RWANDA - MONTHLY POLITICAL ROUND-UP

C O N F I D E N T I A L KIGALI 000078 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/23/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM RW SUBJECT: RWANDA - MONTHLY POLITICAL ROUND-UP REF: A. KIGALI 810 ¶B. KIGALI 872 ¶C. 08 KIGALI 750 Classified By: Ambassador W. Stuart Symington for reason 1.4 (b) & (d) ¶1. (U) In this edition: - Efforts to Form New Political Party Continue - Ombudsman on Corruption - EU Final Election Report Issued - Intel Chiefs Meet in Rwanda New Party Holds Assembly and Press Conference -------------- ¶2. (C) Supporters of the newly-announced Social Ideal Party (SIP) held their first Constituent Assembly in Kigali on January 18, seeking to demonstrate sufficient strength in Rwanda's 30 districts to be registered as the country's tenth political party. This followed the press conference announcing the formation of the new party in December (reftel A). At the organizing event, party founder Bernard Ntaganda and other senior officers pledged SIP would be a fully independent political party striving to improve the lot of ordinary Rwandans. Ntaganda assailed what he contended was the growing gap between rich and poor in Rwanda and the lack of open debate on important national issues. Following the election by acclamation of party officers, party supporters presented identity documents to a notary public for verification of their residence and citizenship (Note: New parties must gain signatures of at least 200 citizens, with a minimum of five from each district. End Note). Ntaganda told embassy staff that he would submit the requisite documentation to the Ministry of Local Government soon. ¶3. (C) Comment. Rwanda has one dominant party, the governing Rwanda Patriotic Front (RPF),two small parties which struggle to remain in the public eye and raise funds and attract members, and six tiny parties that exist only as RPF coalition partners. None has shown significant political differences with the RPF in the past. The SIP organizers' first public speech included uncharacteristic criticism of the GOR. If the party succeeds in winning recognition and continues such criticism, that would reflect a significant change in Rwanda,s political landscape. End comment. Ombudsman On Corruption -- Serious, but Declining, Say Surveys -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) Government of Rwanda (GOR) Ombudsman Tito Rutaremara told Pol/Econ chief January 14 that the GOR remained concerned by corruption, particularly at local levels. Expanding upon his frank comments at the National Dialogue in late December (ref B),when he castigated several categories of local officials, Rutaremara said the chief offenders in descending order are sector coordinators (Rwanda has 416 sectors),"gacaca" genocide judges, local defense force members (an upaid adjunct to the police),and "abunzi" mediators. These officials routinely demanded small bribes (generally 200 to 500 francs -- under a dollar) that are considerable sums for impoverished villagers. Rutaremara said as gacaca judges had largely completed their work, that source of corruption was now minimal. As a tactical response to sector coordinators continually "having their hands out," sector governments were being encouraged to transfer much of the coordinators' scheduling authority (the source of the corruption) to the sector executive secretaries who were better educated with (he hoped) higher personal standards of better educated with (he hoped) higher personal standards of behavior. Abunzi mediators were being retrained and local defense force personnel were increasingly being put under direct police authority (although he expressed irritation at corruption in police ranks as well). Rutaremara said rural populations in particular routinely complained about corrupt local officials, but in extensive surveys conducted by his office those same populations reportedly said corruption was gradually receding. ¶5. (C) On the national level, Rutaremara said since government ministers no longer had direct budgetary authority, corruption in their ranks was not as great a concern. The recent arrest of several permanent secretaries who do exercise direct influence over ministry budgets, remained a great concern. He noted, however, that he had received anecdotal accounts of corrupt behavior by one Minister, but his office lacked proof of wrongdoing. In response to Pol/Chief,s question whether Finance Minister James Musoni had extensive control over government appointments, Rutaremara said Musoni no longer sits on the ruling RPF's appointments committee, but continued to exercise influence through loyal subordinates who by many accounts did his bidding. ¶6. (C) Comment. Rutaremera is a rather austere founding member of the RPF. He is genuinely concerned about corruption and working to halt it. He has many allies within the government, including President Kagame; there are also powerful people who oppose his anti-corruption efforts. End comment. EU Monitoring Team Issues Final Report -------------- ¶7. (SBU) At a January 26 press conference, EU Chief Election observer Michael Cashman presented the final report of the EU Election monitoring mission to Rwanda on the September 2008 Chamber of Deputies elections. The report echoed conclusions in the preliminary EU Mission assessment issued immediately after the elections, noting a number of "fundamental shortcomings" including the fact that the "consolidation of results" was "largely non-transparent." The report also called the elections "an important step in the efforts to further institutionalize the democratic process." Cashman noted the EU Mission (composed of 101 short and long-term observers) had compiled results in only 38 polling stations out of some 15,000, and so was statistically not in a position to comment on the final vote totals. Privately Cashman emphasized the difficulty of piecing together voting totals above the voting station level. ¶8. (C) Cashman,s public and private remarks were directly contradicted by his core staff of election experts, who compiled vote totals after Cashman had departed Rwanda (reftel C). At that time, the core EU Mission team said that it pieced together informal results for approximately 25 percent of the national vote from various sources and estimated that the RPF may have won a stunning 95 percent victory By contrast, the results reported by the National Electoral Commission showed the RPF winning only 79 percent of the vote. As a result, two small parties met the five percent minimum vote and retained their seats in Parliament. ¶9. (C) Comment: As we reported at the time, the RPF,s victory reflected its dominance of the national political scene and the weakness of opposition parties. At least some core EU Mission team members concluded that only a post-election transfer of votes from the RPF to its opponents kept those parties in Parliament. End comment. Intel Chiefs Share Threat Assessments -------------- ¶10. (U) On January 21 and 22, Rwanda hosted an East African Forum of the Committee of Intelligence and Security Services in Africa (CISSA),a body established in 2004 for the regular Qin Africa (CISSA),a body established in 2004 for the regular exchange of intelligence throughout the continent. As reported in local media, Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Sudan and Djibouti attended and considered such topics as piracy, money laundering, and child and arms trafficking. A senior official at the Rwandan National Security Service told us the regional Forum meetings complement the work of a CISSA bureau and secretariat, now chaired by South Africa, which oversees the work of the five regional Forums. Participants presented their own national threat assessments and compared notes with neighboring states. Rwanda, as the current chair of the East African Forum, guided their compilation into a joint threat assessment that was forwarded to the CISSA. The Rwandan NSS official noted, "We all face different threats -- we (Rwanda) are very concerned by genocide ideology at home and in neighboring states, such as the presence of the FDLR in the Congo, while others worry about terrorism and religious extremism." SYMINGTON