OPPOSITION FIGURE NTAGANDA TO CHALLENGE KAGAME AT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KIGALI 000719

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/03/2019
TAGS: PGOV PHUM RW
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION FIGURE NTAGANDA TO CHALLENGE KAGAME AT
2010 POLLS

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Classified By: Ambassador W. Stuart Symington for reasons 1.4 (b) (d)


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: On October 25, members of the fledgling
Parti Social-Imberakuri (PS-Imberakuri) party voted
overwhelmingly to nominate party founder Bertrand Ntaganda,
an ethnic Hutu lawyer, to be their candidate for Rwanda's
2010 presidential elections. Ntaganda was a founding member
of the Parti Social Democrate (PSD),who broke with that
party in late 2008 after failing to win election to
parliament on the PSD slate. During his acceptance speech,
Ntaganda urged Rwandans not to accept election results if
they are unfair. END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) On October 25, the recently-formed PS-Imberakuri
political party held a convention and chose party founder
Bernard Ntaganda to be its candidate for Rwanda's 2010
presidential elections. Roughly 200 party delegates and 200
observers were present, including a dozen print and radio
journalists, state-run national TV, as well as polcouns and
pol FSN. The audience was overwhelmingly male, and in the
judgment of ONE local, overwhelmingly ethnic Hutu. The venue
was a conference hall rented from the local Catholic diocese
adjacent to Sainte Famille, the site of a notorious genocide
massacre. As the audience waited for the event to begin, the
organizers aired well-known Kinyarwanda songs praising
freedom and tolerance written by an iconic Rwandan musician.
The tone of the meeting was initially somewhat nervous, then
more relaxed but still restrained.


3. (SBU) Ntaganda delivered opening remarks, saying the party
was "necessary for our survival" and boasting that it had
grown remarkably fast in its short existence. Comparing it
to a mythical baby that walked on its first day of life, he
said only the ruling Rwanda Patriotic Front (RPF) party had
more members than PS-Imberakuri. The party had a
headquarters building, its own bank account, and even a
website that supporters could use to contribute money or
comments. Continuing with his remarks, Ntaganda explained
that the congress was meeting in order to choose a candidate
for the 2010 presidential elections, endorse agreements
Ntaganda signed recently with other parties outside Rwanda,
and endorse the party's stance on gacaca trials, which he
described as "an injustice to all Rwandans." Ntaganda
concluded by inviting all to speak openly and freely,
something Rwandans "have not been able to do since 1994." At
this, members of the audience cautiously waved party flags
and held up roses (the party's symbol).


4. (SBU) Following a party cadre's explanation of the voting
rules--one man, ONE vote; secret ballot-- Ntaganda and
another candidate, Jean-Claude Nzaramba, introduced
themselves and described their qualifications. Without
naming the RPF or incumbent President Paul Kagame, the party
cadre commented that "the other team is a strong team" and
urged party members to "choose a suitable candidate to oppose
him." Delegates voted, cadres collected the votes, and then
read them out ONE vote at a time, tallying them on a
chalkboard. Ntaganda won by a count of 153 votes to 12.
After it became clear he would win, the crowd applauded
politely each time Nzaramba got a vote.


5. (SBU) In his acceptance speech, Ntaganda said he was
overcome with emotions, "like a mother who just delivered a
beautiful, healthy baby." Thanking delegates for their
support, he declared that the voting process showed "the
Qsupport, he declared that the voting process showed "the
picture of democratic culture our party is fighting for" and
that Rwanda needed "fair and transparent elections like
these" on August 9, 2010. "You know who I am going to
oppose," he continued, "and there must be fair play. If
elections are not fair, Rwandans have the right to say so."
Ntaganda added that the PS-Imberakuri opposed the draft
revision of the electoral code now being considered in
parliament. According to him, it contained language
requiring citizens to accept the results of the election
(NFI). "We say no, we must not accept them," he concluded.


6. (C) BIO NOTE: Bernard Ntaganda Abdelkarim was born in
1967, in Ruhango district, Southern province. He is single
but is due to marry this month. An ethnic Hutu, he graduated
from Kabgayi seminary secondary school and then served for a
short time as assistant bourgmestre (mayor) of the former
Tambwe Commune. He helped found the Parti Social Democrate
(PSD) in 1992, and was PSD party chairman in the former
Gitarama province. He commenced law studies at the National
University of Rwanda (NUR) in Butare. After the genocide, he
was arrested and jailed for several months for alleged

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genocide-related crimes. Instead of returning to NUR he
simultaneously enrolled in law studies at Universite Libre de
Kigali--eventually obtaining a four-year degree in law--and
worked at the Rwanda Revenue Authority in the legal affairs
department. For the past several years, he has been in
private practice, and found time to earn a distance-education
MBA from the University of Maastricht. Shortly before the
2003 presidential elections, the PSD suspended Ntaganda for
one year, after he criticized PSD leaders and accused them of
allowing RPF members to join and infiltrate the PSD. In
2008, he was on the PSD's list during parliamentary
elections, but failed to win a seat. In late 2008, he quit
the PSD and decided to form his own party, the PS-Imberakuri.


7. (C) COMMENT: Ntaganda has previously circulated
communiques, but it was noteworthy that during the two-plus
hours that polcouns attended the convention, there was little
mention and no discussion of the party's platform or
substantive issues. This was primarily a meeting to validate
Ntaganda's candidacy and decisions he had already taken.
Ntaganda presented a strong opposition message, though he
greatly exaggerated his party's strength. Like the PSD, the
general consensus is that PS-Imberakuri's supporters are
virtually all ethnic Hutu. It is also probable that the
strongest base of the new party will be in southern Rwanda
where the PSD has its roots. (North-South tensions remain a
fact of Rwandan life.) If Ntaganda plays the "Hutu card" he
may mobilize that base, but he would run afoul of Rwandan law
designed to prevent a return to the violent ethnic identity
politics of the past. The law mandates strong penalties for
those whose actions constitute "divisionism" or especially
"genocide ideology." (The phrase "We are all Rwandan"
reflects continuing GOR efforts to instill a single national
Rwandan identity in place of ethnic identification.) We
expect PS-Imberakuri's actions and statements to be closely
scrutinized, both by the RPF whom Ntaganda accused of
infiltrating the PSD in the past, and by the GOR. For the
moment, Rwandan authorities appear confident that Ntaganda is
not a serious threat. That may explain their decision to
allow state-run television and radio to broadcast portions of
the event. If Ntaganda is seen to be fanning ethnic
tensions, the GOR will respond. END COMMENT.
SYMINGTON