JAMAICA: APPELLATE COURT RULING DISPELS PROSPECT

C O N F I D E N T I A L KINGSTON 000156 SIPDIS DEPT FOR WHA/CAR (BPREMONT, WSMITH, VDEPIRRO) INR/IAA (PKNIGHT) TREASURY FOR IA/WH (ERIN NEPHEW) PASS TO CENTRAL AMERICAN CARIBBEAN COLLECTIVE E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/27/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR ASEC SOCI KCOR CARICOM IBRD IDB, CDB, JM, XL SUBJECT: JAMAICA: APPELLATE COURT RULING DISPELS PROSPECT OF IMMINENT SNAP NATIONAL ELECTION; PRIME MINISTER BRUCE GOLDING'S TENUOUS HOLD ON POWER SECURE FOR THE MOMENT REF: A. 08 KINGSTON 1034 (0091429Z DEC 08) ¶B. 08 KINGSTON 494 (301353Z MAY 08) ¶C. 08 KINGSTON 409 (091742Z MAY 08) ¶D. 08 KINGSTON 398 (071203Z MAY 08) ¶E. 08 KINGSTON 364 (291558Z APR 09) ¶F. 08 KINGSTON 310 (141908Z APR 08) ¶G. 07 KINGSTON 1336 (042044Z SEP 07) Classified By: CDA JAMES T. HEG, Reasons 1.5 (B) AND (D) Summary, Analysis, and Comment -------------- 1.(C) A long-awaited ruling by the Court of Appeals has dispelled the prospect of an imminent snap national election, and should enable Prime Minister (PM) Bruce Golding's Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) to cling to its slender 32-28 majority in Parliament -- at least for the moment. This is a relief: reeling from gang-related crime, inflation, negative growth, high unemployment, and damages from hurricanes Dean and Gustav, Jamaica could ill-afford what would have been a fractious, costly national contest, probably marred by violence. 2.(C) Instead, a series of by-elections over coming months in several contested constituencies now appears likely ) a more manageable prospect. Given the JLP's razor-thin parliamentary majority, the stakes will be high in each of these anticipated by-elections. Golding's room for political maneuver will remain narrow: he cannot afford to alienate any JLP Members of Parliament (MPs). National elections are not constitutionally required until September, 2012; he will not want to risk a snap national election in hopes of strengthening the JLP's hold on power until economic recovery is at last in sight. End Summary and Analysis. Background: a Labyrinthine Legal Odyssey -------------- 3.(C) For years considered a political bastion of the People's National Party (PNP),the West Portland parliamentary seat has been in litigious contention since the September, 2007 national election (reftel G),when the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP)'s popular young candidate Daryl Vaz attracted 6,977 votes to 6,033 for PNP candidate (formerly of the JLP) Abe Dabdoub, a formidable constitutional lawyer with a history of contesting election results via the courts (reftel F). Following his defeat, Dabdoub filed a petition alleging that Vaz had been improperly nominated as a candidate because, contrary to the Jamaican constitution, as a dual national he had sworn allegiance to a foreign power (the USA) which was not a member of the UK Commonwealth, and thus could not serve in Parliament. For his part, Vaz renounced U.S. citizenship after the election. 4.(SBU) In April, 2008 Chief Justice Zaila McCalla of the Supreme Court, citing numerous cases of common law, ruled that, although Vaz had acquired U.S. citizenship through his American mother as a minor, subsequent renewals of his U.S. passport and its use for extensive travel had demonstrated his voluntary allegiance to the USA; therefore, she disqualified Vaz from serving in Parliament (reftel G). McCalla further found that, although the PNP legal team had requested Dabdoub be instated as MP, she was unable to disenfranchise the voters who had not had sufficient evidence of Vaz s ineligibility. Therefore, she ruled there must be a by-election to determine a new representative for West Portland. As both sides appealed her ruling, McCalla temporarily suspended Vaz's disqualification pending a final ruling by the Appellate Court. March 23 By-Election in West Portland: Wider Implications -------------- -------------- 5.(C) Finally, on February 27 Chief Justice Seymour Panton of the Court of Appeals upheld McCalla's ruling that a by-election be held, and Golding has set March 23 as the date. Vaz appears likely to retain (or technically, regain) the West Portland seat. But the implications are wider: to date, similar legal challenges are pending against three other JLP MPs: -- Shahine Robinson (North East St. Ann); -- Gregory Mair (North East St. Catherine); and -- Michael Stern (North West Clarendon). As a clear legal precedent, the Appeals Court's ruling on Vaz may well influence the outcomes of their respective legal cases in coming months. (Comment: In Post s estimate, Robinson would be assured of victory in a by-election. Mair and Stern also would be favored, but conceivably could lose if matched against well-organized, popular PNP opponents. Moreover, other such legal challenges against sitting MPs of either party may yet emerge. Given the JLP's razor-thin parliamentary majority, the stakes will be high in each of the anticipated forthcoming by-elections. Moreover, PM Golding's room for political maneuver will remain narrow: he cannot afford to alienate any JLP MPs. National elections are not constitutionally required until September, 2012; Golding will not want to risk a snap national election in hopes of strengthening the JLP's hold on power until economic recovery is at last in sight. End Comment.) Note: Via Septel, Post will provide further analysis, to include perspectives of, and prospects for, the opposition PNP. End Note. HEG