. Valentine -------------- ¶4. (SBU) On May 24, the PNP announced that their candidate for the seat would be Granville Valentine, a National Workers Union trade unionist and North East St. Catherine's local party constituency chairman. Valentine gave his first speech as a candidate at the opening of the PNP's new constituency office in North East St. Catherine, alleging that the JLP "has no regard for poor people and no regard for the working class..." ¶5. (SBU) However, Embassy contacts within the PNP were skeptical of Valentine's chances, noting that the JLP enjoyed the advantage in terms of financial resources, both public and private, and were far more organized on the ground. Although the electorate is frustrated by high unemployment, inflation, a stagnant economy, and rampant gang-related crime, the Golding government has been successful in diverting responsibility for these issues to global economic conditions and/or the previous PNP governments. ¶6. (SBU) One PNP operative expressed incredulity to PolOff that his party hadn't selected a candidate weeks earlier, given that the court's ruling was widely anticipated. According to media sources, some in the PNP were wary of mounting a challenge due to the party's fundraising difficulties and the lingering effects of a leadership challenge in September 2008, in addition to concerns that voters would be weary of electioneering so soon after the 2007 general election. Media reports noted that some in the constituency favored the nomination of Abe Dabdoub, the former MP for the constituency who was defeated by Daryl Vaz in West Portland in 2007 (Reftel G). ¶7. (SBU) It was perhaps telling that PNP leader and former Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller did not attend Valentine's announcement. The charismatic Simpson Miller had mounted a high profile campaign in favor of Kenneth Rowe, the PNP candidate Vaz defeated with 58 percent of the vote in the March 2009 by-election (Reftel J). A similar effort followed by another defeat in the North East St. Catherine by-election might further tarnish Simpson Miller's reputation and raise doubts about her leadership in the party. Previous reporting has intimated that Simpson Miller may not have been fully aware of the potential repercussions of such a litigious approach to contesting the 2007 general election results (Reftel G),suggesting she might now regret the position to which such a strategy has led the PNP. Mair -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Meanwhile, the JLP appeared to be pulling out all the stops to ensure Mair's reelection to the seat, which he won with 54 percent of the vote in 2007. Warren Newby, president of Generation 2000, the JLP's youth organization, was named campaign manager, while Shahine Robinson, JLP MP for the St. Ann North East constituency, was named campaign director; interestingly, Robinson is the plaintiff in one of the two remaining PNP election petition court cases due to her joint U.S./Jamaican citizenship at the time of her 2007 nomination. "Vulgarly Partisan" -------------- ¶8. (U) The PNP has described as "vulgarly partisan" three major government Labour Day public works projects on May 25 in the three constituencies in which by-elections are scheduled or likely, reflecting the greater PNP concern that government spending in the districts since 2007 might sway voters toward the JLP. ¶9. (U) Media reports from North East St. Catherine meanwhile suggest road construction, water projects and jobs are more important to voters than the prospect of another by-election. Mair is apparently perceived as a hard worker who has paid attention to the constituency and brought much-needed road improvements to several districts. Some local citizens interviewed expressed the view that Mair would win easily and that the by-election was a waste of money. Outstanding Cases -------------- ¶8. (U) The two remaining qualification challenges are scheduled for court hearings in the coming months. Failed PNP candidate Richard Azan's challenge to the JLP's Michael Stern's qualifications to hold the North West Clarendon seat due to his dual U.S./Jamaican citizenship is scheduled for July 27, with the challenge to North East St. Ann's Shahine Robinson, also a dual U.S./Jamaican citizen, to come later. Sauce for the Goose... -------------- ¶9. (U) Meanwhile, the Golding Administration has hinted that the JLP might raise similar legal challenges to the qualifications of at least one sitting PNP MP if the PNP does not cooperate on a constitutional resolution to the dual citizenship eligibility issue. Sharon Hay-Webster, the PNP MP for the South Central St. Catherine constituency, has admitted to being a U.S. citizen and to having traveled on her U.S. passport, while Ian Hayles, the PNP MP for Hanover Western has also admitted that he did not renounce his U.S. citizenship until after his election (Reftel F) ¶10. (U) In the Appeal Court's written judgment in the Vaz case, Court of Appeal President Seymour Panton called on legislators to amend the Constitution to clarify the qualifications necessary to serve in Parliament and in other positions of authority, expressing dismay that a citizen of a Commonwealth country would be eligible while a U.S. citizen in the large Jamaican-American diaspora would not. The PNP, however, has insisted that dual citizenship eligibility should be addressed in the context of wider constitutional reforms, perhaps requiring public referenda. Conclusion -------------- ¶11. (SBU) Following its defeat in the September 2007 general election, the PNP adopted the strategy of challenging the nominations of four JLP MPs with the goal of peeling off enough seats to strip the JLP of its 31-28 majority and take over the government once again. However, given the party's organizational and financial disadvantages, it does not appear that the PNP will be able to follow these judicial successes with electoral victories. Should Mair win by a greater percentage of the vote than he did in 2007, as Vaz did in the March 2009 by-election, it could prove an embarrassment to the PNP and a much-needed show of support for Golding's administration, not to mention a troubling omen for the PNP's chances in the two remaining by-elections. ¶12. (SBU) Despite formidable economic challenges at home, a burgeoning crime wave, and the prospects of labor unrest, the current JLP government seems well-poised to survive until the next general election in 2012. Nevertheless, with the narrowest parliamentary majority in Jamaican history, Golding's room for political maneuver will be limited and he will not have the luxury of alienating any members of the JLP majority. Golding will likely not risk a snap general election to increase his party's parliamentary majority until the country's economy has stabilized. End Comment. HEG