WORLD BANK SEEKS DONOR SUPPORT FOR NEW

C O N F I D E N T I A L KIGALI 000074 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02-01-2014 TAGS: PREL PGOV EAID PINS MOPS RW SUBJECT: WORLD BANK SEEKS DONOR SUPPORT FOR NEW DEMOBILIZATION PROGRAM IN RWANDA Classified By: Ambassador Symington for Reasons 1.4 (b) (d) ¶1. (U) This is an action message. See para 6. ¶2. (SBU) World Bank (Bank) Country Representative Victoria Kwakwa convened a meeting January 30 seeking donor support for a proposed new Emergency demobilization and Reintegration Project with the Government of Rwanda (GOR). A team of Bank officers presented its findings as a follow-up for the previous program that expired December 31. ¶3. (SBU) The team visit coincided with ongoing joint Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and GOR military operation in the Kivus. All participants agreed the timing was propitious, given the prospect of increasing numbers of FDLR (Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda) combatants returning to Rwanda. The Bank team laid out a 18.5 million dollar program, enough to fund the return of 5,500 former combatants (with the Rwanda Demobilization and Reintegration Commission - DRC - handling family members separately),and 4,000 Rwanda Defense Force (RDF) members who Rwanda would be likely to demobilize if the FDLR were removed as a threat. The GOR offered the build-down of the RDF as a parallel effort to match the hoped-for end of armed FDLR combatants in the eastern Congo. ¶4. (SBU) The Bank will budget 8 million dollars for the program. German and Canadian mission officers at the meeting confirmed their governments would donate 2 million and 1.2 million dollars, respectively. The GOR has pledged 2 million. According to the team, the Belgian, Swedish, Norwegian, Dutch and EU missions are considering contributions, with no actual pledges yet. This leaves a budget shortfall of 5.3 million dollars. The Bank was now "pre-financing" the program to avoid any halt to the demobilization program, but has to observe legal restrictions on how much it could fund without solid pledges from donors. The Bank team hoped to have the new program formally established by April. ¶5. (C) Before the meeting, RDRC Chairman Jean Sayingoza told Pol/Econ chief that the arrival of FDLR combatants from the Congo had picked up in the last several days, with 20 coming over on January 26, and 40 on January 29 (for many months, FDLR members have come in groups of half a dozen or less). Should FDLR combatants arrive in much greater numbers, Sayingoza said the Mutobo demobilization camp in northeastern Rwanda could handle up to 5,000 persons, and could be expanded to ten or even fifteen thousand if needed. ¶6. (C) Action Request and Comment: Rwanda has an acute need to fund the Emergency Demobilization Program. Thousands of FDLR members could turn up at the border in short order if the joint military operations in the eastern Congo splinter the FDLR. DRC and Rwandan leaders appear to hope that strong, joint pressure, more than any pitched engagement, will separate hardliners from others in the FDLR and permit those who wish to do so to return to Rwanda. If they are right, that could be a significant number. Embassy encourages the Department to seek funds to support this vital program. End Action Request. SYMINGTON