Jamaica Outlines Position For Copenhagen Climate Change

UNCLAS KINGSTON 001040 SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR WHA/CAR (VDEPIRRO) (WSMITH) (JMACK-WILSON) S/SECC (JPERSHING) WHA/EPSC (MROONEY) (FCORNEILLE) (FCOLON) OES (LSPERLING) EEB/ESC/IEC/EPC (MMCMANUS) INR/RES (RWARNER) INR/I (SMCCORMICK) SANTO DOMINGO FOR FCS AND FAS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON SENV UNEP ENRG EINV PREL PINR SOCI KGHG XL JM SUBJECT: Jamaica Outlines Position For Copenhagen Climate Change Conference Summary -------------- ¶1. (SBU) As the Government of Jamaica (GOJ) prepares to attend the upcoming Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen, they are also finalizing the Second National Communication (SNC) on the United Nations Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) as required by treaty signatories. The GOJ reports their own 46 percent increase in carbon dioxide emissions, but outlines as their negotiating position unrealistic emission reduction requirements by developed countries of 45 percent from 1990 levels by 2020. The Copenhagen team from the GOJ knows the outcome of the conference will be uncertain, but are hoping for some progress. End Summary. 1.5 Degrees Or Die? -------------- ¶2. (SBU) On 25 November 2009, EmbOff and USAID representative attended the GOJ's public presentation of the draft SNC sponsored by the United Nations Development Program (UNDP). Two stated goals of the panel were to outline the SNC and to provide stakeholders with an opportunity to ask questions of members of the GOJ's Copenhagen delegation, which will include Minister of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade Kenneth Baugh and approximately eight other participants. Delegates at the presentation included Leonie Barnaby, Office of the Prime Minister; Jeffery Spooner, Climate Branch Head, Jamaica Meteorological Service (JMS),and Clifford Mahlung, JMS Lead Climate Change Negotiator. The GOJ has joined the 39 member Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) in calling for action to limit temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius. The AOSIS's negotiating positions include: -- Developed nations must reduce their overall CO2 levels by more than 45 percent of 1990 levels by the year 2020, to be followed by a reduction in CO2 levels by more than 95 percent of 1990 levels by the year 2050; -- Limit atmospheric CO2 to 350 parts per million; -- Funding for adaptation (total costs for all countries is estimated at USD 100 billion per year); -- Compensation for loss and damage; -- Technology transfer and capacity building; -- Non-Annex I and non major emitter countries must adopt low carbon programs for significant deviation from the current baseline; -- A five-year second commitment period from 2013-2017; -- A shared vision by all countries to peak CO2 emissions by 2020, with a 85 percent reduction by 2050. Copenhagen Is Uncertain -------------- ¶3. (U) Spooner stated that in Barcelona, the EU and Australia were shown how such dramatic cuts were possible. Additionally, Mr. Mahlung noted that the outcome in Copenhagen is uncertain. When asked what leverage Jamaica has over developed countries, he mentioned the AOSIS demonstration in Barcelona and bilateral pressure through the G77. He said that it is unclear what a "politically binding agreement," as opposed to a treaty, might mean. When faced with what could be perceived as anti-US sentiment from one member of the audience, the delegates were quick to place discussions in perspective, pointing out that all of Jamaica's environmental issues could not be blamed on global warming. Jamaica Among the Most Vulnerable -------------- -- ¶4. (SBU) Mr. Mahlung claimed that Jamaica is among the 20 countries most vulnerable to climate change, due to its heavy reliance on beach-front tourism and low-elevation population centers. While less than one percent of greenhouse gas emissions were attributed to small island developing states, Jamaica's SNC shows their greenhouse gas emissions increasing by 46 percent from 2000-2005, largely due to energy and transportation sector growth. Within Jamaica, awareness of climate change has increased from less than 50 percent of the population in 2005 to more than 70 percent this year. One uniquely Jamaican outreach effort is being employed by popular local reggae artists: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O3-NAzB8fDU. Comment -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Jamaica's negotiating team for Copenhagen appeared well-prepared. They have been monitoring the proposed Kerry-Boxer Senate climate change bill. However, it is unclear how the massive divide in negotiating positions will be bridged for a comprehensive agreement. During the conference, they hinted at a request for USAID assistance to quantify the projected impact of global warming as their SNC contains several scenarios and indices, but no dollar value was assigned to the impact of global warming. The GOJ projects population decreases in the future due to emigration, but with a bleak economic outlook, heavy reliance on vulnerable industries, and a location in an area susceptible to hurricanes, Jamaica's resilience to the effects of climate change remains uncertain. Parnell